Why President Zardari's visit is a small bonus

 
Asif Ali Zardari Mr Zardari's visit has been welcomed by the Indian media

Hope is not a policy, but neither is despair, as South Asia expert Stephen Cohen says in a recent essay on Pakistan.

So it is with relations between India and Pakistan.

The past few days have shown how fragile the relationship can be - even as India welcomed President Asif Ali Zardari's private trip to India on Sunday - the first by a Pakistani head of state for seven years - and PM Manmohan Singh invited him for lunch, the $10m US bounty for Hafiz Saeed, the founder of Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, provoked the cleric to openly launch a fresh attack against India (and the US).

But people live in hope, so Indian media is gung-ho about Mr Zardari's visit.

They say the Pakistani president must be applauded for trying to end trade discrimination against India, easing petroleum imports from across the border, and moving towards a liberal visa deal.

"Under Mr Zardari's watch, India and Pakistan are considering a sweeping agenda for economic co-operation for the first time in decades. The prime minister has every reason to welcome Mr Zardari warmly and consider the next steps in consolidating the unexpected movement in bilateral relations," the Indian Express wrote.

Analyst C Raja Mohan believes Mr Singh must make an official trip to Pakistan after his meeting with Mr Zardari. "For his part," he wrote, "Mr Singh should convey to Mr Zardari his readiness to move as fast and as far as the Pakistan president is willing to go." Others like Jyoti Malhotra actually find Mr Zardari's visit to the shrine of a famous Sufi Muslim saint in Rajasthan loaded with symbolism in these troubled times. "Clearly, Mr Zardari has stolen an imaginative moment from the bitter-sullen history of India-Pakistan, by asking to come to pay his respects to a cherished and much-beloved saint across the Indian subcontinent," she wrote.

The relations between two neighbours remain complex. A 2010 Pew survey found 53% of the respondents in Pakistan chose India as the greater threat to their country, and only 26% chose the Taliban and al-Qaeda. At the same time 72% said it was important to improve relations with India, and about 75% wanted more trade relations and talks with India.

Pundits like Mr Cohen believe that it will "take the [Pakistan] army's compliance, strong political leadership, and resolutely independent-minded foreign ministers to secure any significant shift of approach towards India".

None of this appears to be in much evidence at the moment.

Both countries have seriously weakened governments that makes them unable to move towards any radical confidence building measures. In the current circumstances, President Zardari's visit can only be a small bonus. And as scholars like Kanti Bajpai suggest, India must remain patient (even if faced with another Mumbai-style attack), continue to engage with Islamabad, help the civilian government in Pakistan politically, try to resolve a few outstanding disputes like Siachen and Sir Creek, build a relationship with the army and explore the possibility of cooperating with Islamabad on the future of Afghanistan. Despair does not help mend a stormy relationship.

 
Soutik Biswas, Delhi correspondent Article written by Soutik Biswas Soutik Biswas Delhi correspondent

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    kashmir, anyone?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    Why now?
    Pakistan is rejecting US demand for arrest of Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) & Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, taking strong exception to announcement of $10M bounty. Pakistan has asked US to respect Pakistan's territorial sovereignty.
    Why did US offer such a bounty, create such publicity just when India & Pakistan are set to meet?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    Pakistan has a tougher job to accomplish. It has a more feudal & hierarchical, more conservative society than India.The PEW Survey also indicate that Govt sponsored propaganda has distorted public opinion & misled identifing "real threat the country is facing". 1 can learn abt Pakistan & its politics from Pakistanis like Mohammed Hanif (Head of BBC Urdu & author of "A Case of Exploding Mangoes").

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    Peace process began in 2004, derailed in 2008 when militants attacked Mumbai. India blamed Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. While political reconciliation efforts have stalled, Pakistan & India have been improving economic ties. In November, Pakistan's Cabinet approved India's “Most Favored Nation” status = removes tariffs allows countries to trade on equal terms.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    Pakistani leadership need to understand that using Islamic extremism as part of national foreign policy was and still is a huge mistake. In practical terms, Pakistan desperately needs new political direction & true leadership to shape its future. Foreign trained (not educated) children from the families of feudal lords & political dynasties can not lead Pakistan towards prosperity & development.

 

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