Reading the signs

 

Here's an early indicator of the result of tonight's big Commons vote on constituency boundaries: are the Welsh Conservatives there?

If the Conservatives think that there's even a minimal chance that the attempt to postpone the boundary review can be defeated, any Conservative who goes AWOL will be in deep, deep, career-ending trouble.

If, on the other hand, the review looks doomed anyway, why make MPs in marginal seats troop through the lobbies to vote in a way that damages their election prospects?

The government was defeated on the bill in the Lords earlier this month

The vote is on a Lords amendment to the Electoral Registration and Administration Bill, postponing the boundary changes needed to reduce the number of MPs to 600 and equalise constituency electorates. And most of the eight Welsh Tories have qualms about voting for a measure which will reduce Welsh representation in Westminster, and know that their vote would be used in evidence against them. So there is a reason to let them off the hook, if there's no prospect of winning the vote - hence if the Welsh Conservatives are there, it's going to be tight.

And my soundings this morning suggest there is no prospect of the Conservatives corralling enough votes from minority parties to outvote the combined forces of Labour and the Lib Dems.

Interestingly, the Leader of the House, Andrew Lansley, has apparently told his troops that the boundaries measure might be resurrected in some way, later on; but that seems a stretch to me. Having reneged on their Coalition agreement commitment to vote through the boundary changes, the Lib Dems would look pretty silly if they u-turned on their u-turn.

Perhaps they may take a hit for failing to back the principle of equalising constituencies, but I doubt the issue will resonate much beyond Westminster. And they will certainly have to expect fallout from their rather cross coalition colleagues.

But they do have a direct strategic interest in keeping the next election as tight as possible (leaving aside the baleful effect of the boundary changes on a number of their MPs) because it maximises their chance of a hung parliament in 2015 and leverage over the next government.

There will be a flip side to the Tory angst their vote will generate: a thaw in relations with Labour. The joke doing the rounds in Portcullis House today is that this shouldn't be thought of as a vote on boundaries at all, but as a paving bill for an Ed-Vince partnership to take over from Nick 'n Dave.

 
Mark D'Arcy Article written by Mark D'Arcy Mark D'Arcy Parliamentary correspondent

The next Parliament: Coalition 2.0 or confidence and supply?

It is beginning to dawn on MPs and peers quite how difficult it is likely to be to govern after the next election.

Read full article

More on This Story

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external Internet sites

Comments

This entry is now closed for comments

Jump to comments pagination
 
  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 15.

    #14 The point is to make all constituencies broadly equal in number of voters so that all votes have a roughly similar weight. (each MP would need to win roughly similar numbers of votes to be elected).

    That will also ensure that a party who wins the election is more likely than under current system to be the party who won the largest number of votes nationally. Labour does not want that

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 14.

    According to those trying to put forward the weasley arguement for using the Electoral Role to count population our children should be afforded no importance in the matter because they can't vote.....

    ....do you REALLY think we shouldn't count our kids even though they can't vote, because that is what you are proposing....????

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 13.

    #11: 'why else would they [the Tories] refuse to use actual population firgures for redrawing the cboundaries'

    Ditching the electoral roll 'in the name of democracy' would be an ambitious argument to run even for the Miliband & Clegg.

    Whatever political party you support, you should be very worried about the precedent that politicians' rigging of electoral boundaries sets

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 12.

    4.nautonier - "...opposed fair constitunecy sizes .........."


    Explain how boundaries based on population are unfair?

    Just because you can only think of dodgy reasons for not registering doesn't mean they aren't litigamate ones.

    Such as not having ever been taught by anyone how to go about registering - after all our schools don't teach it so if your parents don't how would know...???

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 11.

    10.MattWasp


    The MPs who blocked these propsals are (for once) the honest ones - it is the Govt's recomendations anyway, with the BC just a mouth piece forced into Slasher Cameron's agneda....


    ....it is the Tories trying to Gerrymander - why else would they refuse to use actual population firgures for redrawing the cboundaries.....????

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 10.

    What a casual attitude to democracy we have when parliament sets out to manipulate the electoral process in a game of political football.

    My vote may be worth less as a result of this exercise in political cynicism but it is certainly not going to any of the parties who conspired to block the Boundary Commission's recommendations.

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 9.

    All this Dog of an incompetent govt is doing is wasting public money chasing after their vanity projects: so far they have wasted £75m on AV, £12m on Boundary changes and planning on at least another £75 on Euro Referendum. Austerity what austerity? That only applies to the people they have pushed into a cycle of Welfare dependency!

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 8.

    #6 the AV campaign was no different to any other campaign - I would prefer that politicians did not make personality attacks on each other but it is at least 30 years too late to stop that. If Clegg cannot stomach that sort of campaign then politics is the wrong job for him.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 7.

    Fair play to the liberals .
    Lets hope the Tories take the hint and get on with coalition politics .

  • rate this
    +3

    Comment number 6.

    The AV campaigning was dirty and showed the true face of the Tories in regards to the coalition.
    Pay Back is the veritable proverbial eh, Mr Cameron.
    Uhhohohoho Ahahahaha Hawwr Hawwr Hawrrr...

  • rate this
    -3

    Comment number 5.

    If people choose not to be registered to vote why should the constitutional boundaries take any notice of them?

    There will always be some people who fail toregister due to illness or misunderstandings but those should be a small minority.

    As usual Labour is trying to fiddle the system so that safe Labour seats have less registered voters than others. Then there is postal voting shambles

  • rate this
    -4

    Comment number 4.

    Labour opposed fair constitunecy sizes on the basis of there being 6.5 millions as not registered for voting (as mainly in Labour metro areas)

    Why so many avoiding registration?

    Evasion of Labour's Sky High Metro Council Taxes?
    Evasion of UK BA by illegal immigrants?
    Culture of disobedience?

    Sounds like Labour all right and their 'big permissive society'?

  • rate this
    +4

    Comment number 3.

    Today is a good day.

  • rate this
    +4

    Comment number 2.

    Superb news - the Tories lost the boundary vote.

    That'll teach 'em !

  • rate this
    -3

    Comment number 1.

    LibDems are acting like a spoilt 5 year old having a temper tantrum

    If they believe that the boundary changes are fair - and by comparison to other countries it is clear we have too many MPs - then just vote for them. If they think the boundary changes are unfair then explain why they are unfair

 

Features

BBC © 2014 The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.