Syrian opposition's failing military tactics

 
Free Syrian Army fighters are seen amid smoke during a day of fierce fighting with government forces in Idlib, March 10 2012

Reports suggest that opposition fighters have been forced out of the city of Idlib, close to the Turkish border in northern Syria.

Following on from their abandonment of the Baba Amer district in Homs, it has prompted resignations in the rebel leadership as well as questions over their poor judgement in trying to hold ground, inviting large scale government military operations in response.

The question of when it is right to establish liberated zones or when it is better to melt away, avoiding a stand up fight with all the suffering that this would cause the civilian population, has preoccupied revolutionaries for decades. The advantages, in terms of setting up an alternative to a hostile government are evident - but so are the dangers in allowing the enemy to hammer a static guerrilla force or devastate areas that support the rebellion.

When Mao led his communist army on its "Long March" in China in 1934, it was a struggle for survival prompted by the encirclement of a "liberated area" that his critics said he had declared prematurely.

Che Guevara debated the Liberated Zone concept with Fidel Castro, and in their war against the Soviet army, the mujahideen at times proclaimed parts of Afghanistan, such as the Panjsher Valley to be free too.

'Chaos'

In the case of Syria, the loose coalition of armed groups that has challenged the Assad government lacks the tight organisation of some of those earlier movements, so the decision to hold certain areas was often an impromptu one by people on the ground.

Resigning from the Syrian National Council, the umbrella body for the anti-government movement, as a result of these recent setbacks, Haitham al Maleh said today, "there is a lot of chaos in the group and not a lot of clarity over what they can accomplish right now".

Anti-government protests in Idlib - February 2012 Anti-government protests had taken place in the north-western city of Idlib

There are recriminations aplenty in Turkey where the Council and the Liberation Army are based, with further resignations expected. Many of those connected with the movement have blamed recent failures on a lack of weaponry, but the more salient deficit is in organisation and leadership.

It was precisely in those areas that Britain extended aid to the Libyan revolutionaries, and where experts in Whitehall now assess the Syrians' need to be greatest.

The SLA has tens of thousands of members - perhaps as many as 50,000. They are armed for the most part with small arms (ie assault rifles, light machine guns and rocket propelled grenades) though in places they have deployed mortars, captured anti-tank missiles and even tanks brought over by defectors.

They have succeeded in knocking out many government armoured vehicles, and encouraging the defection of thousands of government soldiers - indeed it was as a haven for such men that the opposition last year declared the area between the Turkish border and Idlib to be liberated.

'Shaky morale'

Much of the anger directed against the Syrian National Council (SNC) has centered on the issue of weapons supplies, or the lack of them.

Start Quote

The perception of a poorly organised resistance has played into the deliberations of Western governments”

End Quote

George Sabra, the SNC spokesman claimed earlier this week that a bureau had been set up to channel weapons to fighters inside Syria. However no real evidence has yet emerged of fighters obtaining heavier or more sophisticated arms than those already available.

Furthermore, the arrival of a few dozen satellite phones or secure short wave radios might have a greater effect on the SLA's capabilities than any number of kalashnikovs.

While the SLA claims to have a command structure that might make use of such communications means - for example to coordinate attacks in certain areas in order to draw government forces away from somewhere like Homs or Idlib - there is little sign that it actually functions.

There are many factors that ought to play into the hands of the opposition - from widespread popular support to large numbers of armed volunteers and the shaky morale of state forces.

Yet during the past few weeks the government has exploited its advantages of organisation and heavy weaponry to inflict some sharp reverses on opposition groups despite the fact that they can only rely on a small number of loyal military units.

The perception of a poorly organised resistance has played into the deliberations of Western governments debating whether or not to intervene more actively in Syria.

Increasingly these failings appear to be exacerbating tensions within the opposition leadership itself.

 
Mark Urban, Diplomatic and defence editor, Newsnight Article written by Mark Urban Mark Urban Diplomatic and defence editor, BBC Newsnight

What else happened in Middle East as Gaza burned?

The Middle East is going through such turmoil that much has been happened during the month that Gaza has dominated the headlines. Here are five of the key events.

Read full article

Comments

Jump to comments pagination
 
  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 1.

    After a day, just one so far? Wow.

    Maybe any professional insights in response to 'The question of when it is right..' on a simply strategic basis have been driven away by the plethora of media-led opinion on 'what is right' at much grander, if still poorly defined levels, objectively?

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 2.

    I don't think thousands of soldiers have defected, very little the opposition groups have claimed which is strategic, or important has turned out to be true. The regime's military is driven by the fate of hundreds of their colleagues captured by opposition forces. Soldiers loyal to the regime, captured by the opposition groups, do not survive, the experience and that inspires loyalty and revenge.

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 3.

    The wahabised Sunni rebels in Homs walked into a trap laid by Russia by blocking the UNSC resolution.To capture Western sympathy the rebels have indulged in exaggerated and bloated propaganda about the alleged atrocities of the Assad regime.This has undercut the rebels' cause and left them high and dry.

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 4.

    It is sickening that the world stands idly by while the Syrians desiring democracy stand up to this tyrant and his henchmen. This reminds me of the other genocides of the twentieth century. SAVE THEM, ARM THEM, DEFEND THEM NOW!!!!!

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 5.

    I wish the Israelis would get over their fear of Islam and come to the aid of the freedom loving Syrian People. The Syrians are our brothers and sisters, just look at them, they is us!

 

Comments 5 of 17

 

This entry is now closed for comments

Features

  • Cesc FabregasFair price?

    Have some football clubs overpaid for their new players?


  • Woman and hairdryerBlow back

    Would banning high-power appliances actually save energy?


  • Members of staff at James Stevenson Flags hold a Union Jack and Saltire flag UK minus Scotland

    Does the rest of the UK care if the Scots become independent?


  • Women doing ice bucket challengeChill factor

    How much has the Ice Bucket Challenge achieved?


  • Women in front of Windows XP posterUpgrade angst

    Readers share their experiences of replacing their operating system


BBC © 2014 The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.