Help to Buy irrelevant to London bubble

 
Houses in London

So in case anyone thinks that the bubble in the London housing market has been caused by the government's second Help to Buy scheme, today's stats show that is an absurd notion.

The important questions about Help to Buy are different ones:

  • has it been helpful in providing affordable mortgages to first-time buyers?
  • has it been useful in reviving the housing market outside London?
  • is it in fact a waste of effort and money, because the housing market was in the process of rebounding anyway?
  • is it appropriate for the taxpayer to subsidise mortgages?

The killer stat, when it comes to London, is that just 0.6% of all housing transactions funded by mortgages involved a Help to Buy government guarantee. The proportion would be even lower, if the large number of cash purchases in London were included.

And in the most red-hot part of London's housing market, Brent - where prices have been rising at annual rate of about a third - there has been just one Help to Buy mortgage.

In the land of the super-rich, Kensington and Chelsea, there have been two Help to Buy mortgages.

London prices, rising at an annual rate of 17%, are being driven by cash purchases being made by foreign investors, by a local economy that is reviving much faster than anywhere else in the UK, by buy-to-let purchases and by old-fashioned speculative fever and fervour.

Huw van Steenis of Morgan Stanley estimates that buy-to-let mortgages in London had more than 10 times the impact of Help to Buy in the first three months of the year.

In London, Help to Buy is a near irrelevance.

Help to Buy sign

So if the London bubble poses the greatest current threat to financial and economic stability, as the governor of the Bank of England recently opined, abolishing it or modifying it would make damn all difference.

Which poses something of a problem for the Bank's Financial Policy Committee (FPC), since at the top of its agenda for next month's meeting is what to do about that localised overheating.

It would be slightly odd, given the data, if the FPC put pressure on the government to scale back or abolish Help to Buy.

Apart from anything else, Help to Buy is being used at the bottom end of the market, not the frothier top end: at the end of March the price of houses bought or remortgaged through the scheme was just 60% of the average UK house price.

Or to put it another way, Help to Buy appears to be helping first-time buyers - who represent 80% of all Help to Buy deals - and those on lower incomes.

More interesting is not whether Help to Buy is some lethal danger to the sustainable revival of the UK economy - it is whether there was any need for it.

There the answer is nuanced.

Some 95% of housing completions funded by Help to Buy were outside London, including 14% in the South East, 14% in the North West and 9% in Yorkshire and Humber.

What is striking is that in the more depressed regions of the North East, Northern Ireland and and Wales there were relatively few Help to Buy mortgages deals: collectively those areas represent just 10% of all such subsidised transactions.

So here is one important uncertainty: is Help to Buy stimulating demand or responding to demand?

If you look at the regional pattern of take-up, Help to Buy seems to be used after local people start to feel more confident, rather than causing them to feel more confident.

And, for the avoidance of doubt, the revival in the UK housing market was under way for the best part of a year before Help to Buy was launched.

All of which broadly means that Help to Buy should probably not be seen through the prism of financial stability or economic policy, but as social policy.

What matters about Help to Buy is whether, in a UK suffering from a chronic shortage of residential accommodation that causes housing to be pricey, it is appropriate for the government to provide subsidised mortgages to those on lower incomes.

Which is more about politics than economics, about whether that's the best and fairest use of public money.

 
Robert Peston Article written by Robert Peston Robert Peston Economics editor

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  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 257.

    And this could all be solved by speading jobs around the country.

    Aside from those servicing public interactions, why are there any civil servants in london aside from a small secretariat for government?

    Likewise, why is government funding of science being concentrated away from previous centres of excellence.

    And finally, fund public transport in the regions as well as you do in the SE!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 256.

    251.jacroberts

    You neglect the long term consequences of using fake money to buy assets. The loans have to repaid as does the interest. In consequences if an employer wants local staff it has to pay sufficient to meet their housing needs. This reduces the comparativeness of employers for many decades.

    Printing money as loans is an economic disaster. Even the BoE knows this.

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 255.

    254. afa

    The housing bubble needs both Capital Gains Tax on ALL property sales AND a substantial rise in interest rates OR, if this does not happen, the inevitable result can only be a drastic economic collapse and/or a collapse in Sterling.

    May be we need an annual wealth tax too. No economy can possibly continue to thrive with fake dodgy money - there is only economic strangulation remaining.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 254.

    JfH@248
    "London needs
    (not just RATES up)
    Capital Gains tax
    on bubble profits"

    Beginnings of a list, of infinite factors, directing thought back to the one answer, the CORRECT, our liberation as equal partners, in conscience. All agreed, no need for upsets: guaranteed equal incomes will cover rent of existing 'owned' (castle little dearer than cave), owners made managers to prove worth or let go.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 253.

    RP has just added a piece on HTB in wales, where there are apparently two schemes - one run by the Welsh administration. Reminds me of SKDC's scheme: I asked whether councillors would accept liability for losses incurred (as otherwise I would be paying). they assured me they were confident that wouldn't be any losses - not that they would accept any risk!

 

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