Can Germany afford eurozone collapse?

 
Container ship being loaded at a terminal in the harbour of Hamburg

As negotiations on changing the terms of the Greek rescue limp on, there remains a widespread presumption that Germany - the eurozone's paymaster - would always have too much to lose from the collapse of the currency union to allow it to collapse.

Analysis of trade patterns sent to me by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs suggests that may be a slightly naive assumption. What his numbers show is that British exporters would probably be more damaged by a eurozone implosion than German ones: or to put it another way, businesses in the UK - which, to state the stunningly obvious, is not a member of the euro area - are more dependent on the health of the eurozone than German companies.

And - which is the more important trend - German businesses are becoming less and less reliant on selling to eurozone countries and are becoming more and more successful in selling to China and the leading emerging markets.

Here are the relevant stats. In 2000, roughly at the dawn of the eurozone, trade with the euro area represented 45.5% of all Germany's trade. That fell to 38.1% this year - and, according to Goldman's projections, will be under 34% in 2020.

By contrast trade with Mr O'Neill's BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) was 3.9% of German trade in 2000, is just under 12% this year and is forecast to be more than 24% in 2020.

What is particularly striking is that in eight years German trade with China alone is projected to be 15.6% of the total, according to the trends, or not far off double the share represented by Germany's most important eurozone trading partner, France.

This leads Mr O'Neill to the following conclusion:

"If European policymakers cannot get their act together in the year ahead or the year after the German election [in 2013], I think the probability that it [the eurozone] survives might be less than I had previously thought."

Or to put it another way, by 2015 it will be so obvious to the German people that it is business with China that is making them richer that their incentive to show fiscal solidarity with Spain and Italy - to use German wealth to underpin the recovery of weaker eurozone economies - will be even less than it is today (for what it's worth, Goldman believes Germany's trade with Spain will be less than a tenth of its trade with China by 2020).

And what does all this betoken for the UK?

Well it rather implies that British businesses' efforts to reduce their dependence on European markets and increase their sales to emerging economies need to be significantly stepped up.

Right now, some 44.5% of British trade is with the euro area: our dependence on the prosperity of the eurozone is significantly greater than Germany's (which is why I have been banging on for years that although we may be powerless to do much to prevent the eurozone lurching from crisis to crisis, we have a great deal to lose if the lands across the Channel go splat, in an economic sense).

The better news is that our trade with China has been growing: we generated current account credits of £2.7bn in 2002, but that had risen to £13.8bn in 2011, a rise of 411%.

The rise in our sales to China were faster than our sales rise to any other major trading partner. But even so the increase was probably not fast enough.

Trade with China represents 3.5% of the British trade total, or a quarter of the business we do with the US and a third of the business we do with Germany.

Our trade with each of the Netherlands, France, the Irish Republic and Belgium is significantly greater than our trade with China.

British businesses are very dependent on selling to rich but relatively low-growth economies. They are particularly dependent on selling to economies - that like the UK itself - became far too indebted during the boom years (and to labour the point, I am talking here about the aggregate of household, corporate, banking and government debt, not government debt alone).

So it should be no surprise that the UK is struggling to grow at more than a desperately anaemic rate: the scale of the required re-engineering for the British economy will be the work of many years.

Not only does the UK need to become less reliant on debt-fuelled consumer spending, and become more of an investment-led and exporting economy, but it also needs to re-orient its trade away from economies as hobbled as Britain itself.

 
Robert Peston Article written by Robert Peston Robert Peston Economics editor

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  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 277.

    275
    The ? is, overall, whether succesive govt's are correct ie is to assume that private enterprise, mainly foreign investors will invest in Britain & do all the things on everyone's wish list or whether the govt needs to be more radical & lead & intervene & take controlling interests & pick winners so that we all become winners - I don't believe the market will, itself, do all of this for 62m?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 276.

    @275 At least the UK had old worn-out machinery in 1945- most countries on the continent didn't even have that. Furthermore, the UK also received Marshall aid just as other countries did. One would be tempted to conclude that perhaps the UK didn't use Marshall aid as efficiently as Germany did, but that would probably be an oversimplification. Point is, UK had a headstart.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 275.

    @263 Have a Norton F1 JPS and that highlights some of the issues as opposssed to John Bloor's Triumphs.

    also germany hit a rest button with the marshall aid could almost start building from scratch etc

    we had to export or die carrying on with the some old worn out machinary etc

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 274.

    @263 Also worth reading, though of a more general nature, is "The Decline of Industrial Britain 1870-1970" by Michael Dintenfass. There are undoubtedly many other publications that deal with different segments of UK industry decline, eg shipbuilding.
    Rather ironic when one realizes that the UK had a headstart in 1945 with an almost intact industrial base and the continent pretty much in ruins.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 273.

    271.Phelim

    Thats just the view of a accountant.Germany sells products what are seen as investments.So price is not really a issue.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 272.

    @263 the BSA paper is by Joe Heaton, "An Examination of the Post-Second World War Relative Decline of UK Manufacturing 1945-1975, viewed through the Lens of the Birmingham Small Arms Company Ltd". I found it on the internet as "Heaton07PhD.pdf", but it is not something one can easily digest in an hour or two. Highly recommended reading for those interested, though.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 271.

    It's largely because Germany's exporters have benefitted from a joining a currency inherently weaker than the D-Mark that has enabled them to grow their export markets outside the Eurozone, so it's precisely for that reason why they should remain commited to it. A return to the D-Mark or a "harder" € will render them suddenly much less competitive in these markets

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 270.

    @260/261 DB
    That ties in with CBI spokespersons routinely complaining at times that the £ is too high against overseas currencies for British exports to sell. This complaint then alternates with another CBI spokesperson stating in the media that the £ is too low & is pushing up the cost of imported materials so UK business is uncompetitive abroad.

    No 'Goldilocks zone' for them ...

  • Comment number 269.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 268.

    Well done Mr, Peston, nothing like stating the obvious, it used to be that in the 70's we had a crane that showed imports and exports, what the British need is a kick up the backside, to many too many none productive motor mouths, to much paper not enough drive.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 267.

    263.IR35_SURVIVOR
    #261 BSA home market collapspe around 1962

    Alas for the BSA Bandit has never happened!
    Never mind my BSA Bantam and C15 were more than fast enough for me as the scars on my legs show
    Never did get my Rocket Gold Star

  • rate this
    +3

    Comment number 266.

    The Euro was a dollar-envy wet-dream and Germany its prime-mover. Of course they will not surrender it easily, as they do not care about the hardship they inflict on others.

    Germany would rather bring down the EU than admit error and fold the Euro.

    The social unrest that propping-up the Eurozone is causing through austerity measures is disgraceful, but does Germany care?

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 265.

    257.Chris London

    Germany s economy and exports are past pre-crises levels.2011 was the first time 1000 billion was exported.
    SO as already said it opened a gap of 5 years since 2008 compared to UK and UK is one of the best in term
    of investor sentiment( just look at interest rates for bonds )

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 264.

    And what's the value of derivative bets that GS has on the break up of the Euro Mr O'Neill?

    The vampire squid strikes again - masters of misinformation for their own positioning & paper gain

    The consequences of the Euro surviving are likely to be very negative for the un-regulated CoL hub - that self interest drives all their positioning

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 263.

    #261 BSA home market collapspe around 1962 as people started to buy cars like the moggie in great number and they failed to move with the times althougg in there hey day they never made much money as although the exported thye were not premium produced as rest of world was relatively poor. Alas the Rocket III was launched to late and cost to much to make and sell etc

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 262.

    I absolutely agree with the posters who make the point that it is in Germany's interest for the euro to limp on.
    But if it did fail - so what..? We don't sell ANYTHING to 'The Eurozone' - we sell to Germany, France etc - so we would be paid in whatever currency these countries reverted to (pre-1999).
    Not to say that we shouldn't make every effort to sell to the BRICS, etc..

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 261.

    @44 (2) Another cause of BSA's collapse was poor employee education & training compared to German and Japanese companies such as BMW and Honda. Strikes also played a part but were of relatively minor influence compared to the continuing management gaffes- clearly they were not up to the job. I believe the paper's contents can be applied to post-WW2 British industry as a whole.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 260.

    @44 Several years ago I read a lengthy paper about the demise of BSA, once world's largest motorcycle manufacturer (remember BSA?) One of the most telling causes was lack of adoption of modern manufacturing methods and tooling. At that time BSA owned Churchill, the machine tool company, and could easily have asked for their advice. Sadly the BSA management never did. TBC

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 259.

    If the EZ collapsed, leading to a strong Deutschmark, UK exports to Germany would become more competitive. By this logic the UK would be in real trouble only if Germany's trade with China collapsed as a result of a strong Deutschmark or N Euro. In fact most UK EZ exports go to N Euro countries, so a strong N Euro would of benefit.

  • rate this
    -3

    Comment number 258.

    The euro won't collapse and the UK to its disappointment will be still obliged to make good business with the EZ

 

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