Why the eurozone downgrades matter

 
Trader looking at dollar-euro exchange rate graph Reports of the downgrades earlier on Friday send the euro to a new low against the dollar

The downgrade by S&P of a whole string of eurozone countries should not in the short-term cause a sharp worsening in the currency union's financial crisis.

But it could reinforce the slow and painful decline of the eurozone and its sprawling banking system.

The point is that emergency protection was put in place before Christmas by the European Central Bank - which provided an unprecedented 489bn euros of three-year loans to eurozone banks, promised banks they could borrow as much more of this long-term money as they need in February, and added that banks could swap almost any asset they've got for additional euros.

Or to put it another way, the European Central Bank basically said that for a year or two, it doesn't matter whether eurozone banks find it impossible to borrow from commercial lenders in markets, because the central bank will lend what's needed.

The entire eurozone banking system can be seen to have been nationalised - or at least the funding of banks has been nationalised, even if their ownership hasn't been transferred to taxpayers.

There is a benign paradox here, pointed out to me by Morgan Stanley - which is that the decision of the ECB to in effect underwrite all eurozone banks means that stronger European banks (including British banks), such as those from the northern European economies, have been able to issue unsecured debt again (to an extent).

Proper private-sector funding markets have re-opened for a small number of banks from stronger economies.

So in the first few days of 2012, Swiss, German, Dutch , UK and Nordic banks sold €19bn of unsecured debt, compared with €18.4bn in the last six months of 2011.

Of course, it has been impossible for eurozone banks from the over-borrowed southern economies to borrow in this way.

But the ECB's rescue strategy has had a useful spin-off benefit for banks that are not on the critical list.

The point is that the ECB's largesse has - for a period at least - probably eliminated the worst thing that could happen as a result of the downgrade of an Italy, Spain or France, which is that a giant bank would find it much harder to borrow and would therefore collapse.

Bankers and regulators disagree on how much time has been bought by the ECB for a more fundamental solution to be found to the eurozone's problems.

One banker told me he thought no big bank would collapse this year. A regulator however feels the ECB has provided stability for just three months - and that a bank or banks could run out of collateral to pledge to the ECB in the second quarter of this year, and therefore topple over then

Anyway, the background to all this is that when the debt of an Italy or a France is downgraded, that hurts Italian and French banks in two ways. The value of their loans to their respective governments - the banks' holdings of the relevant sovereign debt - would be perceived to have fallen.

But perhaps more importantly the downgraded Italian and French governments would be seen to be less financially capable of bailing out Italian and French banks in a crisis, so other creditors would be shouldering more risk.

That's why sovereign downgrades can make it harder and more expensive for banks to borrow.

But for Italian and French banks, that's no longer the concern it was just a month ago, now that the ECB is the big provider of loans to banks.

Even so, that doesn't mean the downgrades will bring no pain to the eurozone. For the governments of France, Spain, Italy and so on, borrowing costs may go up.

Perhaps more importantly, and at the risk of repeating myself, the downgrades increase the dependence of the big banks on finance from the European Central Bank - and for the economic recovery of the eurozone, that's a very bad thing.

The less that banks are able to raise funds in a normal commercial way, the more they're dependent on a central bank, the more reluctant they are to lend to the wider economy - and given the massive dependence of the eurozone economy on finance provided by banks, that leads to a reduction of economic activity, a reinforcement of recessionary conditions.

Also, as worrying as the downgrades, in that context, has been the enormous difficulty that Italy's biggest bank, Unicredit, has been experiencing when raising new capital, the vital buffer against future losses.

The collapse in Unicredit's share price as it tried to raise €7.5bn in a rights issue means - bankers tell me - that the market for new equity capital is in effect shut for most eurozone banks.

But if banks can't raise capital, they have no choice but to shrink balance sheets and lend less.

That has a devastating impact on the eurozone's households and businesses, which are finding it harder to borrow what they need.

So even if the downgrades don't lead to default by a nation or a bank, they make it much harder for the banks - and in a way the whole eurozone - to get off life support.

The downgrades may not be lethal for the eurozone. But they keep the financial system and the economy in the sick bay.

That creates a damaging negative feedback loop (less lending means asset price falls, more bankruptcies, bigger losses for banks, and even less lending by capital-constrained banks) which makes it all the harder for the eurozone to break free of its cycle of decline.

And, as I said in my earlier note, the downgrades also make it harder for the eurozone to establish a proper circuit breaker - in the form of a giant bailout fund - to protect other sovereign creditors in the event that today's impasse in Greek debt talks lead to a Greek default.

All of which means that when eurozone leaders argue that the downgrades don't really matter, they may be indulging in wishful thinking.

UPDATE 2330

The downgrades by Standard & Poors are more-or-less as bad as they could have been.

Of 16 eurozone countries under review, nine have been downgraded - including the currency union's second biggest economy, France - which, with Austria, has lost its cherished AAA rating.

And the debt of the Portuguese government has been downgraded to junk, putting it in the same broad category of financial outcast as Greece, and raising fears that Portugal could renege on what it owes.

Also S&P warns that there is a greater than one-in-three chance for 14 eurozone governments that they'll be downgraded again.

It's S&P's reasons for the downgrades that many will see as particularly worrying: the agency argues that government plans to fix the eurozone crisis are inadequate and actually risk making the crisis worse, by sending weaker economies, like Portugal's and Spain's, into potentially deep recessions.

 
Robert Peston Article written by Robert Peston Robert Peston Economics editor

Can Balls be just austere enough?

Can Ed Balls persuade investors he would reduce Britain's public sector deficit just enough, while not demoralising Labour supporters who want an end to the long years of austerity?

Read full article

More on This Story

More from Robert

Comments

This entry is now closed for comments

Jump to comments pagination
 
  • rate this
    -10

    Comment number 15.

    If everyone is downgraded, which seem highly probably, does it actually matter much? Individual downgrades may change the cost of borrowing, but this is far too low still so an upwards tick makes economic sense.

    The Euro will survive and the UK will join because it makes commercial sense for us to do so. Only a true banker would want to see bankers to steal the people wealth as money changers

  • rate this
    +5

    Comment number 14.

    These credit agencies are dictating whether or not the world ever gets out of this economic downturn, its pathetic!

    Although I'm not a lover of the Euro, I can't help feeling sorry for the people from the Eurozone. After all, they have been sold down the river by the countless, corrupt governments and this country is no different.
    The politicians live it up while the rest just about live.

  • rate this
    +7

    Comment number 13.

    6. the_hot_chef

    Maybe sterling has gone down the tubes quicker than the Euro.

    Constructive devaluation perhaps - what with all our debts and suchlike.

  • rate this
    +10

    Comment number 12.

    Those of us always opposed to the Euro and the EU said before the former was launched that it was bound to fail. Today's news is merely another milestone on the way to its inevitable collapse. Would it be too much to ask that all the Europhiles now admit that we were right and cease to promote this failed project?

  • rate this
    +10

    Comment number 11.

    The Euro tide has gone out but we can't see who's been swimming without their knickers as Draghi has lent everyone a flannel.
    Thing is we will know who the culprits are in due course as they will be slowly trying to sneak away backwards.

  • rate this
    +16

    Comment number 10.

    @2.Boilerbill
    What should not be forgotten is that downgrades push up interest rates

    Not necessarily check Japan

    The truth is their ratings should have been downgraded the day they joined the Euro because they gave up the ability to manipulate their currency (& ECB was forbidden from doing so) to repay debt, that immediately made them a worse risk than a currency issuing state

  • rate this
    +5

    Comment number 9.

    It is good that the Eurozone bailout fund approved just before Christmas has given us all a bit of breathing space to arrange our finances in such a way that we can reduce the impact of a fairly major breakdown of the Euro area. The downgrades are just another step in the march down the slow decline of many of our economies - something that is likely to continue over the months and years ahead.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 8.

    The background to this which must also figure in the minds of the money markets is that in effect all governments of the EU have decided to deflate their economies and therefore make it more difficult to reduce deficits and in practice to exacerbate the current position. It is a condition in which the UK finds itself and therefore will have its own downgrading soon.

  • rate this
    +14

    Comment number 7.

    Are these the same credit rating agencies that were giving banks such as Lehman's, RBS and the like a clean bill of health right up the hour they went bust?
    With such astounding credibility, why does any one give a damn what they say?

  • rate this
    +15

    Comment number 6.

    If the Euro is on its knees, can anyone please explain to me,

    Why does it cost me 82p to buy one euro today when 3 years ago when there was no "crisis" it only cost me 66p?

  • rate this
    +8

    Comment number 5.

    "The downgrades may not.......keep the financial system and the economy in the sick bay."
    ~
    And that's the whole point of them, that's what the 'downgraders' wanted.
    It's high time that your serious consideration was given to replacing fractional reserve with a money supply created and controlled by the state, i.e. a ban on banks creating money as debt. It's the only way forward, end this charade.

  • rate this
    +23

    Comment number 4.

    Well, my first reaction is to quote "Neither a borrower or a lender be".

    My second reaction is to ask why some gimcrack organisation in the US holds such sway over what happens elsewhere in the world?

    The US is having to paper over its own cracks. If it were not for the fact that oil continues to be priced in dollars they would have descended to the status of a third world country years ago.

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 3.

    Dear Mrs Merkel,

    If the Euro is to go on, YOU have to start shovelling cash into the poorer countries immediately. Otherwise, watch them and possibly all the rest of Europe, even Germany, go down the drain.

    Regard,
    WP

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 2.

    What should not be forgotten is that downgrades push up interest rates and increase the income of those who are prepared to take a risk. So if I were a banker I would want the ratings to go down. In the short term I would want this instability to continue. If I get a little worried, my mates at S&P could restore the AAA rating and make my nervous mates happy again.

  • rate this
    +7

    Comment number 1.

    Why does no one mention in this context George Soros's theory of reflexivity, which - crudely put - is that these estimations tend to be self-fulfilling prophecies?

 

Page 20 of 20

 

Features

  • FlagsNational identity

    After the referendum, have two Scotlands emerged?


  • Two sphinxes guarding the entrance to the tombTomb mystery

    Secrets of ancient burial site keep Greeks guessing


  • Tattooed person using tabletRogue ink

    People who lost their jobs because of their tattoos


  • Two people holding up the newly discovered head of Mithras, 1954Roman puzzle

    How to put London's mysterious underground temple back together


  • Deepika PadukoneBeauty and a tweet

    Bollywood cleavage row shows India's 'crass' side


BBC © 2014 The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.