Will Bosco Ntaganda's surrender bring peace to DR Congo?
On the retreat in the battlefield, wanted war crimes suspect and Congolese rebel leader Bosco Ntaganda has raised the white flag, fleeing to Rwanda and handing himself into the US embassy in Kigali.
Known as "the Terminator", over the last two decades Gen Ntaganda has fought for several rebel groups in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo as well as serving as a general in the Congolese army - and is wanted by the International Criminal Court on allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
It is unclear why he has chosen to surrender to the ICC - or why he chose Washington's embassy in Rwanda - neither the US nor Rwanda recognise the tribunal, unlike many other states in Africa and Europe.
End Quote Jason Stearns DR Congo analyst
Apparently, he thought an almost sure prison sentence was better than his other options”
But they will now have to co-operate with the ICC so that he can be transferred to The Hague to stand trial - or risk a diplomatic outcry at a time when the United Nations is spearheading new efforts to end the conflict in a country two-thirds the size of western Europe.
Despite denials by Rwanda's government, DR Congo has repeatedly accused it of backing Gen Ntaganda.
"The fact that he showed up in Kigali raises a lot of questions. He could have also showed up in Uganda [another neighbour of DR Congo], but he decided to do that in Kigali," Thierry Vircoulon, of the think-tank International Crisis Group, told the BBC.
"Was it because it was the only way out or because he also wanted to embarrass his former sponsor?"'Shot at'
Born in Rwanda and raised in DR Congo, Gen Ntaganda and President Paul Kagame's government in Kigali were once staunch allies, bound together by ethnic ties - both come from the minority Tutsi ethnic group which feels threatened since the genocide that saw hard-line Hutu militias kill some 800,000 people in Rwanda in 1994.
Gen Ntaganda fought for Mr Kagame against Rwanda's Hutu-led government in the early 1990s.
After Mr Kagame took power in 1994, Bosco Ntaganda served as a bulwark in eastern DR Congo against the Hutu militias that took refuge there after being driven out of Rwanda at the end of the genocide.
Gen Ntaganda also fought the Congolese government, accusing it of oppressing DR Congo's own Tutsi population living in the east, near the border with Rwanda.
He fled to the US embassy after his M23 rebel movement, which was formed last year after an army mutiny, split last month.
There was heavy fighting between rival factions in eastern DR Congo, which reportedly left Gen Ntaganda on the back foot.
It is not clear what caused the split, but forces loyal to Gen Ntaganda and ousted M23 political head Jean-Marie Runiga appeared to lose ground to troops allied with the movement's military chief Sultani Makenga.
An ally of Col Makenga, Col Innocent "India Queen'' Kahina, told Associated Press news agency that he saw Gen Ntaganda in the battlefield last week.
"We shot at him, but he got away,'' Col Kahina is quoted as saying.
End Quote Ida Sawyer HRW researcher
Ntaganda's appearance in the dock at a fair and credible trial of the ICC would send a strong message to other abusers that they too may face justice one day”
"Apparently, he thought an almost sure prison sentence was better than his other options," DR Congo analyst Jason Stearns writes on his blog.
Mr Vircoulon says Rwanda will be worried about Gen Ntaganda appearing in the dock at The Hague.
"He will have a lot of things to say at the ICC and his testimony may potentially be very damaging and could have huge consequences for Kigali."
For New York-based pressure group Human Rights Watch (HRW), should Gen Ntaganda stand trial, it would help end the culture of impunity in DR Congo.
"Ntaganda's appearance in the dock at a fair and credible trial of the ICC would send a strong message to other abusers that they too may face justice one day," HRW Africa researcher Ida Sawyer said.
The DR Congo conflict has been a major focus of the ICC since its formation more than a decade ago, with two cases finalised so far - the acquittal of militia leader Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui in December 2012 and the sentencing some six months earlier of his rival, Thomas Lubanga, to 14 years in jail for recruiting children into his rebel army in 2002 and 2003.
Gen Ntaganda was once allied with Lubanga, serving as his chief of staff in the Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC) rebel group.
The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Gen Ntaganda in 2006, accusing him of committing atrocities, along with Lubanga, in 2002 and 2003 - charges that are unrelated to the latest conflict involving the M23.
With more charges added against Gen Ntaganda in 2012, he now faces 10 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
'The Terminator' at a glance
- Born in 1973, grew up in Rwanda
- Fled to DR Congo as a teenager after attacks on fellow ethnic Tutsis
- At 17, he begins his fighting days - alternating between being a rebel and a soldier, in both Rwanda and DR Congo
- In 2006, indicted by the ICC for allegedly recruiting child soldiers
- He is in charge of troops that carry out the 2008 Kiwanji massacre
- In 2009, he is integrated into the Congolese national army and made a general
- In 2012, he defects from the army, sparking a new rebellion which forces 800,000 from their homes
- In March 2013, hands himself in to US embassy in Kigali
While Lubanga was captured by the DR Congo government in 2006 and put on trial, Gen Ntaganda evaded arrest and was integrated into the Congolese army.
But fighters loyal to him defected from the army last year after DR Congo's President Joseph Kabila hinted that the Congolese authorities would put the general on trial.
His appearance at the US embassy suggests the Rwandan government forced him to hand himself in, says Mr Stearns.
"Or he was so afraid of what would happen if they arrested him (or Makenga got a hold of him) that he made a run for the embassy?" he asks.
Despite the ICC's efforts to punish rebel leaders and various peace initiatives spearheaded by foreign governments - and 19,000 UN troops on the ground, violence has continued in eastern DR Congo - a largely lawless area hit by ethnic conflict and a battle over its mineral resources.
Currently, Uganda is mediating between the government and the M23 to end the conflict that has left hundreds of thousands homeless since last year, while UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has appointed former Irish president Mary Robinson as his special envoy to the region.
Her appointment on Monday followed the signing of an agreement last month by 11 African leaders - including Mr Kagame, Mr Kabila and Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni - to help end the conflict in eastern DR Congo and possibly set up a special African Union intervention brigade.
"I plan to work closely with the leaders of the region to ensure that the presence of combatants in their territories is addressed by their respective governments, in the context of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework [signed by the leaders]," Ms Robinson said.
"In this respect, I call on states of the region to work with the International Criminal Court," she added.
Some analysts believe that with diplomatic pressure on Rwanda growing, it could not give refuge to Gen Ntaganda, leaving him with no option but to surrender in the face of the setbacks his forces suffered in the latest fighting.
Mr Stearns doubts that the conflict will end anytime soon, saying the agreement, which calls for the Congolese state to be reformed and for neighbouring countries to stop meddling in its affairs, was "very vague".
"Robinson will have to put meat on its bones. However, if Kabila manages to strike a deal with Makenga's M23, then logic of the framework [agreement] could easily fray," he writes.
"Kabila thought it was necessary to sign up to a relatively intrusive deal in order to bring an end to the M23 threat."
With the M23 splitting and Gen Ntaganda surrendering, DR Congo's government may be feeling more buoyant, but there is no room for complacency in international efforts to achieve peace - there are enough battle-hardened men in the region to fill the vacuum left by Gen Ntaganda.