Analysis: Is the thin blue line thinner?


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How thin is the thin blue line? That's the question after three years of cuts to police forces in England and Wales - and the prospect of more to come.

Thursday saw the publication of three important reports on police and crime. And they point in the same direction. The evidence seems to show it is possible to cut the costs of policing while improving public confidence.

The number of crimes recorded by police in England and Wales fell by 7% in the year ending March 2013.

That fall, broadly backed up by separate figures in the government's Crime Survey for England and Wales, means a downward crime trend which dates back to the mid-1990s is continuing.


Now, this is the interesting part. The number of police officers has fallen below 130,000 for the first time since 2002. That means there are 14,000 fewer officers than the record high of 2009-10.

What's more, another official survey says victims are more satisfied than ever with police performance.

So is this proof that it doesn't matter how big your police force is, but what you do with it that counts?

Corny cliches aside, it might be - but the evidence is very, very complicated.

It's stating the obvious that putting a police officer on every street corner would clean up muggings overnight. But the world isn't like that - and the success of the coalition's crime strategy partly relies on the numbers game not being the main game.

This is where the HMIC comes in, because it is analysing the capability of the police to cope with cuts.

Its latest report is broadly good news for the police - but also makes clear that some forces are at a critical juncture between getting it right - and setting themselves up to fail.

Coping with cuts

The HMIC says most of the 43 forces have responded well to cuts because chiefs have tried to wield the axe smartly, rather than just swiftly.

But it warns that five forces could struggle with cuts after 2015.

Two of them - Bedfordshire and Lincolnshire - are small forces which appear to have few options left. In contrast, the HMIC says that the much larger West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire forces have made short-term savings rather than "transforming their efficiency" - jargon for rethinking the organisation from top to bottom.

The final force, Northamptonshire, is described as having "significant performance issues" which it will struggle to deal with while making the cuts.

Putting aside those five, what are the other forces getting right? The HMIC says it comes down to focus on the frontline, collaboration and modernisation.

Big spending years

During the big-spending Labour years, police numbers swelled. But critics say the cash wasn't used efficiently.


  • 2003: 84%
  • 2004: 84%
  • 2005: 83%
  • 2006: 82%
  • 2007: 82%
  • 2008: 81%
  • Source: House of Commons Library, Home Office, HMIC

Official figures show that the proportion of officers on the "front line" began to decline despite police strength rising. That's because more and more of them were doing jobs in the station rather than dealing directly with crime.

That trend has now reversed and some forces are close to having nine out of 10 officers in frontline jobs - with Dorset aiming for 97% by 2015.

What that means, says the HMIC, is that forces are trying harder to protect the front line - even if they cannot preserve the numbers.

But here's the problem - what happens when the cuts become very tight indeed?

The HMIC says that neighbourhood policing teams are being eroded - the teams that know and understand their beat. These officers are doing more work in the stations or joining emergency response units which, according to Labour, are already struggling thanks to cuts.

What's more, the inspectorate says that in some areas these officers have been replaced by Police Community Support Officers who have no powers of arrest.

The inspectorate won't say this is the death knell for the "bobby on the beat" - but it could change the balance between preventing crime and reacting to it.

And this is the central point that Tom Winsor, the chief inspector of constabulary, keeps making. He says the police must spend more time focusing on would-be offenders, likely victims and potential crime hotspots because that ultimately cuts crime and saves money.

Steve White of the Police Federation: "We've got to the absolute limit"

The vice-chair of the Police Federation of England and Wales, Steve White, says he believes police forces are at the limits of what they can do with their current resources.

So how can cuts be made to work? The answer says the HMIC is technology and collaboration - but the results so far are extremely patchy.

Tom Winsor says that in these days of smartphones, too many officers are putting their own devices in station lockers and are going out carrying mobile phones which are basically useless bricks.

These same officers are wasting time going to and from the station to perform simple tasks that, as anyone with a mobile internet enabled device knows, could be done remotely and instantaneously. Too many police forces are stuck in the technological dark ages.

The bigger problem, says the HMIC, is the "missed opportunity" of collaboration. Some forces are working so closely together now that it amounts to a "merger by osmosis".

But others aren't working with their neighbours at all and are duplicating expensive jobs which they could do together or out-source.

So this appears to be the real challenge as the cuts will continue. If forces cannot rethink every single part of what they do, then they cannot ensure that they have maximised the numbers of officers who are focused on crime. And that's when the thin blue line, may become very thin indeed.

Dominic Casciani Article written by Dominic Casciani Dominic Casciani Home affairs correspondent

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  • rate this

    Comment number 217.

    Continue to chip away at the usual targets - police, armed forces and then watch the waste of money on the NHS, overseas aid, benefits, rises in MPs salary. The Police cannot manage the task as it is and centralising activity to save money is failing leaving people afraid of going about their normal day to day business. The setting up of Police Commissioners has had no impact or influence.

  • rate this

    Comment number 216.

    This revelation comes hot on the tail of the recent news that 95% of prosecutions now involve CCTV.
    That's where the wages from redundant police officers are redirected to. And it conveniently sets up the basis for even more surveillance equipment to be installed.
    If you've done nothing wrong you've nothing to fear?
    The problem with that is new laws constantly being made making new things illegal.

  • rate this

    Comment number 215.

    Ref the police! Ask yourself when did you last call the police for anything?? Scare story BBC!

  • rate this

    Comment number 214.

    Police can only do a good job with the goodwill and support of the public. Until governments realise this and don't expect them to enforce unpopular laws that put them into conflict with the majority, we will have a situation where feelings such as the majority of responses on here are brought to the fore. A politicised police service will never succeed. Wake up & smell the coffee Mrs. May.

  • rate this

    Comment number 213.

    Strange how in the 1940s people were able to make their own decisions aboutsmoking/drinking etcNo bother about being overweight thanks to RATIONING.
    Our country has politicians who want to CONTROLnot serve..
    Not enough freedom for people to choose for themselves without some busy body wanting to "DO "something!
    Will it change? Not really! democracy an illusion,if you go off what govt deem "news"!

  • rate this

    Comment number 212.

    its sad to think that at one stage this country was famous for its industrial revolution look at it now a nation of pencil pushers corrupt politicians and plenty of pound shops where are the brains of Britain how did we ever get in to this mess and the answer is greed on a large scale that was never dealt with because it came from within the corridors of power.

  • rate this

    Comment number 211.

    Why is it that we are stuck with a lackadaisical government that only sees profits to be made by sucking up to its friends.
    Cutting everything else in the process.
    Well that may work, for the government, for a little while.
    All you need however is a prolonged dry spell with high temperatures perhaps.
    Then things will boil over.
    Is now the time to cut police numbers?

    The government hasn't a clue.

  • rate this

    Comment number 210.

    The police blew it when they started harassing motorists. Anyone under under 60 is pretty likely to have grown up in a world where their contact with the police was not a face to face chat on their way down to the shops, but being eye balled from a traffic car. Many police do a great job, but they need to be far more available - not just called when things go very wrong.

  • rate this

    Comment number 209.

    I am not sure "thinner" is the appropriate word and while I accept it is dependant upon where you live, I think there are significant parts of this country where the blue line has become that "thin" its invisible.

  • rate this

    Comment number 208.

    A balance of "productivity" and "cost effectiveness" is necessary,
    because there are a lot more services which are vital to a modern society. Police numbers are in the firing line for being too large.

    I would question the cost effectiveness of a helicopter vs the number of criminals caught and the amount of money retrieved or crimes deterred.

    We have to watch for a UK Bankruptcy "Detroit model".

  • rate this

    Comment number 207.

    As an oldie, the perception is one of desertion by the police except in serious matters, less serious crimes being ignored by the police to avoid paperwork and rejection by the CPS.
    There are a lot of police, one per 500/550 people, +PCSOs (ours is good), so what's going on?
    Is there an underground vault where they're stored, or do they all work at night?
    Finally neutralised by the left?

  • rate this

    Comment number 206.

    Too scared to walk the streets...coppers that is. the fat blue line

  • rate this

    Comment number 205.

    The usual combination, economic gloom, coupled with mysterious contentment and peace?

  • rate this

    Comment number 204.

    200. Dave, I very much doubt it was because there were 46 lawyers in the party - believe me that happens all the time and it's water off a ducks back!! It's probably more because the groom was sorry and the officers used their discretion to let him go because the offence was minor (probably some kind of low level public order offence with no actual victim) and the custody sergeant had a heart.

  • Comment number 203.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • rate this

    Comment number 202.

    The MPs draft and pass law and the judges rule on the law - but all this means nothing if the police dont do their job - - there has to be some way of getting them to understand this...

  • Comment number 201.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this

    Comment number 200.

    Not so I was in a party of 50 for a stag night the groom was arrested the party went to the police station to ask for his release and were told only his solicitor could see him. The Sergeant on discovering he had 6 barristers and 40 solicitors asking to see the prisoner unusually decided to let him go. Strange he was arrested by 3 policemen and was no trouble. one too many

  • Comment number 199.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • rate this

    Comment number 198.

    Wafer thin...


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