Nigeria attacks: What Boko Haram assault means

A man inspects the burnt-out wreckage of motorcycles destroyed by multiple explosions and armed assailants in the Marhaba area of the northern Nigerian city of Kano, on January 21, 2012

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Some thoughts on the implications of the devastating Kano bombings:

- Boko Haram has shown, once again, that it keeps its promises. It warned several months ago that it would react violently if its jailed members were not released. "These are people who live up to their word," Nigerian human rights activist Shehu Sani told me.

- The scale and coordination of the attacks reveal an organisation growing in confidence and ambition, and seemingly committed to a long-term insurgency.

- The Nigerian authorities - routinely accused of mishandling and fuelling the insurgency through the heavy-handed actions of security forces - have reportedly allocated 25% of this year's national budget to defence. Many here fear that a strategy of confrontation, rather than dialogue, will condemn the region to long-term instability.

- Claims that Boko Haram have received training from Somalia's Al Shabaab have been given added strength by the sophisticated nature of the operation.

- Boko Haram may be a murky organisation with a range of targets and agendas - it has attacked Christians and the United Nations in recent months - but its main focus remains "the establishment" and the police in particular, which it blames for the 2009 killing, while in custody, of its former leader.

- There is a widespread belief that sympathetic elements in the security forces are, at the very least, cooperating with Boko Haram. It remains difficult to know how true that is, and how much is paranoia/propaganda.

- It's hard to gauge the level of public support the group enjoys. Millions in the north may share its goal of an Islamic state, but precious few have endorsed its violent tactics and many moderate Muslims have been targeted by it.

- Prominent Muslim groups and local politicians have publicly condemned the attacks. However, many commentators believe those same people are content to sit on the side-lines, knowing that the violence puts extra pressure on a central government widely accused of favouring the south of the country over the predominantly Muslim north.

- Nigeria seems unlikely to become an Islamic state. Warnings of disintegration also seem exaggerated. But Boko Haram has evolved into a serious security threat far more quickly than many had anticipated. Still, some analysts still feel President Jonathan may be misreading or exaggerating the group's strength for his own political/tribal purposes.

- All this has badly shaken Nigeria. But this is still a dynamic, developing democracy with a booming economy and plenty of reasons for optimism

Andrew Harding Article written by Andrew Harding Andrew Harding Africa correspondent

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  • rate this

    Comment number 13.

    Andrew Harding, Nigeria seems unlikely to become an Islamic state. Warnings of disintegration also seem exaggerated. You must be a member of bokoharam. how I wish your brothers, sisters, uncles,ants, friends & companions were all living in borno state. How I wish shell,BP and all british companies where located in the north. then your article could have been more convincing.

  • rate this

    Comment number 12.

    As Boko Haram is demanding the imposition of Sharia Law for Nigeria, maybe when they catch the perpetrators of this latest terrorist outrage they can all be publicly beheaded.
    That should keep them happy!

  • rate this

    Comment number 11.

    1.The carrot would be to buy off the "Moderate Islamists" to turn on the Boko Harum.
    2.The stick would be to hang ALL the Boko Harum and slaughter any village that does not turn over B.H. sympathizers.
    3.Separation of the North and South .
    4.. Socialist Revolution
    The above are #1 most likely and #4 least likely. The best solution is listed in REVERSE. order Goodluck Mr. Goodluck!

  • rate this

    Comment number 10.

    If Ethan Farber angered statement about Nigeria is to be taken as a fair analysis of the country, then India would not be classified as a democratic or developing country. The same referred western corps feeds the corruption in India to profit. Does that make India a non-developing or democratic country? Corruption, infrastructure and other challenges can only be fought through democratic means.

  • rate this

    Comment number 9.

    What a mess a history of colonial capitalism has made of Nigeria. Aren't the British capitalist class glad they are gone now! Now they can buy their oil without the overhead of running a country.
    The Bature (above) may very well be right that this is just some sick inter ruling class proxy struggle but I suspect the problem is much deeper.
    SOLUTIONS: 1.The carrot or the stick or separation

  • rate this

    Comment number 8.

    Points: 1. President Jonathan does not have control over Nigeria's security forces. 2. Northern elite, former NSA Gusau, maintain control and influence among security services and are willing to provide cover for groups like Boko Haram to distablize Jonathan. 3. NSA Azazi and Bayelsa State groups are set to profit from the billions of naira allocated to fight Boko Haram; so the violence continues.

  • rate this

    Comment number 7.

    What is happening is nothing but the legacy of Britain in the post -colonial Nigeria. Britain saw this coming but refused to heed the warning. The first massacre of the Southerners of Nigeria - specifically the Ibos of Nigeria, occurred in 1953 before the eyes of the British Colonial Masters. This was a warning to Britain that Nigeria should have been divided into its component ethnic nations.

  • rate this

    Comment number 6.

    How did Boko Haram get this strong. This is a problem the Nigerian central govt. can't do anything about

  • rate this

    Comment number 5.

    To me its a good reason for the South to now start advocating earnestly for seccsion from the Muslim North. The concept of Biafra remains on the agenda. The truth be told - its impossible to live with Muslims when they form a majority.Let the North separate, so they can practice thier sharia - cutting off peoples limps and other macabre practices - without hindrance.

  • rate this

    Comment number 4.

    Powerful Western oil firms are quite happy with the situation in Nigeria - they take advantage of the corruption and chaos to loot and pollute the country, seizing their oil with bribery to key officials and subverting real democracy whenever possible.

    Which leaves us here. Terrorists trying to undermine the status quo, and oil businesses using propaganda (like this article) to maintain it.

  • rate this

    Comment number 3.

    I was encouraged when Christians formed human-shield to protect Muslims praying a coupe of weeks ago.Sadly, every time I read report of another explosion and killing of innocent Nigerians by the terrorist group - Boko Haram,I ponder the country will be better off,if it split into two countries - North and South. The North may not want to split, since it has no resources to be a viable country.

  • rate this

    Comment number 2.

    "this is still a dynamic, developing democracy with a booming economy"

    Pure nonsense aimed at silencing serious debate about the role of the West in Nigeria's troubles.

    Nigeria is not developing; basic infrastructure is crumbling. Not dynamic - cannot meet its challenges. And so corrupt it cannot qualify as democratic.

    All this is due to the Western corps that feed the corruption to profit.

  • rate this

    Comment number 1.

    The legacy of colonial rule has left many artificial states that would be better off being split up on ethnic lines; Sudan is probably the best example of this.


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