Climate science and acts of creation

James Hansen Prof Hansen argues climate change is "loading the dice" of extreme weather

The role of formal scientific processes in climate science appear to be under threat as never before.

Last year, physicist Prof Richard Muller and colleagues published - in the sense of posting material on their website - results from a new project analysing the Earth's temperature record.

The Berkeley Earth (BEST) project basically backed up established temperature records from Nasa and others; the world is indeed warming, and by about as much as we previously thought, it concluded.

Prof Muller was attacked in some quarters for not waiting for the formal process of peer review in a scientific journal before launching the data publicly.

He responded that his method - to put the draft out there openly and let everyone respond who wants to - is increasingly the norm in physics and indeed has always been the norm in string theory, that most arcane of disciplines.

In his view, it's the right way to do things.

A couple of weeks ago, in a New York Times article accompanying the release of five more BEST papers that are being submitted to scientific journals, Prof Muller went further, saying that the majority of 20th Century warming could be laid at the door of greenhouse gas emissions.

By contrast, analysis by established bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) holds that only after mid-Century did greenhouse gases drive the warming - prior to that, it was predominantly down to natural causes such as solar cycles and a decline in the frequency of large volcanoes.

Graph The Berkeley group confirmed existing records of global temperature

The original BEST study particularly got up the nose of meteorologist turned sceptic blogger Anthony Watts.

It dismissed the claim he'd made that US weather stations gave an unreliable temperature record because many were badly sited - in places where the extent of heat-reflecting tarmac, for example, had expanded over time.

Also a couple of weeks back, Mr Watts launched a new analysis purporting to show that BEST had it all wrong.

Weather station in Oregon Mr Watts contends that badly-sited US weather stations distort the temperature record

BEST had used an out-of-date methodology for assessing station quality, he argued; use the right one, and you find that US temperatures have risen by only half as much over the last 30 years as Prof Muller and others say it has.

This paper too has been released web-first, on the wattsupwiththat blog, with the aim of formal publication later.

The next development in a busy few days was a Washington Post article penned by Prof James Hansen, the Nasa scientist who has done perhaps more than any other academic down the years to raise the spectre of catastrophic climate change.

It referred to a scientific paper out this week in which he calculates how the incidence of extreme weather events has changed since the middle of the last century.

Using simple statistics rather than computer models, he shows that the frequency of "extreme anomalies" - for the statistically-minded, defined as more than three standard deviations from the mean - has increased 10-fold.

Without climate change, it concludes, last year's drought in Texas and Oklahoma, the 2010 Moscow heatwave, and the 2003 heatwave centred on France wouldn't have happened.

(The article's appearance induced the journal publishing the paper, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, to lift the embargo for reporters, but it doesn't appear to be on their website as yet - sometime this week, presumably.)

Prof Hansen's paper has had a mixed reaction from other researchers.

Prof Andrew Weaver from Canada's University of Victoria said it was an "excellent" piece of work that asked a better-framed question than the one other researchers have posed.

"Rather than say, 'is this because of climate change?' That's the wrong question.

A sign reads '38 degrees centigrade' 2010 brought temperatures 8C above normal to Moscow and other parts of Russia

"What you can say is, 'how likely is this to have occurred with the absence of global warming?' It's so extraordinarily unlikely that it has to be due to global warming."

Prof Myles Allen, the Oxford University climate modeller who has spent 10 years developing the science of climate attribution, said it was "broadly in line" with previous analyses, but that the interpretation "goes further than many scientists are comfortable with".

What's perhaps more remarkable about Prof Hansen's paper is the style.

Rarely if ever have I seen a published scientific paper that states the rationale for its existence so baldly in terms of public perception - specifically, "the need for the public to appreciate the significance of human-made global warming".

"Actions to stem emissions of the gases that cause global warming are unlikely to approach what is needed until the public recognises that human-made climate change is underway and perceives that it will have unacceptable consequences if effective actions are not taken to slow the climate change," the authors write.

Climate change glossary
Select a term to learn more:
Action that helps cope with the effects of climate change - for example construction of barriers to protect against rising sea levels, or conversion to crops capable of surviving high temperatures and drought.

You'd have to be from another planet not to realise that climate science has been the subject of extraordinarily intense political forces over the last few years.

And many scientists involved feel passionately about it.

At its core, though, climate science has been able to retain its identity partly because researchers generally don't give in to passion, instead sticking to formal processes - publication in peer-reviewed journals and the presentation of data and conclusions in strictly academic terms.

It's rapidly becoming more blurred. And the question arises: is this a good thing?

Prof John Christy, the University of Alabama scientist who has taken a position sceptical of "climate catastrophism" down the years while working in the mainstream discipline of compiling temperature records, believes it could be.

Two years ago, he suggested replacing the monolithic procedures of the IPCC with a "wiki" approach.

And he tells me now that he got involved with the Anthony Watts exercise partly because it "would be an interesting experiment for me in which the paper was 'cloud reviewed' and then rewritten to accommodate important new information before being submitted [to an academic journal]... I'm wondering if this is the way 'review' in the digital age will unfold as time goes on."

Man pours water on head Heatwaves in Greece and elsewhere are down to climate change, the new paper claims

Prof Christy makes the distinction - crucial to scientists - between draft papers for discussion and final, complete ones that go into academic journals and become part of the formal literature of science.

But how clear is that distinction to the public that Mr Watts, Prof Hansen and Prof Muller are trying to influence?

And if it's not clear, how does the new model benefit public understanding?

Peer review is far from perfect - especially in a politicised arena such as climate science where some journals exist with a specific, directed slant on the issue.

Energy and Environment, for example, proclaims itself "a forum for more sceptical analyses of 'climate change'".

Creationists have attempted to clothe themselves in scientific garb down the years by establishing publications designed to look and feel like scientific journals.

The Journal of Creation, for example, says it is a peer-reviewed journal but clearly comes with a specific aim - to combat the problem that "creationists cannot publish their creationist ideas in secular journals because the evolutionary worldview has a stranglehold on scientific publishing".

Well, clearly the "evolutionary worldview" ought to dominate scientific journals - because a vast amount of evidence testifies to the fact it's real.

But you can create a parallel world where it isn't, if you really try.

With all its flaws, publication in mainstream peer-reviewed journals is the best mechanism science has yet devised for ensuring that the findings and conclusions reaching the public ear remain above a certain quality threshold.

String theorists can perhaps afford to take a different tack, because - with all due respect - it doesn't make any practical difference to anyone in the wider world who's right and who's wrong in that particular discipline.

But with climate science, it does. It matters a lot.

Is it really time to throw the traditions away? And if it is, whose interests would that serve?

Richard Black Article written by Richard Black Richard Black Former environment correspondent

Farewell and thanks for reading

This is my last entry for this page - I'm leaving the BBC to work, initially, on ocean conservation issues.

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  • rate this

    Comment number 27.

    Soon we can move to Mars. It is cold and dry there and mercifully no Olympics---yet !

  • rate this

    Comment number 26.

    Oh yay, another article full of barely literate plebeians with the science skill level of a primary school student declaring that climate change is, indeed, not real because they read in their tabloid paper that it was a conspiracy.

  • rate this

    Comment number 25.

    Coming from a physicist trained in climate science, I can't honestly see anything a layperson could contribute to current analysis within this field through any sort of cloud review that could not already be addressed through current peer review methods by trained professionals. More funding and government backing is required to address these problems via successful quality-controlled methods.

  • rate this

    Comment number 24.

    My objection to cloud reviews would be the Science and knowledge is not simply a democratic process. If everyone in the world "voted" that the world was flat would that make it so?

    Cloud reviews would simply become variants of internet forums, where those who should loudest and longest would dominate.

    So creationists and religious fundamentalists would dominate and so approve their own drivel

  • Comment number 23.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • rate this

    Comment number 22.

    I get it!

    Cloud review - climate change.

    It's a pun isn't it?

  • rate this

    Comment number 21.

    Has Hansen forgotten South America and Australia exist, or was their data an inconvenient truth too far for him!
    A new low in so called climate science, hopefully the paper will be withdrawn when the real staticians get a look at it. It is enough to make one wonder if this was another case of Pal review rather than Peer review

  • rate this

    Comment number 20.

    Who benefits ? Always a good question to ask.

    Clearly there are powerful vested interests in the climate change industry and (mostly left wing ) politics. I wonder who many people earn their livings as researchers, journalists, campaign group members or government advisers on this issue who would be out of work if they didn't keep pushing wilder and wilder alarmism ?

  • rate this

    Comment number 19.

    It seems rather odd that only when "scientists" release data Supporting the IPCC Stance, does it get hailed in the way this latest BBC sponsored offering has.
    Alternatives suggesting another point of view are routinely rubbished and labelled "deniers" by the "establishment".
    How would global warming be a bad thing. OAPs cannot pay for heating bills now, lower heating costs would be welcomed!

  • rate this

    Comment number 18.

    Water vapour is a greenhouse gas which is unevenly distributed across the planet.
    Global warming is being caused by the redistribution of this vapour by an erratic jet stream.
    Please send my cloud reviewed Nobel Prize to the BBC and I will pick it up on the way home from the pub.

  • rate this

    Comment number 17.

    I welcome an escape from the current system which works well enough in some fields but also seems to act as a bottle neck in getting data more widely known. Not to mention the cost of subscribing to Journals.

    It is an interesting point though, for most science there is no powerful vested interest that seeks to deny or bury data but climate is such a 1 & perhaps needs some level of protection.

  • rate this

    Comment number 16.

    The problem with cloud review is that is can be subtly influenced by the phraseology of the allegedy impartial reviewer.

    " up the nose of meteorologist turned sceptic blogger Anthony Watts."
    " ....purporting to show that BEST had it all wrong."

  • rate this

    Comment number 15.

    All possible symptoms but it does not alter the fact that there is not a shred of evidence to link human behaviour to climate change.
    Fortunately, that does not matter because the measures advocated to combat global warming are similar to those required to conserve finite natural resources. But let us ditch the climate change religious fervour and concentrate upon science please.

  • rate this

    Comment number 14.

    Why do these scientists seem to only cite examples of warmer temperatures when last winter had such low temperatures and heavy snowfall in many parts of Europe and also in the US (Alaska)?

    There is a blatant bias in the reports of these scientists. They also dismiss the possible benefits of a warmer climate. Global temperatures were much higher during the Jurassic period, and life flourished.

  • rate this

    Comment number 13.

    The problem with cloud review is while everybodies voice should be heard not everybodies opinion should be listened to. You dont go to your next door neighbour for medical advice.

    Either way cloud review (probably in some form we cannot forsee) seems on its way no matter what.

  • rate this

    Comment number 12.

    Oh be sensible DrKnow.

  • rate this

    Comment number 11.

    Dear Richard Black - would you give us, your readers, YOUR scientific credentials please ???

  • rate this

    Comment number 10.

    Sorry Dave but global warming is a fact and can be attributed to past mass extinction events.
    Flood basalt events are believed to be a cause for the extinctions at the end of the Cretaceous, Permian and Triassic periods. These events filled the atmosphere with CO2 just like man is just now. Whither or not it will have a similar effect is the debatable part. Not whither it exists at all.

  • rate this

    Comment number 9.

    Odd how Muller's BEST graph gets coverage but none of Watt's. I'm sure this is just an oversight and not bias by Richard...

  • rate this

    Comment number 8.

    I hope you're not actually in charge of anything!
    Whether it's man made or not there is no denying the planet is warming.


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