Minimum wage set to become pre-election battleground

A cleaner sweeps the steps outside the venue of the 2013 Conservative conference

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When the minimum wage was introduced by Labour in 1999, the Conservatives opposed it and suggested it could cost jobs.

Their position subsequently changed, but a group of Conservative MPs - some on the right of the party - believe that "grudging support" for the measure doesn't strike the right tone for a party which claims to be on the side of hard working families.

Some are urging the prime minister to make a speech setting out why his party had been wrong not to introduce it themselves in order to "kill off a negative".

They see parallels with David Cameron's backing for the NHS, another Labour creation, before the last election.

The then opposition leader stated he could sum up his political priorities in three letters - N.H.S - and then attempted to steal a march on Labour by pledging to increase the health budget.

Past errors

These Conservative backbenchers want to see a similar approach to helping the low paid - a "clear the way" speech recognising past errors, followed by an above-inflation increase in minimum wage rates.

And now more influential figures are making their voices heard.

Sources close to the Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith suggest he is in favour of a significant increase - partly because, with the chancellor keen to make further welfare savings, the higher the minimum wage then the lower the expenditure on tax credits to top up low incomes.

The business minister Matt Hancock - a former adviser to George Osborne - previously agreed to an increase in the lower apprentice rate, and is likely to favour an across the board increase now.

Another minister close to the Chancellor, Sajid Javid, told the BBC on Wednesday that the minimum wage "is about 10% lower in real terms, I think, than where it was in 2008" and there was a "a strong case to look at it".

And indeed it is already being examined.

Review

Last September, the business secretary Vince Cable asked the Low Pay Commission - which recommends minimum wage rates - to look at what economic conditions would be needed for a higher than usual rise.

The Commission will report to him - and to David Cameron and Nick Clegg - by the end of next month.

It is well known that Mr Cable wants to see the minimum wage rise as the economy recovers.

However, sources close to the business secretary are making it clear that he has no intention of agreeing to a pre-election inflation-busting boost, unless specifically recommended by the experts, and not simply by fellow politicians.

He is far more likely to accept whatever the Commission recommends and doesn't believe the Chancellor will try to over-rule him.

That's not to say that the Conservatives couldn't pledge a much bigger increase in their next manifesto.

Political ground

But the Lib Dems see the current debate amongst their coalition partners as an attempt to move on to their ground, having alienated more moderate support over Europe and immigration, and aren't minded to help them out just yet.

But some Conservatives say there is a way of appealing to those on low incomes without over-ruling the Low Pay Commission if it opts for a modest rise this year.

These MPs are pressing the Treasury to look at the net - rather than gross pay - of those on the minimum wage.

From April the first ÂŁ10,000 of income will be tax free but workers begin paying national insurance - which to many, feels like a tax - at the lower income of ÂŁ7,775.

By raising the national insurance threshold to ÂŁ10,000 too by the time of the election the Conservatives would be able to say that all those on the minimum wage were better off. That of course would cost, not save, money.

'Top-up'

But there are calls, too, for a minimum wage "top up" in areas of high costs and higher average earnings paid for by employers, not government.

Labour politicians have also talked of backing a significant rise in the minimum wage, but without specific figures and having a higher "minimum" in some sectors of the economy.

But their main thrust is likely to be on pressing companies to pay a higher "living wage" - currently ÂŁ7.65 an hour, rather than the minimum adult hourly rate of ÂŁ6.31.

A future Labour government would be likely to insist that private employers which benefit from public sector contracts pay their employees this higher figure, or above.

Some Conservative strategists believe Labour would be on the back foot if the current government backed a significant increase for the low-paid.

For their part, Labour strategists believe the debate demonstrates that David Cameron is being forced to fight on their territory - that is, he's battling over the cost of living and not the improving state of the economy.

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  90.  
    12:00: Defending the Milibands Daily Politics Live on BBC Two

    Emma Reynolds, Labour's shadow housing minister, is on the Daily Politics defending the Milibands for appearing together on the BBC. "Justine and his kids are obviously a very big part of his life," she says. "I think it is absolutely right that people that stand up and do the decent thing like Ed shouldn't be shot down all the time. I do think people want to know more about him and his background and his family."

     
  91.  
    @BBCNormanS Norman Smith, Assistant political editor, BBC

    tweets: Momentum building behind digital debate. UKIP, lib Dems and Greens set to agree. No 10 " looking at it" . What do Labour do ? #tvdebates

     
  92.  
    @DouglasCarswell UKIP MP Douglas Carswell

    tweets: Thanks for all the suggestions as to what I should ask the PM today. So many things to go on. #Pmq #AskDave

     
  93.  
    11:58: Farage accepts digital debate invite
    Farage

    More from UKIP's Nigel Farage on his decision to take part in a digital election debate: "I hope that the prime minister will muster up the courage to stand by his own words, and show up to try and defend his record in government. Mr Cameron has failed on nearly every pledge he made to the British public in 2010, and it is evident he's afraid of butting heads with UKIP on immigration, the EU, our NHS, defence, education policy and more."

     
  94.  
    11:58: Breaking News

    Nigel Farage has said he would take part in a digital debate organised by YouTube, the Guardian and the Telegraph. The UKIP leader says: "Scrutiny is an important part of democracy, and for this reason I am delighted to accept the Telegraph/Guardian/YouTube invitation to this debate - so that I can make the case to the British electorate on why they should vote UKIP."

     
  95.  
    11:55: Political 'setback' House of Commons Parliament
    Theresa Villiers

    Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers accuses Sinn Fein of "setting back" the political situation in Northern Ireland by withdrawing their support for welfare reforms on Monday.

    Their action has "put in jeopardy corporation tax, and devolution, a financial package and put in jeopardy a fresh approach to the passed" she complains.

     
  96.  
    11:54: 'A plausible way forward'
    Grant Shapps

    Conservative chairman Grant Shapps says he's not familiar with the "digital debate" offer (see 10.40am entry for details). But in general he sounds enthusiastic. "These debates are a good idea, if we can hold it before the election," he tells the Daily Politics. After Andrew Neil explains to him the details he adds: "I still think it would be preferable to have it on the main TV channels, but if the broadcasters can't sort it out this seems like a plausible way forward to me."

     
  97.  
    11:51: Defence spending Daily Politics Live on BBC Two

    Conservative party chairman Grant Shapps doesn't say that the Conservative manifesto will include a pledge to maintain defence spending at 2% of GDP in the next Parliament when pressed on the issue on the Daily Politics. Instead his focus is on providing reassurance about the "defence of the realm". "We will do what is right to protect this country," he says. "We will make sure a future Conservative government will make sure we have not just the regular standing Army which we won't cut, but the equipment [too] to make sure we can defend this country."

     
  98.  
    11:45: Tributes to Lord Molyneaux House of Commons Parliament
    Lord Molyneux

    MPs are paying tribute to former Ulster Unionist Party leader James Molyneaux who died aged 94 earlier this week.

    Northern Ireland Minister Andrew Murrison describes Lord Molyneaux as a "distinguished Second World War veteran and a fine parliamentarian serving Northern Ireland for more than four decades."

    DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson, who represents Lord Molyneaux's former constituency of Lagan valley tells MPs that Lord Molyneaux was a "consummate parliamentarian who provided strong leadership during very dark days in Northern Ireland" who is still "fondly remembered by his constituents"

     
  99.  
    11:43: Defence spending Daily Politics Live on BBC Two
    James Gray MP

    Conservative backbencher James Gray is speaking out against the prime minister's defence spending plans on the Daily Politics, after the Financial Times reported No 10 had asked Oliver Letwin to find ways of including intelligence spending in what's defined as 'defence'. "For the prime minister to be even contemplating tinkering with the accounts… I think is quite wrong," Mr Gray says. "Sticking other things in there and pretending they're part of defence won't wash. People like me won't be fooled by that."

     
  100.  
    11:35: Northern Ireland party funding House of Commons Parliament

    Alliance MP Naomi Long has kicked off proceedings over in the House of Commons urging the government to hurry up and publish a new law to enable the Electoral Commission to publish details of all donations made to Northern Ireland recipients since 2007, and loans made since 2008, will be published.

    The government ran a consultation on creating the law in January last year. Northern Ireland Minister Andrew Murrison says he is "confident draft" legislation will be ready to lay early in the next parliament.

     

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