Jobs market 'slow, painful contraction' predicted


One woman's struggle to find work and Gerwyn Davies from the CIPD on why they are not optimistic about the jobs market

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The UK labour market faces a "slow, painful contraction" with firms delaying recruitment of more staff, a key report suggests.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) predicted the jobs market would worsen in the medium term amid global economic "turmoil".

Its quarterly survey of 1,000 employers found firms' future hiring plans dwarfed by likely public sector losses.

A separate Barnardo's report said jobless teenagers were being "ignored".

It found employers adopting a "wait and see" policy towards the economy.

This involved reduced recruitment as well as fewer redundancies.

The number of UK employers planning to outsource work overseas or hire migrant workers had also fallen substantially in the last three months, the survey found.

The CIPD said the employment situation could worsen if the eurozone crisis thrust the world back into recession.

Business 'lull'

CIPD public policy adviser Gerwyn Davies said: "The good news resulting from this lull in business activity is that fewer employers are looking to relocate abroad or make redundancies.

Graph showing unemployment in UK since 1992

"The downside is that recruitment intentions are falling, which will make further rises in unemployment therefore seem inevitable given that public sector job losses are outpacing the predictions made by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

"There is no immediate sign of UK labour market conditions improving in the short or medium term."

Monday's report comes two days before the latest official unemployment figures are expected to show that jobless 16 to 24-year-olds total more than a million.

David Cameron and Ed Miliband spoke about the economy during a visit to Birmingham

Last month, the CIPD reported that the public sector had been shedding jobs at five times the rate previously predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The think tank called on the government to "call a halt to public sector job cuts while the economy and labour market remain in the current fragile condition".

But the Treasury said "risks in the global economy make it even more essential to stick to the government's essential deficit reduction plan".

It insisted that private sector job creation would substantially outweigh the public sector cuts by 2015, according to the OBR forecast.

'Lost generation'

The Barnardo's study said the most disadvantaged unemployed 16 and 17-year-olds were seeing their chances of learning new skills to help them find work "rapidly declining".

It said that government reforms to reduce unemployment were wrongly prioritising young people from the age of 18 and above.

Barnardo's chief executive Anne Marie Carrie said: "Britain's uneven playing field is causing an entire generation of the most disadvantaged teenagers to become 'lost in transition'.

"Proof of this lies in the unemployment rate for 16 and 17-year-olds, which has almost doubled over the last decade."

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Claimant count - June 2012


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  • rate this

    Comment number 327.

    "295 Barlinnie girlie

    152 Mr Kite- It's the lack of unions if anything. Trade Unions are much stronger in Germany and these kind of places and their economy's much better."

    Indeed. Germany has just announced £5Bn tax cuts, and unemployment is at it's lowest for 20 years. The difference? They put industry before banking.

  • rate this

    Comment number 326.

    Revolution anyone?

  • rate this

    Comment number 325.

    "Cameron...get him out before civil unrest kicks off all over the country"

    And you are proposing what in his place?

  • rate this

    Comment number 324.

    313. And you think Brown did anything beyond save his own skin? Do you not see that he merely prolonged the pain without dealing with the structures causing the problem? Labour had it really wrong. Credit bubble, bloated public sector, gerrymandered inflation figures and interest rates, lack of regulation on the bankers, despite a majority that made Britain effectively a one party state..?

  • rate this

    Comment number 323.

    There are numerous reasons why the current "system" has failed at the cost of jobs.

    Fundamentally - increasing jobs are being automated, outsourced or made redundant by cheap imports from the Far East.

    The fake debt fuelled consumer boom of the last decade or so came a jobs boom to produce consumer products - which has now collapsed.

    The whole system has failed. We need to get back to basics.

  • rate this

    Comment number 322.


    1 Minute Ago


    Morning Mac. I think a lot of the problem is with contributors on here who report comments they dont agree with to moderators who dont understand . perhaps its a case of the wrong people in the wrong jobs


    How ironic if a couple of mods get fired and add to the problem we are discussing

  • rate this

    Comment number 321.

    This is what comes of - spending and borrowing beyond your means to payback.

    We are ridiculously in debt - but still we spend and borrow like it has gone out of fashion !

    When will it be realised that wealth comes from trade and manufacture with low unemployment !

    Sad thing is though - The selected Rich still get richer under this Government - the workers well ...........................?

  • rate this

    Comment number 320.

    We're a small overcrowded island that doesn't produce much, has few natural resources and has had a good standard of living on the back of spivs in the city. The actual jobs that create any wealth rather than shuffle money about is frighteningly small. This is a result of short term thinking by ALL politicians. Remember Crash Gordon's mantra 'No return to boom and bust' whilst stoking the fire?

  • rate this

    Comment number 319.

    'This so-called Government is trying very hard to reduce the numbers of people on Invalidity Beneft, trying to get them back to work, they say'

    In tests. 1/3 on IB passed, 1/3 failed & 1/3 withdrew from IB before check. 2/3 were rooking you & me, stealing our money. This matches tests elsewhere. 'What work' for them? Not Govt's prob. Do we owe thieves a living? Forget a few bankers, nab crooks.

  • rate this

    Comment number 318.

    The governments first priority should be to its own people and people who have contributed to the state say for 10 years. We have far too many foreign people here claiming benefits. They come here get established and have babies then claim more benefits. Some of them even return to their home country still living off benefits we pay to them. This should be the first casualty of austerity

  • rate this

    Comment number 317.

    @233 Its your sort of useless qualifications that are the problem with this country "Connexions Advisor" all these jobs based around helping people find work and all these job agencies, a whole industry has been created around helping people to find NON-Existent jobs, now you are complaining you and 8000 others are unemployed, thats ironic that is.

  • rate this

    Comment number 316.

    I feel sorry for the young people in this country, they are being thrown on the scrapheap and this govt couldnt give a damn. Whatever your politics the whole of society is going to pay a high price for this in the future - and all for austerity measures that need not be put in place if UK companies paid their fair share of tax and Bankers were paid by results.

  • Comment number 315.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this

    Comment number 314.

    256. Benefits are worse than that. E.g. did you know that the amount of JSA someone can claim depends on something as irrelevant as whether their prior employer paid them monthly or weekly?! This is a FACT I could demonstrate; a nonsense nationwide policy of insanity and inequity implemented by a government that evidently can't understand simple numeracy.

  • rate this

    Comment number 313.

    242.Kingstheman to present government couldn't do any worst? what planet are you on. When the bankers coursed international financial collapse in the world economy in 2007/8 it was GB who got the world leaders together and hammered out a solution. What is DC doing? GB made sure that people kept their jobs yet DC sends people to the dole then blames them for being there. Roll on the next election.

  • rate this

    Comment number 312.

    "278 WingNut

    Some benefit culture Brits,and I know some, earn the equivalent of six figure salaries."

    Right. Sure. Been reading the Daily Mail have we? As someone who is saving the tax payer £1000-1500 a week by being a full-time carer I can state, without the old 'my mate' bit, that you know nothing about the realities of benefits other than what you glean from certain sections of the media.

  • Comment number 311.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this

    Comment number 310.

    Down with Corporatism!

    The Banking class who aspire to riches and the Political class who aspire to fewer riches, but more fame are the enemy.

    At the next election, if you cannot vote a new party in, please vote out your incumbent.

    Deny these people the power that they crave.

  • rate this

    Comment number 309.

    The Government need to change course and focus on investing in jobs, creating the business climate for jobs, and growing the economy. That should be the number one priority. When you have 3 million unemployed – Always number one.

    Instead they are bickering over unclear health reforms, an unwanted EU referendum and playing the blame game on border controls.

    Sort it out Cameron.

  • rate this

    Comment number 308.

    I'm no Tory, but I refuse to believe that Cameron would just sit back and watch the public squeezed so hard until the could take no more. Ultimately he is an elected official, and so needs to be re-elected in a few years. All anyone has to say is that they will tax financial transactions etc and they are a shoe in for election

    You wonder who is really in power given their reluctance to do so?


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