Good week for the euro - but also a warning

 

The German chancellor says it's a "good day for Germany and a good day for Europe". Better than that, it's been a good week.

First, the European Central Bank delivered on its pledge to do more - possibly quite a lot more - to hold the euro together. Now the German constitutional court has ruled in favour the new European bailout fund, the ESM.

Cue sighs of relief in financial markets around the world. But there's an irony in both decisions which should not be lost on the financial markets or Europe's politicians: the institutions that seem to be most keen to put control over the future of the euro into the hands of the voters are the ones that are least accountable to them.

This is quite clear in the case of the German constitutional court's judgement. As expected, there were conditions attached to the court's decision to allow the ESM to go ahead: Germany's potential liability must remain at the current level of 190bn euros (£152bn; $245bn).

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Anything more, and the government has to go to parliament for approval; and both German houses of parliament, not just the Bundestag, have to be informed about everything involving the ESM.

There's nothing here that will come as a surprise to Chancellor Merkel. Nor will it prevent the ESM operating broadly as expected. That is certainly what the financial markets have concluded.

A quick reminder of the nuts and bolts: the deals that have been done by European governments in the past year give the EFSF and ESM a combined capacity of 700bn euros - about 300bn of which has already been committed to the Greek, Irish and Portuguese bailouts and helping the Spanish banks.

Germany's 27% share in the ESM when it fully takes over from the EFSF in 2014 will come to just under 190bn euros. I don't think any serious politician - in Germany or anywhere else - believed it would be possible to increase Germany's liabilities without returning to national parliaments.

In their judgement, the judges also stated that "borrowing by the ESM from the European Central Bank" would be incompatible with EU law, but investors don't seem concerned by this, either.

In the past, it's true that some had suggested that granting the ESM a banking licence would enable it to increase its lending capacity, because it would then be able to borrow directly from the ECB.

But in a recent speech in Austria, the prospective head of the ESM, Klaus Regling, said flatly that was wrong. "It's a wrong assessment… the lending capacity of the EFSF is fixed and the lending of the ESM is fixed."

All that a banking licence would do would be to make it easier for the ESM to borrow up to that limit. And anyway, any change in the structure of the fund that did have the effect of raising the fund's potential lending capacity would have to be ratified by parliaments.

So, the German constitutional court has not caused havoc. It has allowed the current strategy for saving the euro to continue.

But it has underscored that Germany's leaders should not be seeking to "get around" the voters in their solutions to the crisis. Whatever schemes they might come up with to hold this project together, if they can't make the case to parliament - and the voters - they should not be making it at all.

Something similar can be said of the ECB's new policy, which commits "unlimited" resources, but still clings to conditionality as a way to put the responsibility back into the laps of the politicians.

Martin Wolf deftly makes the point in his latest column for the FT: "The ECB is saying that it will seek to eliminate the threat of a break-up, except when this threat is most real, which is, of course, precisely when the country is failing to meet policy conditions. Investors know that electorates might choose a government that has no intention of sticking to agreed conditions. What happens then?"

Ultimately the decision whether to "do what it takes" to hold the euro together is a political one, which the ECB, understandably enough, wants to be taken by politicians, not the central bank. In a democracy, those politicians, in turn, should be accountable to the voters. Germany's constitutional judges surely feel the same way.

The ECB and Germany's highest court have done their bit to save the euro. The question they've left unanswered is whether Europe - and especially Germany's politicians - can do what it takes to persuade the voters that the single currency is worth saving.

 
Stephanie Flanders, Economics editor Article written by Stephanie Flanders Stephanie Flanders Former economics editor

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  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 118.

    The extended periods of political direction through the past 40 years have been incredibly destructive for this country. We have to make, grow, and develop what we use. Until there is an established trade surplus, we are all selling off the silver ware. It cannot continue.

    Practical economists excused industry as unimportant, today is the result of that thinking. As stupid as it gets lazy idiots.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 117.

    Why is it that the moronic fed & BoE see than they can save anything through insanely low interest rates?

    Don't they realise that the rates themselves indicate that the economy is bankrupt! So keeping the rates at zero indicates that there is no recovery at all and the economy is still collapsing and unable to support rational prices for money - absolutely everyone knows this! They are mad!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 116.

    A broader view of #115, is the civilisation rip off, same as it ever was.

    Finance redistributes wealth, and that can become insanity. That is what has happened, again. The lessons are there, the act is one of responsible balancing, because a broad base of well paid employment is necessary.

    There is nothing special about the wealthy, other than unfortunate influence, which unchecked, is bad.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 115.

    He is te nduring problem. Low interest rates are very good things, especially where sensible lending is practiced, and, the sum borrowed is paid down rapidly, creating wealth. Paying down pricipal debt, besides interest, creates wealth.

    What takes place is gravy train for those engaged in lending.
    This true of savings and investments - pensions.

    Europe was a mess in 2008 & hid it

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 114.

    TO GOENZOY 6:30 PM APPROX. re Target 2 transfers 'imbalances within the system'. Target 2 transfers are from Bundesbank to central banks of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal who pass them on to banks. Liam Halligan of Telegraph has been pointing out for years that EZ is crawling with 'zombie' banks; when the write-offs are finally made they will go v Buba loans ie v GERMAN TAXPAYER.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 113.

    Mitt Romney would win the election if a large US finance house, or two, failed.

    And there is enough irresponsible finance capital in the US with Republican sympathies, and enough Republican sympathy in the finance houses themselves, to pull a stunt like that.

    But infinite credit would block the move. Hence the US $40bn/month QE

    And shares jump! Well done, Obama, 2-term President!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 112.

    I am hearing some nasty rumours that because many European banks are swamped with bad debt and many European governments are unable to continue to provide support for large corporate businesses which are also heavily indebted that trouble is not far off.

    As always I hope I am very wrong. However, as I often remark with bust banks and bust governments nobody can feel safe.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 111.

    And now the US Federal Reserve are turning their taps on to boost the US economy.

    What happens when everyone turns their taps on - because everybody else is?

    The race to the bottom continues apace.

    Everyone aiming to out smart others.

    There are short term winners. - Banks.

    In the short term. But of course that is their strategy.
    Banks will expect us to find other ways to bail them out.
    Again.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 110.

    Many pro-EU people will not grasp that 'SAVING THE EURO' will not mean the continuation of the 'European Project' but its destruction. There is a 30-40% competitiveness gap between the N & S. HSBC calculated that a N EURO would trade at $1.80 and a S at 65 cents. EITHER N OR S MUST LEAVE. Golden Dawn which has for its flag a symbol clearly modelled on the swastika got 6% in elections - NOW 12%.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 109.

    104.
    stanilic

    Fair enough. Good hunting.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 108.

    "US and the UK are both still trying to hold back the tide of financial disaster by printing worthless cash. "
    ++++


    Many investors buy as crazy. Just US bonds.

    With doomed euro having hardly any chance of becoming "next global reserve currency" while EU Commi-ssars refuse to admit that the whole shebang has deep systemic problems urgently needing drastic reforms.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 107.

    Whatever the Euro is doing the real story is with the $ & its demise as the world reserve currency

    With QE3 in the states, in effect yet more creation of money which is being called asset buying when its nothing more than debt creation

    However, the big con now will be how will the banksters suppress the price of gold & in the case of JP Morgans survival, silver, given JPs massive short position

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 106.

    Again: EU, let alone EZ is not 'Europe' which is a semi-continent and a thousands years old civilization/culture which existed long before those 2 transient outfits and will continue to exist long after they are gone (just as Barroso&Merkel).

    Btw. what about Article 123 of Lisbon Treaty which specifically prevents ECB from lending to governments?

    Another EU law being broken with impunity?

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 105.

    Here's another warning...

    The US central bank has announced it will resume its policy of pumping more money into the economy via so-called quantitative easing.

    It's not just the Eurozone you need to worry about. America and the UK are both still trying to hold back the tide of financial disaster by printing worthless cash. The banksters are laughing all the way to the bank.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 104.

    103

    If you had bothered to follow the thread you would see what I was responding to. I have not seen you on this message board before but some of us have been at this for some time and know each others views. fallingTP has a bone to pick with me from yesterday. I don't mind if he does but I will bag him back. It is fun.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 103.

    99.
    stanilic
    "By the bye it is `pray' not `prey'. This is not the first time I have had to pick you up on your spelling."
    Pompous twit. If you have nothing to say then don't say it.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 102.

    Normal currency issuing Statesultimately do whatever it takes to support their currency, be it use of reserves or printing & all other means at their disposal. As long as the Eurozone imposes limits or has conditional barriers on its support for its currency then the markets will see it as an inferior currency

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 101.

    As for punishment thru cuts it is rediculously inflated state that got us here in first place. To suggest that these "ordinary" folk have been well served by this gross expansion is misty-eyed at best. Yes those who work for the leviathan benefit, & part. useless educated classes who get the prime jobs but it is simply false to suggest that the public is well served by the state money go round.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 100.

    I type quickly and without review as it's pretty fruitless blogging whichever way you looka t it. Nor have I ever amde claims of beign able to spell.

    As for ordinary people could you tell me thus who are not "ordinary people" as your definition of ordinary seems to cover just abotu everyone

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 99.

    89

    That is the very point I am making.

    Ordinary people = taxpayers, voters, little old ladies with savings among others

    By the bye it is `pray' not `prey'. This is not the first time I have had to pick you up on your spelling despite your claims of a superior education.

 

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