Wisconsin recall: US media views

Governor Scott Walker after filling out his ballot in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin 5 June 2012 Governor Scott Walker completes his ballot in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and other state leaders face a recall election on Tuesday.

The election comes more than a year after Wisconsin passed a law limiting workers' collective bargaining rights, drawing large protests to the state capital, Madison.

Polling suggests Mr Walker, a Republican, is narrowly favoured to win against the Democratic candidate, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

Some are predicting that the outcome will affect the outcome of November's presidential election. But how much is that really the case?

In the Washington Post, The Fix the case for whether Wisconsin will be a "swing state" in November. While Republicans have made gains in the state in the past several years, Chris Cilliza argues that a Walker win has a more convincing effect on the national election if the turnout matches the levels in which Mr Obama was elected.

If turnout is low, "any attempt to conflate what happens today in Wisconsin is a fool's errand", he writes, adding: "There will simply be too big a difference between what the electorate looked like on 5 June and what history suggests it will look like on 6 November."

Jay Cost at the right-leaning Weekly Standard looks beyond the November election. If Scott Walker wins, he writes, it would empower conservative leaders across the country to pass similar labour reforms:

"If Republican governor Scott Walker prevails so will conservatives, since his reforms of collective bargaining will survive, and he shall have curbed some of the worst excesses of the American labor movement."

At the liberal magazine Mother Jones, Andy Kroll crunches the numbers, including $63.5m, the amount he says has been spent on advertising before the recall election.

At the New Republic, Alec McGillis breaks with conventional wisdom, suggesting that some of those who back Scott Walker on Tuesday will in fact vote for Barack Obama in November.

"Hard as it may be to believe, there is no question these Walker/Obama voters exist", he says, adding that for non-idelogical voters, better economic conditions would help both Mr Obama and Mr Walker's re-election chances.

Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, Alan Borsuk writes in CNN Opinion, there are some things that will not change in Wisconsin, and by extension, the United States.

"There is little reason to think the intense and adamant approach to politics will abate after Tuesday," Mr Borsuk says. "The pendulum swings in Wisconsin politics, and it seems to being swinging faster and farther in recent years."

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