Draghi will do what it takes (give or take)

 
Mario Draghi Markets were unimpressed by Mr Draghi's comments

Financial markets got some clarity from the European Central Bank (ECB) president today on what the bank was prepared to do to help troubled eurozone economies. There was also some genuine news in what Mario Draghi said on the issue of seniority.

But - as Mr Draghi said himself - there are plenty of details still to be filled in. As I suggested in my blog on Saturday, he's going to make sure that governments get their act together first.

The ECB president confirmed that the bank was willing to buy government bonds in the secondary market, but there were three key conditions.

First, the country concerned must have already applied for support from the European rescue funds - the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and/or the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Second, that support would need to have strings attached - conditionality. In other words, the beneficiary government would need to have made appropriate promises on fiscal policy and structural reforms.

And third, the ECB governing council would itself have to decide that central bank bond purchases are also needed. Here, Mr Draghi was very clear that "monetary policy remains independent": conditions one and two are necessary for the ECB to act, but there's no guarantee that it will.

Will this be enough? The early response of financial market analysts seems to be that it will not be: the head of Pimco, Bill Gross, for example has already said the market will be disappointed.

They will be especially disappointed, probably, by the lack of detail on how, exactly, the ECB plans to go about any bond purchases - and the lack of a time frame.

The ECB president said the relevant committees would need to work on the "modalities" of any ECB intervention over the next few weeks.

Talk of committees makes investors' hearts sink. It sounds bureaucratic and slow, when the one thing the ECB is supposed to have over governments is that it can act quickly, without all those bloomin' meetings.

He also said that one member of the governing council had objected to today's statement. The assumption is that it was the head of the Bundesbank.

But, as Mr Draghi himself said, at the moment there is no country that has applied to the EFSF or ESM - so even if the ECB were ready to act, "there would be no case for doing so".

And in some areas, the lack of detail was interesting in its own right.

Crucially, Mr Draghi explicitly left open whether the new bond purchases would be sterilised - i.e. whether the ECB would sell other assets, to leave the total money supply unchanged.

To translate: if the bond purchases are not sterilised, then they would come under the heading of genuine quantitative easing, like the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

This, and the talk of "new modalities" is significant. It means that future bond purchases - if they happen - will not involve the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). They will be qualitatively different, and perhaps quantitatively different as well. Mr Draghi said they would involve short-dated debt - not the longer term government bonds included in the SMP. And they will be "of a size adequate to reach its objective". That could be a lot bigger than the "limited and finite" purchases we saw under the SMP.

My reading of all this is that Mr Draghi wants to bring the bond purchasing programme back into the fold. He wants it to form a coherent part of the ECB's monetary policy machinery, rather than an awkward add-on, like the SMP.

That is important for the future - even if the "modalities" are vague, and the conditionality for governments is a necessary first step.

It is also important that the ECB has promised to address investors' concerns about seniority (for an explanation of which, see my Saturday blog). It's news, even if it is completely unclear, right now, how the ECB could take a hit on its future bond holdings when it had previously suggested this was not legally possible.

The bottom line is that the ECB has not offered as much as many in the markets had hoped for. But Mr Draghi has laid down some important markers for the future which should not be ignored.

Posterity might judge the ECB's performance more kindly than investors do today. Then again, for most in the financial markets, posterity is not exactly a big concern.

Update 1850: The markets are indeed deeply disappointed by what the ECB has done.

The euro is down and the interest rate on Spanish and Italian 10-year government bonds have each risen by around a third of a percentage point since Mr Draghi first opened his mouth.

Dario Perkins, at Lombard Street Research, says the ECB "spectacularly under-delivered".

Marchel Alexandrovich, at Jefferies, is even more damning. He thinks the insistence on a country applying for formal support sends a dangerous signal to the markets.

"What Draghi has basically indicated is that the problem in the bond markets has to get considerably worse before the ECB steps in to help.

"This is an incredible turn of events. Forget pre-emptive action, instead Draghi had just presented a clear vision of how the crisis is now set to intensify.

"Draghi is playing a very dangerous game here. Prior to today, the markets hoped a bailout would not be necessary, now they have been told it is inevitable!"

Others are not quite so depressed about Mr Draghi's performance. That might be because they had lower expectations to begin with. But he has certainly hit the ball back into the government side of the court.

 
Stephanie Flanders Article written by Stephanie Flanders Stephanie Flanders Former economics editor

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  • Comment number 100.

    All this user's posts have been removed.Why?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 99.

    I am coming round to the view that the Greek/Spanish/Irish/Portuguese /Irish & French & German & British problem is not a problem at all.

    It is the result of collective stupidity by capitalist markets participants - they see this as the last chance saloon gambling den & we are being stupid enough to pander to them!

    Call their bluff!

    Tell them they will get 4.0% to loan money to the EZ states.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 98.

    The club med countries need to ask one question is it morally right to pass on masses of debt to there children and unborn. If answer is yes stay in the Euro. If they think no we want a country as good if not better than they were born then leave.

    Problem is most politicians don't have morals. Please think of the Kids Europe and bye bye Euro. A step too far in unionisation Glad not in it.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 97.

    Germany and a few other northern eu countries will not accept devaluation. I believe in Germany it is against the law. Printing of money by the ECB is also not allowed. Draghi is trying to circumvent the system as he is desperate. I agree with 96. Germany has to give money to the debtor nations and they will never ever do this I think they will cut the debtor nations adrift.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 96.

    @93

    I'm sorry, what are you disagreeing with?

    I didn't say it would hurt Germany more...I said they are the only ones who can fix it and they won't. And so it will be Game Over.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 95.

    Stephanie,

    If the people of europe are willing to support the idea, that Germany will underwrite the euro and allow the ECB to issue bonds. Then this scheme will sortout the current un-balance and save the euro.

    Eventually the countries in trouble will sortout there problems. It will take a long time ( possibly 10 to 15 years) but there is no real alternative.

    Good Luck.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 94.

    We do not have a dilemma on our hands since we cannot go one of two ways or indeed any way.

    We find ourselves at an impasse and yet the bankers are quite happy to carry on as if nothing has happened.

    That is why calls for a revolution should not be dismissed out of hand.

    What is the alternative? More of the same? Continuously?

    No change then?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 93.

    84/92 KickAssAndGiggle


    Well not really a correct assessment.Yes Germany will NOT pay simple because the law is against it (german/european law )
    And if you think its a GAME OVER situation well it s more problem for the bondholder or CDS holder and not Germany.
    Situation like Greece with haircut is the best example.The market needs to pick-up part of the loss.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 92.

    @86

    I fail to draw much distinction between devaluation and giving money.

    Printing money devalues the Euro, making each German Euro less valuable.

    To imply that somehow the German people will blissfully be unaware of this "sameness" is unrealistic. And therefore, they either accept giving away money or it is game over: they certainly won't be "tricked" into it.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 91.

    our sticking plaster funds are not good enough so when they fail we will use, if pushed really hard, a bond sticking plaster on top.

    hardly surprising the markets are disapointed but on the other side it has the German conservatives threatening to sue the ECB for "violating the rights of holders and depositors of money"

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 90.

    Not clear to me how this helps long term. The ECB effectively printing money is within its gift and could provide some relief on interest rates. Structural imbalances between the "North" and Club Med though cannot be magicked away and the same issue will simply come back again and again.

    85 - Belief in revolution is naive! What do you expect to get...the triumph of right-minded folk? Hardly!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 89.

    88.John_from_Hendon
    Please explain how revolution will solve anything?


    => If you make half a revolution you can turn your back on it - which is what Draggy wishes he could do.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 88.

    85.AC "only revolution is going to stop this process"

    Revolution will make not difference at all!

    Please explain how revolution will solve anything?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 87.

    re#84
    Any possible outcome pretty much results in Germany paying - even fiscal integration and, sooner or later, full political union.

    It's just that some outcomes may 1. happen further down the line so that the present politicos have retired and are away enjoying life & avoiding the flak, and 2. the true cost to Germany (+Luxembourg) can be disguised.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 86.

    84 KickAssAndGiggle

    There is an 'intermediate', but just as unlikely to be accepted, solution: the ECB prints Euros and gives them to the weaker countries. That way, no one in Germany feels they are giving away cash, but they would suffer (or benefit from) a little devaluation.

    It's easy and obvious, but forces the EZ to admit that their original plan was incompetent.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 85.

    81.James

    Succinct and correct, only revolution is going to stop this process as citizens of countries are not important to these people.

    The world of high finance has been exposed as a fraud, laws are being abused, and the 99% are being used as scapegoats, meanwhile they continue down this failed road and they are like Canute trying to stop the inevitable.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 84.

    I've said it once and I'll say it again:

    Germany either GIVES money to the weaker countries, NOT LENDS BUT GIVES, or the Euro is finished.

    Very doubtful that Germany will, and therefore, the smart money is on bye-bye Euro (or at least, in the form we currently know.)

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 83.

    The money does not exist it is all pie in the sky no one will admit it . The kings new robe comes to mind

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 82.

    On a recent trip to Dublin, the pubs were full and the Guinness was flowing like it was going out of fashion. Puzzled, I asked "but isn't there a Euro crisis and austerity".

    With a dry Irish wit, the drinkers looked at me as if I was daft and ordered another round. "We're all up to our necks in debt in here" he said "but we may as well go bust owing millions rather than thousands".

    Quite.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 81.

    Draghi wants to force the citizens of Spain, Italy and others to take yet more EU bailout money and accept further austerity measures.

    In effect, this money will go straight to the banks (and their CEO's) whilst the taxpayers are made liable and have to take wage cuts, pensions slashed, are made redundant etc.

    This is simply a redistribution of wealth from the masses TO THE VERY RICH!

 

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