Six weeks to save the euro

 
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at the IMF meeting in Washington

The British Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne settled on six weeks as the window to save the European single currency.

It is, of course, an artificial deadline. It coincides with the G20 meeting in Cannes. Beyond that, there is not significance to six weeks. What it does do is to concentrate minds. And that was probably its purpose.

However, the past 18 months have been littered with meetings and summits to rescue the euro. Many have come with the billing that they are "crunch" gatherings. Communiques are issued that pacify the markets for days, until the small print is read. And then the realisation dawns that the big question has not been answered.

What happens if a big nation like Italy gets into difficulty? If it is too big to bail out - which currently it is - what impact will that have on Europe's banks? Will the eurozone break up in chaos and imperil what is left of the global recovery? So markets fret. So politicians and officials pledge to use "overwhelming force" to fix the problem.

Emerging from the IMF meeting in Washington is the broad outline of the latest plan. It broadly accepts that Greece will default. What it aims to do is to protect Europe's banks from the fall-out and to build up defences around Italy.

So, in the weeks ahead Europe's banks will be re-capitalised - though we don't know by how much. There will be huge efforts to boost the size of the EFSF - the main bailout fund. The EFSF already has been given extra powers and those are currently being debated by national parliaments. Its fire-power has been raised to 440bn euros (£380bn). The suggestion is that the fund needs to grow to 2 trillion euros.

How this will be done is not clear. But the mood is to pick up on an idea initially floated by the US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner. At a meeting in Wroclaw he called for the existing fund to be leveraged so that it would be four or five times greater. How would this be done? No-one is sure, but the EFSF could act like a bank and draw on funds from the ECB.

So the proposed deal is re-capitalise the banks, expand the EFSF so it could protect even Italy, and prepare for a Greek default.

It is easy to sketch out such a scenario on headed hotel notepaper in Washington - and then there is politics, and reality.

Greece - a country only in name
Greek protesters Greeks may resist austerity if default is on the cards

Firstly, there is Greece. It finds itself pursuing a policy that almost no-one believes in. It is dishing out new austerity plans in the hope it will be given another bailout cheque next month. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos is increasingly seen as whistling on the deck whilst the passengers are making their escape. At the weekend he said "Greece is never going to default because that would be a catastrophe for the eurozone."

But, all around him, plans are being laid. The markets have already factored in a Greek default. Some 60% of the Greek people now expect a default. Built in to the new plan is the expectation that Greek debt will be cut by between 50% and 60%, so as to protect the eurozone.

So why, if default is in the offing, should the Greek people go along with the latest austerity plans? A poll suggests that already 48% of Greeks are unable to meet their extra tax burden. Yes, Greece will get the next tranche of the bailout money - 8bn euros - but that is only to buy time.

Greece remains dangerously unstable. "There is no doubt that we are living in wartime conditions," said Apostolos Tamvakakis, the CEO of the Greek National Bank.

The much repeated statement by Mr Venizelos that "Greece is and will always be a euro area member state" is so often repeated that it sounds desperate. The likelihood is that it will remain in the eurozone because of the difficulties of leaving. But it is increasingly a country only in name; its sovereignty has been traded away and its future will be decided by outsiders.

Dissent in Germany

Secondly, there is Germany. The EFSF bailout fund cannot be expanded without German approval. They are wary of giving the ECB more power. Even the German president has warned that there are risks to democracy in doing that. One of the attractions of the modern German state is its focus on the consequences for democracy.

This Thursday the Bundestag will vote on the extra powers for the EFSF agreed on 21 July. The expanded fund will raise German financial guarantees to 211bn euros.

The legislation will be passed. But that isn't the problem. For Angela Merkel the vote will test her authority. If she has to rely on the opposition for the votes she will be damaged and it could even lead to early elections. She needs 311 votes. Her coalition has 330 but she has rebels and they may still embarrass her.

Eurozone - other recent views

The New York Times' Paul Krugman is "both terrified and bored" by the eurozone crisis - terrified because he remembers the last depression led to World War II.

In an eight-step plan to avoid a depression, professor of economics at New York University Nouriel Roubini, advises in Project Syndicate that Greece and others leave the eurozone.

Former chief economist of the IMF Simon Johnson explains, in the Baseline Scenario blog, that the IMF doesn't have the kind of funds to bail eurozone countries out of the debt crisis.

In the Street Light blog, economist Kash Mansori puts forward an argument for why joining the euro caused the debt crisis of eurozone countries.

If Angela Merkel comes through this test she may find herself having to tell the German people why more German treasure has to be deployed to defend the euro. She has already said that defending the single currency is a German national interest. The problem is the growing divide between the political class - the elite - and the people. The political class remains firmly committed to the European project. The public has become wary. More than 70% of the people are against further bailouts. If this latest plan is to fly, they will have to be won round.

It will be a long and difficult six weeks. The Americans, the British and a whole slew of commentators are using shock and awe to try to force the eurozone essentially to stand behind the debts of all its nations. It is a massive step with huge implications. The public - as so often happens in Europe - are spectators.

 
Gavin Hewitt Article written by Gavin Hewitt Gavin Hewitt Europe editor

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  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 125.

    #124 ptsa

    "the banks will pack up their stuff and move elsewhere. If this is not enforced worldwide, the UK is right, they should not accept it."

    -- you mean that if all banks move to Britain and the USA --those two countries should be responsible for their losses ?

    --- YIPPEE ! --- let them move !

    (but not to Greece )

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 124.

    @122
    Although the UK love talking about countries that do not produce anything, this is exactly what the UK is. Their only main export nowadays is products of the City, if this is taxed (ridiculously low percentage anyway- goes to show how greedy bankers are), the banks will pack up their stuff and move elsewhere. If this is not enforced worldwide, the UK is right, they should not accept it.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 123.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 122.

    FTT has been endorsed by FMs of France & Germany. The smaller economies are likely to back it. Christine Lagarde is outspoken advocate of such a tax. Software billionaire Bill Gates gave the tax his endorsement.
    The "bug" is Britain, home to the highest volume of euro-denominated trading, whose current Conservative-Liberal government is firmly opposed to a transaction tax, as is the US.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 121.

    55-billion euros a year by skimming as little as 0.01% from every financial transaction on EU exchanges. This money could be used to finance the EFSF. But the micro-tax, widely known as a Tobin Tax is just as likely to divide Europe into deeper divisions. Barroso has called for unity around a six-point plan, to be voted on by all the euro zone’s 17 parliaments this week.

 

Comments 5 of 125

 

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