Clouds gather over bellwether Tunisia

Ennahda party supporters in Tunis, 9 February Ennahda supporters come out to rally behind their party in Tunis

"Are you aware of how much pressure there is on you to succeed?" I asked Tunisia's beleaguered Islamist leader, Rachid Ghannouchi, during an interview in Tunis in December.

"Yes," he replied emphatically, with a visible sigh.

He knows all too well the importance of Tunisia succeeding - for Tunisia most of all, but also for a region struggling to forge new relationships between Islamists and more liberal secular forces during a troubled transition from authoritarian rule to democracy.

"A revolution is like an earthquake," explained the soft-spoken head of the Ennahda (Renaissance) Party, who is arguably the most powerful figure in Tunisia's increasingly fractious politics.

"It takes time to form a new landscape."

'Very afraid'

Now Tunisia has been jolted by another powerful political earthquake. The brazen murder last Wednesday of outspoken liberal politician Chokri Belaid, the first political assassination since Tunisia's independence from France in 1965, sent shock waves across Tunisia, and beyond its borders.

"We are very shocked and very afraid," his friend and colleague, Faycal Zemni, of the Modern Left Party told the BBC shortly after his death.

"If Tunisia cannot succeed, who can?" has been the refrain across the region about the small, relatively homogenous North African country.

Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Dec 2010 Tunisia was the first in the region to peacefully oust its president

Its comparatively high levels of education, relatively advanced social conditions, including the status of women, and a small, apolitical army, seemed to augur well for Tunisia's historic path.

Tunisia was the first in the region to peacefully oust its president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the first to hold peaceful elections, the first to assemble a ruling troika among Islamists and secular leaders.

Now Tunisia is engulfed by its most impassioned street protests since the heady days of January 2011. And there is a deepening crisis within the ruling coalition over how to respond to this brutal turn of events.

Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali's call for a new government of technocrats has already been rejected by his own Ennahda party, which insists on a political government until new elections.

Ennahda, which had been widely seen as moderate and pragmatic, is now under unprecedented pressure.

Outspoken opposition leaders, including Chokri Belaid, had been accusing the party of giving a "green light" to political assassinations. In what turned into a prophetic news conference the day before his murder, he warned of political violence.

Ennahda officials have reacted angrily to accusations blaming the party for his murder.

In a statement released on Saturday, they said "some rushed to accuse Ennahda Party and its leader Rachid Ghannouchi without any evidence, driven by blind hatred and the avoidance of revealing the real perpetrators".

In recent months, Tunisia's growing political crisis was increasingly visible and, at moments, violent.

On a trip to Tunisia in December, we heard frequent condemnation of the growing role of shadowy "militias". And there were accusations from more secular-minded Tunisians that Ennahda party and the more hardline Salafists were one and the same.

Militias refer to the Leagues for the Protection of the Revolution, neighbourhood watch groups that claim to be rooting out remnants of the old regime. They are accused of thuggery at opposition rallies and trade union marches.

Ennahda officials insist the militias are not their creation, and condemn any violence.

They also insist they have taken action against attacks by Salafists, everywhere from the American embassy to sacred Sufi shrines and art exhibitions deemed to be profane.


In December, Mr Ghannouchi defended his approach, which involved punishing acts of violence that break the law, and reaching out to moderate elements in all political groups.

"Salafists are not one group," he insisted in our interview. "There are those who promote violence and those who denounce it and there are those with whom the government of Ennahda has had confrontations."

He explained how Tunisia's government was the result of "moderate Islamists and moderate secularists" coming together.

But now it's unravelling.

In December, when the Egyptian capital Cairo was engulfed by violent tensions between Islamists and secular forces, many Tunisians we spoke to bristled at suggestions that the crisis in Tunisia was of similar proportions.

"The revolution is not in danger," insisted Mr Ghannouchi then. But he admitted there "was a battle about the new post revolutionary model".

When Faycal Zemni was asked whether he feared more political violence, he seemed to speak for many Tunisians. "When we look at the situation objectively, we risk saying yes, but I prefer to say, 'I hope not.'"

Many will continue to say "watch Tunisia", as a bellwether for the region. But they're watching more nervously now.

Lyse Doucet Article written by Lyse Doucet Lyse Doucet Chief international correspondent

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  • rate this

    Comment number 36.

    I can believe with all that #5 Muktar says. Visiting as a ´tourist´ (ca. 7 years ago) --the society appeared to be a ´free for all´. With rampant petty crime --pickpocketing, bag slashing and an indifferent police at local level.

    -- all indications of even worse at higher levels --and that being nothing new for Tunisian citizens -- whether well educated or not.

  • rate this

    Comment number 35.

    Nkrumah's book: “Africa Must Unite” - “Union would make a greater contribution towards peace & progress of humanity. For one thing, it would resolve problems of arbitrary frontiers erected by colonial powers, & eliminate irredentist dissensions.” Book goes on - under a united ANTI-IMPERIALIST continent, there would be no foreign military bases on African soil. There woud be no need."

  • rate this

    Comment number 34.

    Genuine revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia & other African State or Middle Eastern State require the throwing off the western, suffocating mantle = WB/IMF. These individual states are largely creation of EU colonialism & modern day neo-colonialism = western imperialism.
    There was no Arab Spring - just Arab States being fooled.

  • rate this

    Comment number 33.

    Islamist Regime in Tunisia, like Muslim Brotherhood Mursi Regime in Egypt, is a bourgeois-type of regime supported by west. Ennahda Govt backed US-NATO war against Libya. It is negotiating terms of loan with IMF = austerity measures directed against Tunisian workers. PM Hamadi Jebali, announced govt dissolution, replace with UNELECTED govt of technocrats.
    What is happening to Arab spring?

  • rate this

    Comment number 32.

    Ms. Doucet

    --I hope this BBC blog becomes a ´fixture´?

    Twitter is nothing for the ´geriatric´ contributors --your experience deserves much more.

  • rate this

    Comment number 31.

    So much for the Arab uprising!
    What's happening in Tunisia is global process which destroys people’s lives through deliberate manipulation of markets. Where there is IMF intervention, it imposes soaring food prices, massive lay-offs of workers & civil servants & destruction of social programs.
    Arab spring was just a dirty trick by WB & IMF.
    Arab countries seldom want western-style govts.

  • rate this

    Comment number 30.

    #25 Stillbuzzin

    "Submission to the will of Allah and democracy are mutual exclusives, not just in fact, but by definition."

    --and also by definition--

    ´Give to God that which is God´s --and to Caesar that which is Caesar´s´ ?

    --also has not helped much.

  • rate this

    Comment number 29.

    It takes more than a revolution to change the Mores of countries and that which is accepted.

    Visiting Bourguiba´s (and family) luxurious marble mausoleum --the cermonial guards had their primitive ´off time´ small room at the back of the building -- flimsy and plastic table, chairs and washing facilities.

    -- So is / was the Tunisian and many other societies --difficult to change.

  • rate this

    Comment number 28.

    Changing the rules in the way institutions work is ongoing everywhere, the elites occupying justice, education, religious and security institutions feel the need to take over 'revolutions' that threaten their grip.

  • rate this

    Comment number 27.

    Militant fundamentalists must love this environment; they do not recognise the state only their perverted version of a religion. Trying to deal with this problem piecemeal state by state is not the solution.

  • rate this

    Comment number 26.

    18.DSA - "Religion has fueled wars and unrest for thousands of years...."

    Utter rot - & I say this as as staunch an atheist as you can get.

    Religion does not cause wars, men with ego issues do.

    Sometimes they rally a crowd to the side using Nationalist rhetoric, someimes religious rhetoric, sometimes the cult leader rhetoric.....

  • rate this

    Comment number 25.

    Submission to the will of Allah and democracy are mutual exclusives, not just in fact, but by definition.

  • Comment number 24.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this

    Comment number 23.


  • Comment number 22.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this

    Comment number 21.

    Well its perfectly simple really. Tunisia's current government has failed in its promises, and the people demand one which will not fail.

    Incidentally, many of the other 'Arab spring' countries are also having second rebellion symptoms, whose governments are enforcing creeping dictatorship style policies (Egypt, Libya) Though BBC news seems to have lost interest in these countries now...

  • rate this

    Comment number 20.


    6. chiptheduck
    "I visited Tunisia once with three other blokes in our 40s."

    When? In 2011-2012 or earlier?

    Sorry - error in previous post.


  • rate this

    Comment number 19.

    2 Hours ago
    6. chiptheduck
    "I visited Tunisia once with three other blokes in our 40s."



    When? In 2011-2012 or earlier?

  • rate this

    Comment number 18.

    Religion has fueled wars and unrest for thousands of years.
    The sooner the present crop of religions go the same way a Greek, Roman mythology the better.

  • rate this

    Comment number 17.

    6. chiptheduck
    "I visited Tunisia once with three other blokes in our 40s."

    When? In 2011-2012 or earlier?


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