2011: The Year of Sharp Decreases

 

Now we know. The Wales we live in right now is a lot less religious than it was a decade ago and a lot less bilingual too. 2011 turned out to be the Year of Sharp Decreases.

What will we remember in another decade?

That for the first time ever, under half the population in Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire now speak Welsh, that Welsh is the majority language in Gwynedd and Anglesey, nowhere else and that there too, the figures show a sharp drop in the numbers of Welsh speakers.

Ten years ago, the losses in the heartlands of the West were offset by big gains in the South East. Not this time. There are tiny increases in Cardiff and Monmouthshire - the sort that just about register a 0.1% uplift in percentage points - but those are swept aside by the losses in those areas where when you start speaking Welsh, you know that most people around you probably do too.

We may also remember that the biggest increase in the number of Welsh speakers is in the 3 - 5 year old category. The Welsh government "takes some comfort" from the extra 4.5% who ticked that box. Cue the questions of old about very young children and their parents who fill the census: the children go to a Welsh medium school, but do they 'speak Welsh?' Aren't Mum and Dad - if not "over reporting" - perhaps living in hope?

Others will argue that speaking Welsh is, in this context at least, as ill-defined a practice as being a Christian. Take one colleague who said that as a Welsh learner, or as she puts it, "a fluent eavesdropper" she found the Welsh-related questions "deeply unsatisfactory". Should she have put that she speaks, reads and writes Welsh when the answer is "to a degree ... To write yes to all those would make me seem, according to the census, just like you." She will have dealt with her dilemma in one way. Others will have come to a different conclusion and ticked a different box.

The Office for National Statistics don't really do "to a degree". This morning they politely explained that they can't really do "why" and "how come" either. They do facts. Ask them why the numbers of Welsh speakers is down here, there, pretty much everywhere and they'll tell you it's a combination of things - over-reporting in 2001, parents not speaking it to their children, older Welsh speakers dying, fewer children being born, bright, young Welsh speakers leaving the heartlands to come to Cardiff, leaving Wales and disappearing from the figures altogether. They'd point out too that though lower than 2001, the number of Welsh speakers is still higher in 2011 than it was in 1991.

Here's another, big factor to add to the mix - the facts around inward migration. Just over a quarter of the population of Wales was born elsewhere. In fact take a look at the figures from other European countries and you'll find only one where an even higher proportion of the population was born outside its borders - Luxembourg. Most by far of those who've moved to Wales have come from England. That inevitably goes some way to explain how the language is being diluted in areas where Welsh has been dominant for centuries.

As to identity - far greater experts than I am will look at the question, at the tick boxes and the figures and wonder what really we can glean from them.

Two things to finish: Carwyn Jones' children may not thank him but you suspect Mr Jones the Dad will have reached parts of the debate Mr Jones the First Minister could not have by revealing his own children speak Welsh in school - and to him - but never socially, outside school or to their friends. When he talks about "cracking that challenge" it's clear he's speaking from experience.

And one more set of figures: back in 2003 the Welsh government set a target of increasing the number of Welsh speakers by 5% by 2011. It's a target that seems entirely unrealistic now, in particular when you consider the irresistible force of demographics in all of this. They quietly scrapped it last year. Today it's become clear just how far it was out of their reach, long, long before they dropped it.

 
Betsan Powys, Political editor, Wales Article written by Betsan Powys Betsan Powys Former political editor, Wales

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  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 144.

    #139. wooodsey
    " ...Its time now to give them opportunity to use Welsh post 16 "

    Or perhaps it's time to give school children the option to drop Welsh and learn a major European language in it's place.

    I endured compulsory Welsh lessons to age 14. A futile waste of time and resources for pupil, teacher and school. And something I have resented ever since.

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 143.

    As a welsh man who only has a smattering of his mother tongue, I see the welsh language as precious for it shines a light back to our past and reminds us who we are.
    The nay sayers probably have no vested interest but are entitled to their views.
    This said unless the Immigrant invasion stops the uk will have no identity left, we shall all diversify ourselves out of existence.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 142.

    So...I would expect more minority noise; talk in welsh, teach your children in welsh, official letters in welsh, signs in welsh, welsh,welsh, welsh,welsh welsh. Meanwhile we're all laughing in your faces and speaking english, sorry to be brutal but you all know it to be the truth.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 141.

    #139 'ts time now to give them opportunity to use Welsh post 16 and then they'll have a choice.'
    They have been taught a language at a school claimed to be bilingual , and they are claimed to be bilingual. Post 16, they have their school friends who are equally bilingual. So, when talking to their friends: they have a choice.
    That they choose differently to your vision is your problem.

  • Comment number 140.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 139.

    137.Boxer_the_Horse

    So School has proved a success. Its time now to give them opportunity to use Welsh post 16 and then they'll have a choice. Good thinking Boxer

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 138.

    Perhaps Betsan could do some real investigative journalism and answer the questions posted here:
    . What fraction of people choose Welsh at cash machines, to complete a tax return, tax a car ? I.e. all those day to day things where one might be expected use a first language by choice. Because just ticking the Welsh box on the Census form is up there with the Jedi Knights.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 137.

    #131 'the problem is post 16 are not using it' [Welsh] .
    As you also said, Woodsey
    'And its clear what choices people are making.'

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 136.

    133.comeoffit

    Hope your return to planet Zog is a safe one. Too many chips on your shoulders. I have just as many English friends as Welsh and they certainly don't have your trail of thought. Take a chill pill my friend

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 135.

    Comeoffit

    The latter of the blogs you mention pushes the boundaries of decency to the limit,

    Celticrace

    Don't talk to me about bile.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 134.

    Woodsey

    If Barry has a very distinct culture then surely you can define it in words?

    Having a Welsh medium school in Barry is hardly ground shifting reasons to argue "difference"

    Maybe its because of the famous draft dodger the town had?

  • Comment number 133.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 132.

    I see little Welsh hatred, bile or bigotry. I see little gloating, but Detect a great deal of extreme thinking and accusation.
    I am an English speaking Welshman, I have no gripe with the language, I believe the language will survive but it's widespread use will not materialise. I think we need to accept that and accept spending on it needs to be reviewed and priorities for Wales re-defined.

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 131.

    130.cardiff996
    And its clear what choices people are making.

    Another Welsh Comp going in Cardiff I believe perhaps its the increase in Welsh Speakers in Cardiff an they may be using the ATM. There is large increase in Billingual schools the problem is post 16 are not using it.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 130.

    128:
    Welsh wont Die. It has good support, is visable and those that want to use it and learn it now have choice. And its clear what choices people are making.
    There is nothing wrong with this, everything has a balance. It is what it is at the end of the day.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 129.

    126.Desert scorpion

    Barry has Two very successful Welsh Schools both Grade 1. Bristol has equally good schools but they teach through the medium of English.
    Barry has equally a distinct culture

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 128.

    Deary me,
    Same old anti-Welsh prehistoric hatred, bile and bigotry on this blogg. Can you imagine any other people spending so much energy smashing a language and culture and celebrating their own ludite ignorance? What will you do when Welsh is dead? No doubt you will find something else that is precious to attack and vandalise. Cowards.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 127.

    Nope. But come on.......tell the truth. Havent you ever had that little moment of thought as you ponder that all important finger press???
    And if you do press said button, you have to first clear away the dust and cobwebs from the last user in 2005!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 126.

    Woodsey

    What is "Welsh culture" and how does living in Barry differ from living in Bristol?

    The floor is yours, I await with anticipation.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 125.

    #121 'Have you a view on comment 100?' I have the view that it was list of questions addressed to someone else. This is a conversation not an interrogation.
    We seem to be at odds over my attempt to enter into the spirit and use a little conversational Welsh. Where on my keyboard would I find 'symbols' ??
    I can put a circumflex into a Word document, not an Email or a post. Could you demonstrate?

 

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