The ECB and the riddle of the markets

 

Probably the biggest surprise of 2013 so far has been the dogged optimism of the financial markets. When the economic news is good, share prices rise. But when the news is bad, they often seem to go up as well.

It's a puzzle for economists everywhere, and there's no better example than this week's hotly anticipated European Central Bank meeting.

"Everyone is so excited about whether the ECB will cut rates," Michala Marcussen, head of global economics for Societe Generale, told me. "You have to wonder why - when everyone also seems to agree that a rate cut will not do much to help the real economy."

The answer to the riddle is that it might not help the real economy, but it's a fair bet that it will help equities. In fact, that is probably why the markets have been rising on bad economic news - because, other things equal, bad news suggests that central banks will keep the markets bathed in super-cheap liquidity for that much longer.

But, you might well ask, doesn't the real economy eventually have to start to reward all that market optimism? Don't European companies eventually have to start delivering the revenue and earnings growth built into all those rising share prices?

That is the big question hanging over the ECB meeting today and over all European policymakers, waiting for any sign that the depressed eurozone economies are on the mend.

Politicians and officials have generally been happy to have the market run ahead of the real economy in the past six months, because they felt that the more positive mood would turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy. Higher confidence would beget lower borrowing costs, which would beget rising lending to companies, which would finally lead to some growth.

Has that happened? Well, the first part of the chain has. Borrowing costs in the distressed economies have fallen for firms and governments.

But not nearly as much as the markets have risen. And that improvement in credit conditions has yet to offset the deflationary impact of continued fiscal austerity, which - if anything - will be greater in 2013 than it was in 2012 in countries such as Spain and Portugal.

Last week, the average unemployment rate for the eurozone as a whole hit 12.1%. It's less than half that figure in Germany - just 5.4%. While in Spain, the rate of joblessness is now pushing 27% - with youth unemployment much higher than that.

Mario Draghi has again made clear in recent speeches that fixing the structural economic problems of Spain and the rest cannot be the job of the ECB. But he has also said the ECB will continue to fight the balkanisation of European finance.

charts

These charts from a recent speech by ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio show that, although borrowing costs have fallen in much of the periphery when it comes to households and companies, there's still a wide gap between German interest rates and rates at the periphery.

In the jargon, the "transmission mechanism" for the ECB's monetary policy is still impaired, and credit is still crunched in the countries that need it most. All of which may help to explain why market expectations surrounding this ECB meeting have been so high - and expectations among economists are so low.

 
Stephanie Flanders Article written by Stephanie Flanders Stephanie Flanders Former economics editor

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  • rate this
    -3

    Comment number 48.

    46.Private capital is as usual the cause.

    it must be taken into public ownership.

    PS If Clegg plans to be in govt no matter what, which coalition does he think best?

    if Labour, why doesn't he form it? If the Tories or if it makes no difference whatever is the point of democracy at all?

    Why does Cable seek to regulate private capital when he should be taking it into public ownership & control?

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 29.

    Free Money = No NEW Jobs!

    Free Money = AUTOMATION, but no new (very expensive) workers.

    ALSO

    What is the point of making money (which is the purpose of doing business) if the result is worthless (i.e. FREE MONEY!)

    The idiotic economists just don't get it at all. This is why we have had 5 years of no growth/depression. How many more decades before these idiot economists get it!?

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 19.

    10.fTP
    "Tax regimes are still very benign for high earners/gainers"

    And who are you trying to kid? Although I'd love to knwo how this is related to the dsicussion anyway?
    ~
    50% > 45%
    Constant talk of CGT cut [can't all be for Buy to Let! ;-)]
    Both help shares & bonds.

    If we had 50, 60 (& 65?) % rate bands (& probably CGT matching) needed for recovery, mkt indices would prob be lot lower

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 9.

    SF: 'It's a puzzle for economists everywhere'
    ~ ~ ~
    Not this one, Steffie, (although I hesitate to call myself an economist) because:
    Markets are being supported by near zero interest rates
    Tax regimes are still very benign for high earners/gainers, and
    Markets tend to discount known bad news in advance

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 32.

    31+

    The ONLY result of lowering interest rates can be to inflate asset prices which in turn makes the UK (and anywhere else!) less and less competitive.

    Below about 2.5% lowering interest rates is counter productive - can't you grasp this treacle_01! Are you completely blind to all economic history, past and the last 5 years!

    You bankers are completely beyond the pale!

 

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