Egypt's Islamists mobilising mass support

 

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So the long promised trial of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is now underway.

Back in January during the revolution, Egypt's disparate political forces united to demand that he step down. During the months that followed his ouster, the insistence that he face a court was one of the few things these groups could still agree about.

As the judicial process moves ahead, and the past fades in importance, these parties are increasingly at loggerheads fighting to define the future of the country.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, or SCAF, is still a little hazy about the dates of elections but it seems that those or the country's parliament will happen in late November.

It is already clear that the liberal-minded parties that have been the focus of much Western media attention are not doing well as the competition hots up.

The coalition of human rights and other groups that re-occupied Tahrir Square early in July (and whose encampment was described in my last blog entry) was cleared out by soldiers with armoured vehicles on Monday, with many onlookers apparently cheering the troops.

We had spoken to many Egyptians who resented the re-occupation of the square and the march on SCAF headquarters that produced street clashes 10 days ago.

The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's best organised opposition group, had already pulled out of the protest camp and denounced the march on the military HQ for, "causing chaos".

Everybody understands that the Brotherhood, with its 60-year history of social activism in the country's poorer districts, is well placed to contest elections.

Indeed it is the coincidence of interest between that party and the army - with its desire to hand off to civilian leaders as soon as possible - that leads to all manner of theories about an alliance between these two forces. The Brotherhood denies that there is any pact with the generals, just a shared commitment to early elections.

Talking to Amr Adel Sabry, editor of a liberal online newspaper, he argues that the lack of preparedness of some of the more secular Western-style parties is one of the few issues that might still knock the planned elections off course.

Members of those groups meanwhile argue about possible electoral pacts, the constitution, and the role of the army.

As things stand, the SCAF will press on with planned elections - whether or not the new parties are ready - and the Brotherhood will carry on consolidating its organisation.

Since Friday a new factor has also entered people's calculations.

When a protest was called in Tahrir Square late last week, it was known the Islamists would dominate it. But the numbers brought in by the Salafists far exceeded even those the Muslim Brotherhood could muster.

The Salafists favour an Islamic state, with Sharia law, as soon as possible, whereas the Brotherhood has emphasised the separation of state and religion - at least for the time being.

Hundreds of thousands of Salafists came to the square - many waving the flag of Al Nour or "The Light", the party they have established to contest the elections.

One Westernised Cairo woman who was shocked by this show of strength said to me "I think I will have to leave Egypt".

Having been in the square during the demonstration, I would say that the striking thing, apart from the numbers of bearded Salafists, was their discipline and the friendly reception they gave us. This seemed to project a confidence about the future.

Whatever the real support for these strict Islamists across the country - and I have seen estimates ranging from 10%-20% - it seems clear that if they combine with the Brotherhood they might easily command majority support.

It is too early of course to predict the result of elections planned for November. But recent events suggest the Islamists are far better organised, and more able to mobilise mass support, than parties with a more Western agenda.

The rise of the Salafists could also allow the Muslim Brotherhood to position themselves as centrists and king-makers rather than the extremists that Egypt's military rulers portrayed them as for so long.

 
Mark Urban Article written by Mark Urban Mark Urban Diplomatic and defence editor, BBC Newsnight

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  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 29.

    specially with sieged economy that is hostile to outside intervention.

    As the new act of the political drama unfolds: "If" the oppression goes too far, the poor suffer too much and the amount of blood shed in internal conflicts gets matched only by boundless arrogance, perhaps then it would be time for the great lesson of 'humility' that humans keep forgetting to befall?
    (or maybe I'm wrong)

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 28.

    #27.BluesBerry
    Yes, votes will reveal the inevitable outcome. (next month?!)
    However, it will never be settled by votes, not anymore. Salafists and the Brotherhood keep introducing themselves as the righteous mainstream of Muslims. They have already monopolized the underground economy that no other political party will manage to deal with the deficit and offer jobs

  • rate this
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    Comment number 27.

    Egyptians from across the political spectrum have been denied the right to express themselves & exchange ideas. Today there is a chaotic scene in Egypt, particularly with regards to the different ideologies, political beliefs, & even the media. Egyptians are seeing a new light, but where it leads them must be, MUST BE, up to the voters.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 26.

    Influence of Islamists predates revolution. Their popularity developed under severe suppression & corruption that intensified during decades of despotic rule. Political & media openness post 25 January allowed these Islamists to work more openly. More importantly, this trend has benefited from the strong relationship forged between Muslim Brotherhood & other Islamists & Egyptian military.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 25.

    Dominance Islamist trend in last Friday’s million-man march at Tahrir Square apparent - huge number of bearded youth, raising black banners, chanting zealous slogans calling for the implementation of Islamic Sharia law & establishment of an Islamic state. Official said “dregs” had withdrawn from the street. Dregs = liberal/secular protesters.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 24.

    Much work must have been put in the video. It clearly shows the gap between the activists and the 'community'.

    #5.Dave Wigs
    Though I'm not the one expected to answer, I wanted to say problems regarding Coptics are infrequent. As for anti-western sentiment: there shouldn't be such thing. Well, it's much calmer in Alexandria.
    I'd like to know if there were any evidence of such issues too.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 23.

    #21.Pete
    Yes, peace won't come easily. It has a lot of requirements. The good news is that they are not impossible to achieve, but the problem is that we always think there are 'more better options'.
    ###
    I should mention the article was accurate and it tackled the issue boldly. When I mentioend 'simple' earlier, i was regarding structure, not the facts, my apologies

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 22.

    #21.Pete
    Sadly, the Muslim world's image nowadays is defiled mainly by many Muslims' misdeeds. I may claim I prefer peace, but I have to admit that even if justice, equality and peace were attained, many would still prefer war and violence, even without a reason. (and they always find some kind of logic that makes it sound reasonable and necessary)
    But, it's not just Muslims, come on!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 21.

    #19. Amr.
    "Peace won't come without real equality and real justice."

    That sounds nice. But I don't see the Muslim world itself has any lessons to teach, or sets a good example, against discrimination. Quite the opposite.

    Yes, I hope for peace, but I don't expect it.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 20.

    It's futile to dictate nature and fate. All the technologies and the toys (so-called weapons) in the world won't make anyone live one second longer than he's supposed to. So, at least one should try his best perceiving and grasping the truth before time runs out. (average 70 years)
    Whenever and wherever we go after, we won't be taking 'money' or 'resources' there

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 19.

    #17.Pete
    "Anyone who thinks this will bring a peaceful world is naive in the extreme."
    Peace won't come without real equality and real justice. It won't come within a world domination, a world that discriminates Muslims.
    Do you think the conflict in the middle east was a matter of chance?
    Peace won't be built on lies and discrimination, that's if peace is what's trully sought.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 18.

    I was watching 'The Far Pavilions' and when Ash said that try thinking how an Indian feels by imagining if an Indian was ruling and subjugating a Britisher... and there was silence.

    I don't see any good that has come of Western democracies or their Secularism in context of war when it comes to Muslim countries. So, tell me why would they want to pursue which has already caused endless bloodshed?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 17.

    Quelle surprise!

    This was all predicted a long time ago by more truthful news organisations like 'Russia Today' and 'Al Jazeera'. The 'cultural Marxists' of the BBC and other Western news media are losing credibility.

    Secularism is dying in the Muslim world and various flavours of theocracy will take root there. Anyone who thinks this will bring a peaceful world is naive in the extreme.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 16.

    'It is already clear that the liberal-minded parties that have been the focus of much Western media attention are not doing well as the competition hots up.'
    ---

    Wow, we didn't see that coming.

    Well, when I say 'we'...

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 15.

    Most of what Mark said is true.
    Brotherhood has been strong in Egypt esp. rural areas for a long time. And being an Islamist doesn`t mean to go off the deep end unless there are those here who automatically believe that every Muslim is a terrorist by default.
    If majority Egyptians want this proposed ideology, then who are you n me to argue with them.
    But can Salafi practice Shariah...I doubt it.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 14.

    # 1 & 3: I don't get it: what are you saying.
    Is Mark making all this up or reporting incorrect info?

    The ground reality is a whole lot different in these countries compared to what`s propagated in Western media. I`m always shocked to see how things and sentiments stand whenever I visit N. Africa and South Asia, etc.
    Because then I realize, I`ve been fed dribble, propaganda n nonsense all along.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 13.

    Honestly, all my opinions are based on 3 points:
    1. the SCAF is the only capable authority 'now' of handling the situation and criticizing it is futile
    2. Although the trials are important, they must not be the center of attention. Much work is needed regarding reforms. More people die everyday due to deteriorating conditions.
    3. Demonstrations 'now' are needless & self-defeating

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 12.

    I agree that there may be "a close race among Amr Moussa, former diplomat Mohamed ElBaradei", but I also expect another name may be promoted by Islamist coalition. The Musilm Brotherhood now is gaining momentum and building up. Liberals (and other parties) are divided although they realize they hardly stand a chance. They didn't do much to gain popularity and they seem interested in personal gains

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 11.

    Turkey, among all regional powers, is seen as having demonstrated the most support for revolution, as well as most concern about Egypt’s interests. So, I conclude, political climate in Egypt is moving in a new direction that is inimical to American and allied interests. Note: Egypt rejected IMF & WB assistance, though WB sent money to Tunisia & Egypt.

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 10.

    Antipathy to Israel is palpable. Only 3% had a positive impression of Israel; 2% said Israel cares about Egypt’s interests & a puny 1% said Israel had responded to the recent revolution in a positive way. The Camp David Accords: 70% them amended or canceled, less than 17% want to keep them. Who do they like instead? Turkey, which has embraced democracy as well as Islam.

 

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