Asia 'to eclipse' US and Europe by 2030 - US report

 

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Asia will wield more global power than the US and Europe combined by 2030, a forecast from the US intelligence community has found.

Within two decades China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy, the report adds.

It also warns of slower growth and falling living standards in advanced nations with ageing populations.

Global Trends 2030, issued to coincide with Mr Obama's second term, says it aims to promote strategic thinking.

Published every four years, the report from the National Intelligence Council (NIC) aims to draw together a wide sweep of "megatrends" driving transformation in the world.

'Slow relative decline'

The NIC suggests that by 2030, Asia will have more "overall power" than the US and Europe combined - taking into account population size, gross domestic product (GDP), military spending and investment in technology.

People raise Chinese flag in Beijing, China November 2012 The National Intelligence Council says it does not believe China will become a superpower like the US

"China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030," the report says.

"Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines."

But the report says it does not anticipate that China will emerge as a superpower in the mould of the US, forging coalitions to take on international issues.

Speaking at a news briefing, Mathew Burrows, counsellor to the National Intelligence Council said: "Being the largest economic power is important... [but] it isn't necessarily the largest economic power that always is going to be the superpower."

The "megatrends" identified by the report include individual empowerment and transfer of power from the West to the global East and South.

It highlights ageing societies and a growing middle class, as well as diminishing natural resources, as key global themes.

Within the next two decades the US will achieve energy independence, and the size of urban populations around the world will rise sharply, the report says.

But, the report adds, questions about the global economy, governance, evolving methods of conflict, regional spillover, new technologies and the future role of the US could dramatically impact the global picture over the next 20 years.

The study is the fifth in a series. The last edition was published in 2008.

 

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 35.

    Not really news this!

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 34.

    Censored again by the BBC. You guys are amazing. We as Europeans (and the British are very much included) have a happy history which includes the mass genocide of the Australian aborigine and the American Indian. But if you dare make a trite comment about the Nazis it is immediately censored. Incredible! I suppose the genocide of the Japanese through fire bombing and nuclear destruction is ok?

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 33.

    I wonder if it will effect economic migrants.
    Maybe British people will start attaching themselves to lorries and search for the better life.
    What goes around.....

  • rate this
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    Comment number 32.

    24. Little_Old_Me
    Get used to it people - this is a globalised world & we are effectively bit part players already.....

    .no Empire lasts forever, every one diminishes sooner or later, whether through collapse or simply by being over taken.

    ..it is an inevitable as morning following night.....history makes the point nicely,
    --
    How will history judge globalisation? Badly i think.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 31.

    China has already eclipsed the West. Look at their influence in Latin America and Africa. Africa literally gives their resources away to China because the Chinese don't "patronise" them with "colonial attitudes". And Latin American has suffered from US interference for over half a century. US corruption & hypocricy regarding promotion of "democracy" has turned that market to looking elsewhere.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 30.

    So it is more crucial than ever for the UK to remain part of Europe isn't it?

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 29.

    I will buy some shares in China then.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 28.

    When the western free market economists designed the global world trade deals they made two huge mistakes of omission. There was nothing to stop government manipulating their exchange rates and nothing to stop governments directing their big industries to win. The result has been a massive transfer of wealth from W to E and with it the money to spend on military power. A massive strategic blunder!

  • rate this
    +8

    Comment number 27.

    "The National Intelligence Council says it does not believe China will become a superpower like the US."
    I hope China never becomes another US. We do not need another imperialistic, war-monghering country.
    I also hope that the US loses it UN veto so the UN function can function as it was meant to function.

  • rate this
    -3

    Comment number 26.

    "Let China sleep, for when she awakens, the world will tremble."

  • rate this
    -4

    Comment number 25.

    The most important point here to achieve this opportunity for both China & India to keep peace in the region, otherwise forget it. I doubt it a little BECAUSE the main problem may cause of religious battles.

  • rate this
    +10

    Comment number 24.

    Get used to it people - this is a globalised world & we are effectively bit part players already.....

    ....no Empire lasts forever, every one diminishes sooner or later, whether through collapse or simply by being over taken....

    ....it is an inevitable as morning following night.....history makes the point nicely, if you can be bothered studying history.....

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 23.

    Fair enough, the West has had its own way for a couple of millennia. Now its their turn.

  • Comment number 22.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this
    +4

    Comment number 21.

    Until and unless the nation can provide a good living standard, peace, security and sense of patriotism to the citizens, it can never never be the superpower.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 20.

    Nothing to worry, the west are already carrying out a counter Plan to reverse this by sponsoring projects to divert the asian children from education to entertainment skills by which in the next 15 years the asians would have most of its youth skilled only in singing and dancing.

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 19.

    I personally am a big fan of Asia. I think the fear of Asia's rise is born from misunderstanding and ignorance about the continent and cultures (as shown by many of the comments here)

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 18.

    Well I would've thought that this is bleedin' obvious. As economic properity increases, so does influence and power. And with so many Asians in the world, inevitably, their combined numbers will "outmuscle" the US and Europe. Duh!

    @1: My understanding is that the Chinese are alert to it, and are seriously considering amending their one-child per family policy so they've got that covered too.

  • rate this
    +13

    Comment number 17.

    The East has learnt a lot from the mistakes of the West. China in particular is super careful with its banking systems, its tightly regulated and not treated like a fruit machine for bankers to gamble on a whim.

    Our banks collapse every 80 years or so. But nothing is done to prevent furthers collapses despite the recurring theme.

    China's not constrained by the elitist class structure we are

  • Comment number 16.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

 

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