A postcard to the Westminster village

 

Dear all,

Been away from SW1 for a few days. Missed so much - Britain getting even deeper into recession (unless, that is, the figures turn out to be wrong), George being replaced as chancellor by Vince (unless, that is, he replaces Nick as leader), Ed teaming up with Francois in Paris (unless, that is, it's on tax, since they disagree about the top rate and the financial transaction tax).

After a week watching, listening and thinking but not reporting, everything looks a little bit clearer than it did. I am struck that, once again, conventional wisdom (CW) is as wrong as it so often is.

CW now has it that Cameron is pondering whether to sack his chancellor who is "under more pressure than ever before", the Coalition is falling apart and Ed Miliband should be measuring the curtains as he prepares to move into Number 10.

The reality is that the prime minister is as likely to appoint David Beckham as chancellor as some of the candidates I've heard suggested.

George Osborne George Osborne doesn't know what pressure is...

As for the pressure George Osborne is said to be under, it would have seemed nothing to former residents of Number 11.

Callaghan battled in vain to stop devaluation; Healey tried to take on the unions and ended up making a humiliating journey to the IMF; Howe's policies produced, at first, soaring inflation, interest rates and unemployment and a call to change course by 365 economists; Lawson became locked in a battle with Margaret Thatcher over the fundamentals of economic policy; Lamont presided over the ejection of the pound from the ERM, interest rates of 15% and the defeat in the Commons of his Budget tax plans whilst Darling faced the credit crunch, bank collapses, the 10p tax debacle etc...

Crucially and surprisingly, there is no split in the Coalition on its economic strategy. Vince Cable has not called in private or in public for a new approach although if he were chancellor he would be bolder with investment plans and with the banks who are still failing to deliver credit.

Finally, I struggle to detect much momentum for an alternative economic strategy.

Yes, the IMF says the government should consider changing course but the organisation's head backs the chancellor.

Yes, the deputy head of the OECD says it's time for a new approach but his boss does a better job of advocating Coalition policy than any minister has.

Yes, business groups are growing increasingly impatient of ministerial promises of easier credit, greater investment and a new airport tomorrow but never today. Yes, the Tory right lobby for a return to the reassuring certainties of the Thatcher era - tax cuts, deregulation and new laws to restrict the unions - but there is no powerful faction in the Cabinet or on the right which looks capable of forcing a change in approach.

Ed Miliband Ed Miliband was said to be finished - not any more

Yet, despite all this, this is a moment of real political danger for the government. Something real has changed since the last long Westminster break in the run up to Christmas.

Do you remember what CW was saying then? Ed Miliband was said to be finished and unelectable and the subject of muttering, if not, plots in the Labour Party. Not any more.

It's not just that the Labour leader has successfully exploited the government's difficulties, grown in confidence and silenced the doubters. It is, quite simply, that the economy has not performed as the government predicted it would. It is the numbers, stupid - falling GDP and rising borrowing - combined with a loss of ministerial competence - all those U-turns - which have spooked the electorate.

The Coalition has now lost the benefit of the doubt on its central purpose. Voters are remembering that Gordon Brown, never mind the two Eds, warned that cutting too far and too fast might kill recovery.

Labour has re-gained the opportunity of a hearing when it spells out what it would do differently. At the same time there is the danger that any slip will be pounced on as evidence that the party is not ready to govern again.

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats could lose it if they look more interested in talking to themselves than talking to the country about what they're going to do.

Starting this Autumn Ed Miliband must decide whether the country simply wants reassurance that Labour can be trusted again or whether the electorate is ready to embrace real change.

The Conservatives must choose between simply seeking to regain their reputation for competence or building a prospectus - on Europe, immigration and human rights - for what they would do if allowed to govern alone.

The Lib Dems must decide whether they can differentiate themselves from the Tories whilst still making a success of the coalition.

It is all to play for. Once the summer's Games are over, the political games will begin.

PS

I am taking a summer break from regular blogging but will be back in September. Tweets will continue from time to time but the hashtag #corr allows me to tweet musings and irrelevances which do not get automatically copied onto this page/

 
Nick Robinson, Political editor Article written by Nick Robinson Nick Robinson Political editor

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  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 65.

    James@51
    "no alternative"?
    To just watching 'national finances'?

    Yes. we must 'bump along' as we make our bets, prepare to make & sell better value…

    The question @50, again: WHAT is worth making?

    'Growth', in bubbles may mislead, as also shrinkage, investing

    The answer to @50: what WE can agree, in imagination & conscience

    We need the security & engagement of ALL, to 'bump' into lift-off

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 64.

    AndyC555 @63
    "losers"
    And "in it together"?
    Someone has it wrong!

    The 'corrupt' have let us down, badly

    Their 'interests' in conflict with ours

    Those 'silver spoons' scoping our future

    The scapegoats and smoking guns hardly relevant

    More need to 'worry' about more than 'their work'

    We work 'for all', or against all

    Not to pick on you Andy, just doing your job

    We need equality, for trust

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 63.

    Grief

    If all the lefty-losers on here put as much energy into their work as they do in wailing and gnashing against at the phantom demons they hate they'd be too busy being succesful to worry.

    You should worry less about the silver spoons you think some people were born with and more about the huge chips on your shoulder.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 62.

    Well Nick enjoy your holiday, please don't feel obliged to tweet - that is the one thing Cameron got right.

    The economy is a strange one - some areas of the economy are definitely growing with proper long term strategies - retail is suffering as we become savvy customers waiting for the inevitable discounting.

    As we become less profligate the economy appears worse - but what is the reality?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 61.

    re#42
    Aah! A prescription from DrBobM at last. But discounting debts (I assume you mean all) to a penny in the £ to me is a bit like saying to an alcoholic, dilute your booze 1:99 with water but after a few years you can go back on the full strength stuff.

    Effectively it means the debt-free have footed ALL the bill for the debt-laden to hock themselves again!

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 60.

    Nick, have a good holiday although after nearly two weeks between Blogs I thought you might have had it already. Perhaps so you could get Blogs lots as the conference/re-shuffle speculation mounts.

    (Month off? Hmmmn, not bad - wish I could work for the Beeb!)

    Please leave this Blog open so that posters can chat amongst ourselves about political matters as they arise in your absence. Thanks.

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 59.

    It's the economy.
    And the posh boys haven't got a clue.
    They must have been dreaming when it was covered in general studies at school.

    Think about it: - where else are they going to learn. Not through experience - that's for sure.

    Perhaps Cameron will learn from his weekly audience with the ex chair, Ridley, of Northern Rock.

    And that is what we are up against. - A real bunch of losers.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 58.

    56.jon112dk

    #53

    'structure for real sustainable growth' ?

    ++
    No political party has an idea on this or refuses to give details - probably the case that there is not a single politician in Westminster who will table a full strategic structural plan for real, sustainable growth - as either the politicians simply do not know and/or the details would be too unpopular in some quarters

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 57.

    The party that makes it policy to destroy house prices will save the country. Stop the diverting of money into over pricing homes that should go into companies making or doing things. Restrict lending for property and raise interest rates.

  • rate this
    -3

    Comment number 56.

    #53

    'structure for real sustainable growth' ?

    We surely know the formula for real, sustainable failure ... the tories.

    Roll on 2015 ... tories clearly trapped in their own ideology, unable to change course. Things so bad even a pantomime horse could beat them, so labour in for a win.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 55.

    With such rare appearances here, on this format, some might say your break until September will make little difference?

    However, enjoy your "musings and irrelevances" (your words) in Tweetland.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 54.

    "Thank God the athletes have arrived! Now we can move on from leftie multi-cultural crap. Bring back red arrows, Shakespeare and the Stones!"MP for Cannock Chase Aidan Burley conservative Nick what about this isnt this what all Tories think about the UK and the NHS its not his fault he just spoke his mind its about time all Tories spoke their minds so we can really understand what their plans are

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 53.

    Liebore Party debt monsters keep saying that UK needs (the 'outcome') -'growth' but will not give any details on the structure they believe is needed to deliver; as previously GDP was fiddled by Liebore bloating the public sector & deregulated property lending. The party that can 'win' & have a working majority at the next general election has to detail a 'structure for real sustainable growth'

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 52.

    Enjoy your holiday in the real world Nick, and recharge your batteries before returning to the self-important world of politics, where mediocre individuals labour under the delusion that their mouthing matter.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 51.

    On the real, and only issue the national finances, there is no alternative. Silly little variations at most. The big problem is not the statistical nonsense of double dip recession that was obviously coming even back in Labour time. Basically we are bumping along flat, which is a remarkable achievement actually. Things could easily be a great deal worse and with still no realistic alternative.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 50.

    John_Bull @32
    Putting workers into 'the reserves'?

    Why not SHARE a CONTROLLED austerity?
    Why destabilise CONFIDENCE & DEMAND?

    Our debate dodges the real issue:
    Our need to be 'in it together'

    Together we COULD cut low-value imports
    Reduce need to borrow, cut deficit then debt

    BUT now: 2-3 years to build factory, with debt
    Pay back AFTER, all making value & profit!

    What is WORTH making?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 49.

    George I have a trust fund worth tens of millions in the cayman islands Osbourn is under no pressure because all his personal wealth and his state pension and future benefits are safely tucked away and will never be damaged by his economic policies driven by dogma unlike the average person who works a real job full time and doesent get to holiday on billionaires private islands and yachts.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 48.

    Whistling in the dark

    Our pundits, IMF and OECD, as ever, back both horses.

    Leaning to alternating 'winners', unable to ditch failed 'tips'.

    Fond of addressing 'structure', to sell pain for others,

    But simply unable to address fairness and confidence,

    The need for full employment, stable control of demand,

    Absolute need of equality for representative democracy.

    NO 'momentum' in the Village!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 47.

    The LibDem coalition is still and always will be a much better proposition tha anything with Loadsaballs and Millipeed in it. And #46 Suneshinesuzy accusing you Nick of being a Tory well I never, you are about as much Tory as I am Socialist - NO CHANCE mate. Enjoy your break as much as I will. and by the #46 it is toeing and not towing !

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 46.

    Still towing the old tory line then - not sure there's much point ever reading this blog anyway.

 

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