The Yellen era

 
Janet Yellen

As the first woman in charge at the Federal Reserve, the Janet Yellen era will look radically different. But, glimpsing beneath the surface, the Yellen era won't be too dissimilar to her predecessor at least initially, Chairman Ben Bernanke, who steps down on Friday.

Yellen was his deputy after all. And she is importantly one of the architects of the new "forward guidance" policy.

Bernanke may have launched and set the pace for the "tapering" of cash injections by cutting it back before the end of his term. But it will be forward guidance that determines whether the Fed will have been successful in supporting the US economy back to health.

Taper means the end of stimulus (the Fed will cease injecting cash into the economy in due course) but it's not the tightening of monetary policy.

In other words, the Fed isn't withdrawing its support of the economy since it has pledged to keep rates low until the recovery takes hold. But that pledge of support depends on maintaining a separation of sorts between the end of cheap cash injections and the Fed's base rate set at zero to 0.25%, which I have written about before.

To convince markets of it - after all, they're the ones that set our borrowing costs, Yellen and other central bankers use unemployment as the main indicator of a threshold in their forward guidance policy, which is relatively easy to follow and not subject to a lot of revision.

Of course, it's a proxy that fits the Fed's dual mandate to target price stability as well as unemployment.

Risk of derailing recovery

So, despite unemployment being a lagging indicator - it tells you what happened in the economy several months ago that caused firms to hire and fire - it gives a sense as to where the Fed is trying to get the economy to before it considers raising rates.

Once unemployment hits 6.5%, which is still considerably above the 5% that was the long-term figure before the financial crisis, then rates and monetary policy could begin to normalise.

The challenge for Yellen is to make this policy credible. Borrowing costs as seen in the yield on 10-year Treasuries is now closer to 3% versus less than 2% a year ago, which is still historically low. Markets will price inflation into a recovery, so it isn't too surprising. But if rates go up too quickly, then the fragile recovery could be derailed.

Inflation-targeting was a policy that seemed for a long while to manage inflation expectations in the medium term. The Fed could then ride out short-term fluctuations so long as markets believed that the central bank would manage prices over a two-year horizon.

Well, prices weren't much of an issue with the deflationary pressures after a debt crisis in the US. But there were some well-noted problems in the UK when inflation stayed above target for pretty much the past five years despite the housing bust.

Eye across the pond

In terms of forward guidance, the Fed will hope for the same credibility. And this is the challenge for Yellen.

To help manage expectations, the Fed also started to publish individual forecasts of members of the FOMC. There are published dates as to when Fed governors expect the first rate rises. These currently suggest low rates throughout next year.

No other central bank has done forward guidance so far except the Bank of England. But the BoE adopted forward guidance without the accompanying rate projections and a higher unemployment trigger of 7%.

Since UK unemployment has dropped unexpectedly soon to 7.1%, the BoE is trying to counter expectations of rate rises.

For the Yellen era, what happens across the pond could be worth watching at the start of her term. The US unemployment rate is now also rather close to the 6.5% threshold set by the Fed, coming in at 6.7% in December.

During Yellen's tenure, if she can manage to keep borrowing costs low for households and businesses until the recovery takes hold, then that will mark a key success.

Rates stayed low for about two decades after the last systemic financial crash and the Great Depression. As Yellen is taking the helm five years into this financial crisis, it may be some time yet before a judgement can be made on her chairwomanship.

 
Linda Yueh Article written by Linda Yueh Linda Yueh Chief business correspondent

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  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 43.

    42 Markets have reacted to the beginning of the end of Fed stimulation by QE quickly. The impact is being felt hardest and fastest on export driven emerging economies including China. Look at what has happened to stock markets in just the last few days. Is this the end of their bubble, their ecstatic moment? Long term projections based on temporary performance of the recent past is a fool's game.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 42.

    34.SJH

    "The USA may be tapering...

    2. Even if they do not how many years will it take to actually unwind!"

    I did some back of the envelope estimates in #1

    Please improve on them

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 41.

    #40 Robotics is obsoleting labor be it cheap or otherwise.

    If lack of regulation and corruption are beneficial expect Washington and Wall Street to continue to boom - although the latter may face stiff competition from the City of London

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 40.

    Technology is changing the very nature of manufacturing, one of the developing world's strong suits due to cheap labor, no regulations, and thoroughly corrupt. Robotics is obsoleting cheap labor.The US could see a rebirth in this new era. US manufacturing standards are the world's toughest in most ways. What's left is raw materials (mining and drilling) and agriculture.US does very well there too.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 39.

    Unemployment may have been a lagging indicator of activity in the last long economic cycle, but that doesn't mean it will be in the new cycle now starting. Tech change may have shortened or even eliminated the lag: right now the past is not much of a guide to the future.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 38.

    Europe is socially explosive with many hidden mines like Cyprus was. Africa has attraction but security is a problem.Mideast, India, and Russia, faggedabout it.China and Japan depend on exports in decline.South America flirting with socialism due to revolt against poverty and social inequality.Most others have one defect or another. What does that leave?The USA. MONEY....come home to papa.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 37.

    The US economy is growing at 3.2% and seems to be picking up steam. My phone is starting to ring with job offer inquiries, e mail too. As money floods back to the US so will jobs and prosperity. Is the era of emerging markets coming to an end? Much social unrest in places like Turkey and Brazil lauded only recently as great places to invest. The US remains the safe haven of wealth.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 36.

    Fed can only affect short term interest rates.Trying to affect long term rates has been described as pushing on a string.Steering the US economy is like piloting a huge ship.You turn the wheel and nothing seems to happen right away, the effect takes a long time, as much as 18 months.The Fed fears oversteer as well as understeer resulting in caution.Foreign markets however are responding quickly

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 35.

    33.BluesBerry

    Recently Nigerian CB reduced its dollar reserves & increased its holdings of Chinese yuan. Zimbabwe switched to Chinese yuan.

    --------------

    The words "fire", "frying pan", "out of" and "in to" spring to mind.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 34.

    The USA may be tapering now but two points arise:

    1. They could still untaper at any time
    2. Even if they do not how many years will it take to actually unwind i

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 33.

    Russian Duma is discussing elimination US dollar. Recently Nigerian CB reduced its dollar reserves & increased its holdings of Chinese yuan. Zimbabwe switched to Chinese yuan. Former chief economist WB has called for terminating US dollar as world reserve currency, saying: “Dominance of greenback is root cause of global financial/economic crises.”
    Good luck, Yellen!

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 32.

    Here is the single most important word you need to know about this lady (the same word is also applicable to our own Mr Carney)....

    Unelected.

    And as it's Friday, here's a bonus word worth knowing....

    Unaccountable.

    I couldn't think of a third word, at least not one which wouldn't get me moderated.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 31.

    The Americans are doing fine, all they have to do is run up a large debt
    and expect the world to pay it off just like they did with sub-prime mortgages. The Americans then got "free" houses and we payed for it leaving more Brits homeless. Q E is a con all the world knows that.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 30.

    Into the toilet:
    Some currency experts assert no other currency can replace US toilet paper as global reserve currency because no other country has a bond market like the US bond market. What imbecility!
    A country not in debt needs no bonds.
    Thus, I come to believe the world is moving towards: removal of US toilet paper money as reserve currency?
    Good luck, Yellen!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 29.

    A better article on the topic
    http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/01/30/a-central-bankers-license-to-lie/
    also what does forward guidance matter when the figures are so totally distorted?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 28.

    Taper has been introduced before Ben leaves so as when it fails Yellen will not lose all credibility.
    As to the success of Fed policies.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-30/bernankes-success-summed-one-chart
    An alternative view on policies
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-09/peter-schiff-warns-yellens-nomination-means-any-qe-taper-expectations-are-delusional
    back to Connalys$ view.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 27.

    So the policy now is forward guidance.

    What happened to all that passion about letting the markets decide? No doubt lost somewhere among the detritus of a bygone age when buccaneers roamed the open seas.

    If ever there was a statement as to utter failure of modern capitalism; this is it. The free-market bankers have sold their souls for a mess of pottage paid and supplied for by the taxpayer

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 26.

    Interest rates are too low for too long. QE and zero interest rate policy has failed miserably to reduce joblessness and deal effectively with "Creeping Inflation". Deflation is a bogeyman used by Janet Yellen, Paul Krueger and others to justify unlimited cheap money for big banks and Wall Street tycoons. The US needs tight monetary policy to combat high costs in education, health care,housing..

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 25.

    Problem:
    'The Federal Reserve System Is A Privately Owned Banking Cartel'
    The Federal Reserve is not a government agency.
    The truth is that it is a privately owned central bank. It is owned by the banks that are members of the Federal Reserve system. We do not know how much of the system each bank owns, because that has never been disclosed to the American people.
    Fix this first!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 24.

    22. alan

    'The so-called cure would kill'

    You cant kill a zombie, dead already, so are you dealing with a zombie

    BTW London property - supposedly an indicator of things on the up here
    http://www.businessinsider.com/swaths-of-london-are-turning-into-ghost-towns-2014-1

    How healthy is the US real estate market really

 

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