Vote 2012: YouGov poll suggests Welsh Labour gains

The election is being seen as a key test for the political parties at a national level.

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Political parties are gearing up for the final bout of campaigning for the local council elections in Wales.

Elections are taking place in 21 of Wales' 22 councils on Thursday, with the Anglesey polls delayed until 2013.

Labour's campaign in Wales has appeared to receive a boost from an opinion poll which suggested it could make gains.

Support for Labour appears higher than its share of the vote in the last council, UK election and Welsh assembly polls, according to YouGov's findings.

Asked how they would vote in the Welsh council elections, 48% said they would support Labour, 21% higher than the last time the seats were contested four years ago.

Labour endured a dire night at those elections, losing ground in stronghold areas.

YOUGOV POLL: WALES VOTING INTENTIONS FOR THURSDAY

  • Labour: 48%
  • Conservative: 17%
  • Plaid Cymru: 14%
  • Liberal Democrats: 7%
  • Independents or other candidates: 15%
  • Polling was carried out among 1,039 adults in Wales by YouGov from 12-16 April. The survey was carried out online
  • Source: YouGov for Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre

For local councils, voting intentions suggested that the Tories were on 17% (up 1% on 2008), Plaid 14% (down 3%) and Liberal Democrats 7% (down 6%). Some 15% said they would vote for independent or other candidates.

For a UK general election, 50% in Wales told YouGov for Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre (WGC) they would vote Labour, up 14% on the party's share at the May 2010 general election.

For a UK general election, the poll put Conservatives at 23% (down 3%) Liberal Democrats 7% (down 13%), and Plaid Cymru 12% (up 1%). Other parties collectively were on 9%.

Labour was also ahead when people were asked how they would vote in a Welsh assembly election, with 48% (up 6% from the May 2011 poll) in the constituency section of the ballot. Conservatives were 19% (down 6%), Plaid 18% (down 1%), and Lib Dems 7% (down 4%).

In the regional list section of the assembly election, Labour were on 33% (down 4% on May 2011), Plaid 22% (up 4%), Conservatives 13% (down 10%) and Lib Dems 9% (up 1%). Other parties were on 23%.

Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones scored an average of 4.7 points on a 0-10 approval scale, which YouGov said was the highest of all the UK and Welsh party leaders.

YouGov's total sample size of adults in Wales was 1,039, and its fieldwork was carried out between 12 - 16 April. The survey was carried out online, and YouGov said the results had been weighted and were representative of Welsh adults aged 18 and over.

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