Re-balancing and the re-industrialisation of Britain

 
A black cab being produced

The UK wants to re-balance its economy towards making things and selling more of its wares overseas.

As I travel around Beijing to cover the end (or at least the thawing) of the 14-month deep freeze marked by the visit of British Chancellor George Osborne, the Mayor of London Boris Johnson, and a number of high-level figures, I started to think about how both countries want to re-balance their economies but in different ways. It's certainly the term du jour.

For the UK, the government wants to re-balance the economy towards manufacturing and exporting more overseas, while relying less on, say, financial services given the banking bust of a few years ago. Manufacturing only accounts for around 11% of total valued added of what's produced in Britain, while the service sector accounts for over three-quarters of the economy.

For China, it's the opposite. It wants to re-balance its economy away from too much investment and towards developing a more diversified service sector to provide for its burgeoning middle class. China is worried about its high levels of capital spending, which has produced so-called ghost cities, and wants its companies to invest overseas instead — some of which will be going to Britain as announcements about Manchester Airport and other deals are expected this week.

In theory, these countries are largely complementary in what they want.

Trade deficit

Britain, which until recently exported more to Ireland than to the BRICs combined (Brazil, Russia, India, China), wants to re-orient more towards emerging economies and help its companies access the fastest growing markets in the world.

It begs the question: is the UK peddling the right stuff abroad?

Britain has run a trade deficit that widened precipitously last year when it hit a record high of £59.2 billion.

The hope was that with sterling having lost about a quarter of its value since the crash 5 years ago, it would have boosted exports in the same way that it did during the 1990s when the pound left the ERM (exchange rate mechanism) that had tied it to the Deutsche Mark. The last time that Britain had a trade surplus was towards the end of that decade in 1997 on the back of a depreciated pound.

Before then, Britain ran a current account deficit every year since 1984.

Notably, the deficit in goods trade grew since the late 1990s with further de-industrialisation of the economy. Manufacturing declined from contributing a quarter of GDP in 1980, to 20% during the 1990s and then fell sharply to 12% during the 2000s. Manufacturing still makes up about 20% of the German economy on the same value-added basis.

Exporting services

But, offsetting the overall trade gap is the export of services, which has been in surplus since 1966. And, it's a large surplus, typically around 5% of GDP.

Britain is particularly good at these activities and ranks only behind the US in terms of total exports globally. And it's not just financial services - but a range of business services including legal, accountancy, architecture, design, management consultancy, software, and advertising.

Furthermore, the trade in services tends to be relatively high valued-added. As global competitiveness is derived from quality rather than cost-competitiveness, margins tend to be higher. Because UK exports are increasingly represented by higher-end manufacturers and services, it might explain why the recent depreciation of sterling has failed to boost trade by as much as was hoped for. Price still matters, but perhaps not as much as it used to.

So, if the UK can get China to open up more of its services including in financial, professional and creative areas, then British companies are well positioned to serve the under-developed services sector in China.

Chinese students lining up to receive degree certificates British universities are expanding in China

One of Britain's problems is that the global trade in services, which it is particularly good at, has not opened up in the same way the trade in manufacturers has. Since World War II, the global trade in manufacturing goods has boomed as multilateral organisations such as GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) and then the WTO (World Trade Organisation) have brought down tariffs and removed restrictive practices. The global trade in services though has not been liberalised to the same extent and this hurts Britain.

Playing your cards right

Where the trade in services has opened up, Britain tends to do well. Higher education is a good example of a UK service industry that is already successfully serving the Chinese market.

This is not just seen in growing numbers of Chinese students studying at British universities, but also through UK universities expanding into China and elsewhere through overseas campuses and partnerships with foreign universities.

It's why re-balancing the economy and re-industrialisation are easier said than done.

It's of course a long-term task and depends on a number of factors, and not just trade. There are some recent positive signs, such as an influential survey of purchasing managers, known as the PMI, finding that manufacturing output recently rose at the fastest pace in nearly two decades, since 1994.

But, in this respect, trade with China may not help.

Just this year, China overtook the US as the world's largest trading nation and the biggest manufacturer.

Trading more with China will mean that Britain must continue to upgrade and produce goods at the higher end of the technology spectrum as its companies won't be able to, nor would they necessarily want to, compete on cost.

More competitive pressure does help to fuel innovation, and there are world-beating British companies producing at the innovative end of the manufacturing spectrum already. Still, it means that Britain will continue to import substantial amounts of manufactured goods, especially lower cost ones from China.

Tellingly, UK goods exports to China may have doubled since 2009, but the trade gaps with China (along with Germany and the Netherlands) are the biggest contributors to the British trade deficit.

Britain could, and should, benefit from the further opening of China if it plays its cards right. But, trading with the world's largest manufacturing power is unlikely to reverse the de-industrialisation of Britain.

 
Linda Yueh Article written by Linda Yueh Linda Yueh Chief business correspondent

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  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 833.

    Surely it must be cheaper to manufacture goods here rather than pay wholesale + shipping from abroad?

    Even just building the parts that make goods.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 832.

    Re 821: That wasn't Holmes, it was Spock!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 831.

    @830 Yes, good to exchange facts rather than prejudices. I don't know what the average employment length is but it hasn't changed much in the last ten years: about half of people in work have been in that job for more than five years, about a third for more than ten. Don't know about jobs, but over 40% of incomes exceed £30k (rather more than in 1988, adjusting for prices, when it was a third).

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 830.

    828 Grounder
    Enjoyed discussion!
    Minor point,but what is average employment length?
    What % of jobs pay in excess of £30k
    Got to sign off now.
    Basically in many areas of life we are or will follow the US.
    Must admit not so many food banks needed in 1988 and many more libraries open with qualified and paid staff,in addition the bar has risen so high to qualify for help in many areas compared 1988

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 829.

    It's a vicious circle in many ways, a strong industrial structure requires good, efficient logistics, and our logistics infrastructure, such as rail and roads is not up to the job.

    The Government thinks something like HS2 will improve matters, but focusing on one thing will achieve little, we need a country-wide policy not an area-specific one, with resources moving in all directions.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 828.

    @826 gerald
    As it happens, the house I bought in 1988 is now on the market for 2.5 time what I paid, while incomes have nearly trebled. Mortgage rates are lower now, of course, but rents are higher. House prices were then at a peak and fell back by about a quarter. Perhaps the same will happen again.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 827.

    @821 Even if true, no good will come... Manufacturing 10th or 11th, I said. Other more populous nations have moved ahead while the UK has remained fairly static since the eighties (halving as a percentage of GDP while that more than doubled). Over that period, our 1% of the world has drifted from the fourth largest economy to the seventh, which I call a modest and overdue rebalancing.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 826.

    823 Grounder
    NEWSFLASH!!
    You can do both!!!
    Turn information into knowledge and act using wisdom
    Positive or negative do not separately or together have to effect a new or changed situation or opportunity.
    Positive as stated can also be a negative when it's based on sand!
    Try prices of housing,a persons biggest cost,ie % spent today of income on a mortgage or rent and compare 1988-2012

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 825.

    Grounder @823
    "incomes… increased"
    Appreciated. your hopefulness

    Whatever our fate, interesting challenges to meet

    The negatives remain dire, not just in perception

    Technology and production will need context

    Whatever the challenges, best met together

    Humanity does have formidable strengths

    As well as terrible 'inherited' weaknesses

    Goodnight!

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 824.

    Theres little comparison between China and UK-health/safety,pensions,high wages,high overheads,UK red tape overlapping EU red tape,in fact its a wonder we have any manufacturing base at all given our poor competitiveness.UK costs must fall or China's increase.Re-industrialising of course means more union problems,which partly crippled the UK in the first place

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 823.

    @817 All

    I understand why people don't feel positive. Often it's with good reason, sometimes it's a lack of perspective, but rarely does it help with concrete steps to improve matters.

    @817 What I see is that incomes for every decile increased by more than prices from 1988 to 2012, each of the bottom 3 by over 50% more, and the top decile least of all.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 822.

    Grounder@819
    "containers"
    Returning empty, or via?
    You make good points, opportunities for production & trade, material & 'cultural', even educational

    But good points also from Gerald, many chances to 'turn the corner' mishandled or missed, after World Wars, with Gorbachev & Mandela & the Arab Spring

    The answers to be informed by the quantifiable, but also by care, expressed in equal partnership

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 821.

    816 Grounder
    "no good will come from believing that".
    As Sherlock Holmes said "once you have eliminated the impossible then whatever remains,however improbable,must be the truth"!
    Did you read where we are on the OECD education major study last week? 16/24 year olds?
    Manufacturing 7th or 8th?
    Where were we 20/30/50 years ago?
    What is the pattern and it's growth and direction?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 820.

    Rebalancing - I picture a circus act, a distractingly clad woman trying to stay on top of a giant ball. Her feet move rapidly, then slowly, only just in control, sometimes elegant, sometimes not. Some nights she may make to the end of the act without falling off, other nights not. All the time balancing and rebalancing. And a substantial percentage of the audience thinks it could do better.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 819.

    @815 gerald

    One's hopes and fears should be based on facts not delusions, I agree. That is why I stress that Britain is the 10th or 11th largest manufacturer in the world. That's a pretty solid foundation from which to improve when you have the world's 7th or 8th largest economy as your domestic market and ready access to world trade routes. All those containers also have to leave the country!

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 818.

    811 Grounder
    You are aware of the shape of the jobs and income Pyramid of old?
    The base is now much wider,the middle much thinner and the top an ever growing bubble!
    "small differences"?
    "equal society"?
    "converged"?
    Try education,wages,housing,% of income needed for utilities,transport,food,etc hope this helps!
    Also we wont have" increasing numbers of affluent people"check pensions % final salary

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 817.

    Grounder@811
    "hard to remain positive"

    Critique of "negativity", for the situation, or for comment on the situation?

    Should we ignore material conflict of interest, the Boer War past, the sun in 1913 shining as bright as ever, science on the move, "mostly a more equal society than decades ago", half of society Gove-below-average, even the best Gove-blinkered, micro-policy-moves from focus groups

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 816.

    @810 gerald

    Well, I could be wrong, but no good will come from believing that! The UK has a huge economy, so there are plenty of opportunities. There are growing numbers of affluent foreigners who might also be drawn to what's good enough for us. And we have increasing numbers of increasingly affluent retired people who can afford higher quality goods and services that meet their demands.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 815.

    811 Grounder
    "negativity"?,facts do get a bad and unfair press I think!
    I have found in life quite often when accused of being negative or pessimistic my views,opinions,and assessments come true,surely that implies many are simply frequenting a dream land built on a false premise to be positive,when in fact it's a self imposed delusion.
    Surely you should simply be objective and act accordingly?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 814.

    Turn off your fans.

 

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