DUP's Peter Robinson plans appeal to Catholic voters

 
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny and Northern Ireland First Minister Peter Robinson

Peter Robinson's plan to start appealing to Catholic voters, like his statement of support for integrated education, is one of those initiatives which - on first sight - makes you want to go back and check that he is the leader of the DUP, not the Alliance party.

Indeed with Alliance coming up on his bow in Castlereagh this may be a recognition from the DUP leader that, with the Ulster Unionists badly wounded, the battles of the future will be over the moderate "happy enough with the status quo" ground.

Mr Robinson's article in the Belfast Telegraph comes in response to the recent Life and Times Survey which recorded 52% Catholic support for a future within the UK, a finding which, as the blog has previously reported, nationalist politicians found hard to credit.

For a sense of how big a challenge it will be for the DUP to pick up Catholic voters it's worth taking a look at this research paper on the Assembly website.

Obviously there are no statistics for the number of DUP voters who were Catholics or Sinn Fein voters who were Protestants, as no-one asks your religion when you walk into a polling station.

However, the research paper shows that only 2% of DUP transfers in the Assembly elections came from nationalist voters - the same percentage as transferred to UUP.

The DUP may at least take solace from the fact that its percentage, whilst tiny, has remained constant. In the UUP's case nationalist transfers dropped from 7% in the last Stormont election in 2007.

'Symbolic purpose'

Sinn Fein's unionist transfers are running at roughly the same rate as the DUP's nationalist tally, at about 2.2%.

Not surprisingly, the SDLP did a lot better at attracting unionist transfers - their tally being 13%.

Alliance, predictably, got a more even spread - with 26% of transfers from nationalists and 24% from unionists.

So whilst Mr Robinson argues that "identity-based voting patterns are crumbling away", the DUP will have its work cut out if it's to build from it's current 2% nationalist transfer base.

Most voters continue to live in segregated communities and, even if nationalists see Northern Ireland as less of a cold house, it doesn't mean they are comfortable defining themselves as unionists.

The DUP leader may be calculating that his comments serve not just a literal but a symbolic purpose.

For the DUP, converting Catholics is a tough proposition, but impressing moderate-minded Protestants that you are on the right trajectory for the future is an easier task.

 
Mark Devenport Article written by Mark Devenport Mark Devenport Political editor, Northern Ireland

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 14.

    There is significant support in Great Britain for Ireland to reunify as a political entity.

    The British Social Attitudes Survey in 2007 found 32.25% supported Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK, and 40.16% supported Irish reunification.

    The poll has been run 19 times between 1983 and 2007, with each result being in favour of Irish unity.

    You can throw random polls in for anything

  • rate this
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    Comment number 13.

    Salthill

    THANK YOU

    Your contribution at post 11 makes my point splendidly.

    You voted for a party as bigoted as me.... LOL!

    What can I say about your claim to be “well educated”? Clearly that education didn’t include grammar, syntax & punctuation.

    Susie
    Carryduff

  • rate this
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    Comment number 12.

    I was also born a catholic and have travelled widely but maybe not as far as some who have seen oppression at every corner of the north east of our country. I wasn,t born during "troubles" but during a war when some stood against the oppressors who shot plastic bullets at children who were in primary education. I voted Sinn Fein in may and will see unification of this island.

    Eyes wide open

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 11.

    susie flood how dare you imply that Catholics who might vote DUP are insane ,you've demonstrated that you are at least as bigoted as the DUP .I was born Catholic here during the troubles but have travelled widely and am well educated , to the extent that while I believe in a God , I refuse to adhere to a religion that gives it a bigoted name . I wish to remain in the UK and I voted DUP in May

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

    LookerOn 70% of people in Ireland voted for pro-unity parties during the 1918 election. Ireland during this period was far from stable under the Union. In fact, Ireland has never been stable under the Union. The fact that the free state (1921-2010) was politically stable to a degree and more than the old Ireland, the north, is a testament to the Irish and proves the Union doesn't work for Ireland.

 

Comments 5 of 14

 

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