A key week for the world economy
The US election is just one of several key events taking place this week
In the City they've dubbed it "the most important week of the rest of 2012". You can see why. If you were feeling dramatic, you could say that more than half of global GDP will be "in play", one way or another.
America will - we hope - decide on who will be its president for the next four years; the Chinese will start the formal handover to its new leaders, and the central banks of the eurozone and the UK will decide whether they need to do more to support their fragile economies.
Put it another way: the next few days will help determine the long-term economic direction of countries accounting for just over a quarter of global output. Those central bank meetings will also set short-term economic policy for countries that are responsible for another third.
Oh yes, and the Greek parliament will also be voting (probably on Wednesday) on further budget cuts that will determine whether it can get the next 31bn-euro tranche of its European-IMF rescue package. With widespread defections, it looks like the government will pass these measures only with the tiniest of majorities, if at all.
So, no pressure then.
The only event that the markets and everyone else have been completely ignoring is the meeting to which we would usually be paying most attention: the gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Mexico which concludes later today.
There's a good reason for that lack of interest: the most important G20 finance minister, Tim Geithner, won't be there. Nor will the eurozone policy maker with most room to actually make policy - Mario Draghi.
They won't be writing bland communiques on the future of the global economy this week: instead they and everyone else will be watching a good chunk of that future forming, right before our eyes.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~32~RS~)




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Comment number 83.
purple6th November 2012 - 23:27
There is a hic~cup exposed in ECB bond trading with Spain, an exposure of maybe €16.6bn http://euobserver.com/economic/118085
Not small potatoes on INTEREST charged and surprising until you research the pandora's box that isthe Spanish market in them.
BME ~ New Corp. Debt, nine month total €282.41 bn, exceeding entire 2011
Trading on Corporate Debt in nine months was €1.8 tr, down 56.8%
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Comment number 82.
purple6th November 2012 - 22:45
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20219525 Germany did the same 1995~2005 There economics are rubbish. AUSTERITY IS RUBBISH.
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:USA&dl=en&hl=en&q=gdp#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:DEU:GBR&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
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Comment number 81.
purple6th November 2012 - 22:28
57. Up2snuff ~ there was no error, l had simply been in banking mode and got carried away. :)
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Comment number 80.
John_from_Hendon6th November 2012 - 22:24
78.fleche_dor
The reason that the NIESR does not list the 1870 depression is that it resulted from a property boom/crash - remind your of something! In the UK 1873 to 1896 - 23 years. Reason is that an asset price bubble takes a long time to deflate (on the death of the owner?) and this crushes the whole economy.
Hence my 'solution' set.
Force the deflation and the economy can recover jobs.
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Comment number 79.
Up2snuff6th November 2012 - 21:32
@75 ted
The problems are also to do with keeping ears & eyes open and brain connected and asking before, during & after anything happens 'What if ... ' .
If only GB had asked himself 'What if the BTL mkt dominates private housing & sucks in Benefits ... ?' or 'What if there is a level where private debt becomes dangerous ... ?' or 'What if I switch too much tax to the lower paid ...?'
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Comments 5 of 83