The truth behind UK migration figures

 
Heathrow border control

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Ever wondered how many people are moving to, and leaving, the UK? If so, you're not the only one - the official figures are said by some experts to be based on not much more than guesswork.

Yes, despite few issues mattering more to politicians and the public than migration, the UK still does not have an accurate system for counting people in and out.

The e-borders scheme - which was meant to do this job - is still a work in progress, and despite government assurances to the contrary, there are some who fear it might stay that way.

Instead the government relies on the answers given by a sample of travellers who agree to be stopped and questioned by a team of social survey interviewers at Heathrow and other main air, sea and rail points of entry to the UK.

And despite the increasingly high hurdles to jump through to get a visa to come to the UK, it seems there is no way of knowing if someone is still in the country when it expires.

UK population

Crowd of shoppers
  • According to the 2011 census there are 53 million people in England; 3.1 million in Wales; and 1.8 million in Northern Ireland
  • The figure for Scotland - and the whole of the UK - will be announced in December
  • The population of England and Wales has risen by 3.7 million in a decade - the largest increase since records began
  • The growth was fuelled by increased life expectancy, a rise in fertility rates and immigration
  • The 2011 census could be the last - the government is looking into cheaper and more responsive alternatives

Keith Vaz, chairman of the influential home affairs committee says he finds it incredible that a supermarket loyalty scheme can collect and store details on the shopping habits of millions of people, yet a similar database can not be set up to record arrivals and departures.

Particularly when the coalition government sets such store by reducing "net migration" - the difference between the number of people entering and leaving the country.

So if Britain does not count everybody in as they arrive, and count them out again as they depart, where exactly do the net migration figures announced each quarter by the government come from?

The main source is the International Passenger Survey (IPS), which was designed in the early 1960s to find out how much foreign tourists were spending in the UK - something it is still used for today.

It works something like this: There are about 240 IPS officials stationed at major airports and ports around the country.

They pick out every 10th, 20th or 30th passenger streaming through arrivals or departures, depending on how busy they are that day, and ask if they wouldn't mind taking part in a short survey.

"There may be times when, owing to a particular flood of passengers, you just cannot keep an accurate count. Do not panic if this happens but keep counting as best you can," advises the Office for National Statistics training manual.

'Hopelessly inadequate'

The ONS takes the raw IPS data and adds information about asylum seekers and migration statistics from Northern Ireland, as well as figures for people who have entered the country on short-term visas and decided to ask to extend their stay, before arriving at a final immigration figure.

About 300,000 people are interviewed each year by IPS officials - about 0.2% of the 200 million who enter and leave the UK over the same period.

The IPS has been considerably beefed up in the past three years, after it came in for stinging criticism from senior figures, including Bank of England governor Mervyn King, who branded it "hopelessly inadequate".

The ONS admits the survey is still not perfect but points out that 800,000 people are sampled to find the 300,000 interviewees and it has cast its net wider than Heathrow, where most interviewers were based, to other airports around the country and ferry terminals at Dover and Portsmouth it says 95% of travellers now "have a chance" of being interviewed.

It also has the virtue of being long established and relatively cheap.

But it is entirely voluntary and despite the training manual's advice to interviewers to be cheerful at all times - "no one wants to be interviewed by an unsmiling person with a dreary monotonous voice". Although the response rate is 78%, the ONS says that only 2% of people approached refuse to take part in it.

Passengers travelling at night, when interviews are suspended, or on smaller, low volume routes also slip through the net.

The one thing the IPS has over other sources of data on immigration - such as the number of non-EU passengers passing through border control, new NHS registrations or new National Insurance numbers - is that it records how long migrants say they intend to stay in the country.

Graph How accurate are the official net migration figures?

But its major flaw, according to experts, is when it comes to measuring how many people are leaving the country.

IPS emigration estimates are based on interviews with just 2,000 people (who, the ONS point out, are found from interviews with about 400,000 interviews) - and there is currently no alternative source of data to measure them against.

This matters because the coalition government has promised to reduce net migration - the difference between those entering and leaving the country - to "tens of thousands" by 2015.

'Difficult'

Home Secretary Theresa May hailed "the first significant falls in net migration since the 1990s" in her keynote speech to the Conservative Party conference.

What she failed to mention was that when that "significant fall", from 252,000 to 216,000, was announced, the margin of error was also revealed for the first time.

What happened to e-borders?

Tony Blair
  • Tony Blair launched the £1.2bn e-borders programme in 2003
  • It was meant to collect details from passenger lists of all people entering and leaving the UK so that they can be checked against security watch lists
  • All flights from outside the EU are now part of e-borders
  • Ports and railway stations are due to follow by 2014
  • EU flights are meant to be covered by 2015
  • But that will depend on reaching voluntary agreements with other nations - and solving commercial problems
  • The US firm handed a £750m contract by Labour to deliver e-borders, Raytheon, was fired by the coalition in 2010 for "extremely disappointing" performance
  • The company is seeking £500m in damages from the government
  • The e-borders contract was split in two with IBM and Serco given the job of getting a system in place at nine airports before the Olympics
  • The contract for the post-Olympics element of the programme - the biggest part of it - has yet to be awarded

This showed that the main source of these figures was only accurate to within plus or minus 35,000 people.

In other words, according to the ONS, the fall was not yet statistically significant.

This does not mean, of course, that net migration has not fallen, just that, according to some experts, the government's main method of measuring its progress is little better than a rough guess.

"It is very difficult to assess how well the government is progressing toward its target of reducing net-migration to the 'tens of thousands', or to evaluate the effects of specific policy changes," says Dr Martin Ruhs, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.

"In simple terms the government could miss the 'tens of thousands' target by many tens of thousands and still appear to have hit it - conversely the government could hit, or even exceed its target and still appear to have missed it."

The government denies that the IPS is a faulty instrument for measuring its progress on migration.

In a statement to the BBC, Immigration Minister Mark Harper said: "The International Passenger Survey already provides the ONS with a reliable method of measuring net migration.

"By 2015, we aim to reintroduce exit checks using the e-borders system, which will allow us to build an even more accurate picture of the number of people entering and leaving the country."

A brainchild of the Tony Blair era, when it seemed as if there was no problem that could not be solved by a multi-billion pound IT project, e-borders was meant to replace the old paper-based embarkation system, which was scrapped in the 1990s.

Since then departures from the UK have not been officially recorded.

So it is possible for migrants to enter on short-term visas and - unless they notify the authorities of their intention to stay longer or are really, really unlucky and are picked up in a Border Force raid - stay in the UK or leave the country years later without showing up in the official records.

It was one of the justifications Mr Blair made - and is still making - for the introduction of an identity card system.

E-borders which was primarily meant to improve security, when combined with a biometric identity card scheme, began collecting details of passenger and crews for inbound flights from outside the EU at nine airports in March.

The plan now is to extend it to ports and railway stations by 2014 and to passengers from within the EU by 2015.

But that will depend on persuading all EU countries to share passenger and crew list information - quite a number of them regard this as illegal under European free movement laws.

High hopes

And there are some, such as Keith Vaz and Sir Andrew Green, of think tank Migration Watch, who fear the project, which was meant to be up and running in time for the Olympics, may have stalled altogether.

"The government will rightly be held to account if they fail to achieve a steady and substantial reduction in net migration, whatever the technical details," said Sir Andrew.

"But it is time we were told more about the purpose and progress of the e-borders programme."

The statisticians at the ONS still have high hopes that e-borders will one day be able to provide reliable migration statistics.

But they say it will be 2018 at the earliest before they can even start incorporating data from the programme into their estimates - and there are no plans to replace the IPS as the main source of migration data.

So until the Home Office can be persuaded to come up with a different method - the men and women of the IPS will continue to put on their best smiles and try not to panic as they scan the arrivals halls of Britain's ports and airports.

And net migration statistics should continue to be taken with a major dose of salt.

Graph showing increase in migration
 

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  • rate this
    +9

    Comment number 554.

    The biggest problem is the social housing shortage, and the fact that potential immigrants with children know that they can jump the queue.

    What we need are tents, shipping containers and other temporary solutions, so that immigrants who come are safely cared for.

    We need to help these people, but not at the expense of having some of our indigenous population living under railway bridges.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 553.

    As a British Citizen who is effectively exiled from the UK by the insane requirement to have 64,000 quid before I can bring my wife there, I'm happy to see that the system is so effectively targeted. /sarcasm.

    Seems the best thing would be to come in on a tourist visa and just stay. I wish i was more dishonest.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 552.

    So why do I have to spend hours standing in queues at passport control for our "ultra-strict" non-schengen checking system to swipe and record my passport details if its all just thrown away???

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 551.

    #535 thanks very much for that khuli.....amsterdam treaty 1999... ok so boo to you blair...but we got an opt out...so go for it cameron... opt out.

  • rate this
    +6

    Comment number 550.

    There is a difference, Yes we may not be 100% British if you look back 100 years BUT we face an epidemic where British people are being outnumbered by immigration. Please do not play the racist card but all it takes is basic observation and basic maths to work it out. If you choose to ignore it you are the ignorant one.
    Mind you when sharia law is in the UK I hope you take back your ignorance.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 549.

    Typical government...They never know who coming and who's going!
    Well for sure I went!

  • Comment number 548.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this
    +5

    Comment number 547.

    UK immigration would not be an issue if it wasn't so easy for so many migrants to come here & be massively subsidised & given special treatment that does not apply to Brits going to their own country as is not 'reciprocated'. BBC always confuses the issues & is a good reason why time has come for BBC to be broken up & be better managed instead of too many siitting around there & reading Guardian

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 546.

    @537. Please allude me to the point you are trying to make ?
    I have been in a plane so that makes me somesort of Champagne Socialist ?
    I used to jump out of them aswell when I was in the Army so I am sorry to further dip a fly in your ointment of stereotyping.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 545.

    // hmmmaybebut
    2 HOURS AGO
    We're all migrants if you look far enough back into our own family histories. Usually they came carrying a sword and claiming the country as theirs..//

    Indeed- mass migration is generally a disaster for the indigenous population, accompanied by violence and distruption.

    This time is no exception. Well done for pointing it out.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 544.

    522

    I think you might find that land is being used for grazing livestock so you can have something tasty on your plate. No doubt you also look down your nose at the people who slaughter the animals. You may be interested to know that much of this is done these days according to sharia and kosher rules.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 543.

    534. Aduphanel - how can I be an immigrant when born here!!!!!

    Having lived abroad as an expat in Asia & the US it has been interesting comparing & contrasting attitudes across the globe.

    While we sit & distract ourselves with this & other issues they're welcoming talent from across the globe & taking work away from this country.

    As a Brit I think that's more important.

  • rate this
    +4

    Comment number 542.

    The whole mess is due to Labours Tony Blair and his goverments non-immigration policy, The human rights act and an inability by all of the previous Gvments and the present one to have a sensible policy on immigration. Like I said before if you cant claim out of a sytem until you have put in - you will get better quality immigration. Should keep most sensible people happy.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 541.

    #533" right wing racism in bishops stortford..." god what a laugh...you really need to go the the herts and essex hospital in stortford and see those nice young doctors in white coats my friend.

  • rate this
    +8

    Comment number 540.

    I really don't understand why they can't track this accurately. Most people have electronic passports these days and even if not, everyone has a passport number. Visas are linked to a passport so why can't they add all arrivals and their visa details to a database, remove them when they leave and flag up people who have not left and whose visa has expired. It's really not that hard

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 539.

    Somehow this debate has deviated from the real issue, i.e. the successive governments have left the doors open and their failure to manage and control immigration.

  • rate this
    +3

    Comment number 538.

    @511 the levellers

    What is your evidence that multiculturalism has enriched/made the country better? Making these outworn statements rather suggests that you are stuck in a very deep Marxist/sociological/turn-the-other-cheek/PC rut.

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 537.

    522.TheTakeleySocialist


    "Foreigners don't create Ghettos , it's the people who chose to make the exodus from London to DailyMailshire in Essex and Kent". I would say its the people who fly from Stanstead and live in small villages in rural communities.

  • rate this
    +8

    Comment number 536.

    522.TheTakeleySocialist
    'Everytime I fly from Stanstead I see acres and acres of land, un-used and unfarmed by Tory/UKIP voting farmers hypocritally in receipt of Farming Subsidies from the EU'

    But it would be okay if said farmers voted Labour ?

    Just because land is currently unused doesn't mean we should concrete over it and overpopulate the country further !

  • rate this
    +3

    Comment number 535.

    514.ronnieboy1

    who actually agreed and signed the document that stated free movement around the eu for all eu citizens?
    -----
    Free movement arose with the Schengen Agreement in 1985 and the subsequent Schengen Convention in 1990. The Schengen rules were absorbed into European Union law by the Amsterdam Treaty in 1999. The UK & Ireland are the only 2 EU member states with an optout.

 

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