Some respite for European markets
Markets around the world have reacted badly to the downgrading of the US credit rating
Well I spoke too soon. The European Central Bank's (ECB) evasive action may not have impressed Asian investors, but in Europe it has reduced some of the acute stress afflicting markets.
Spanish and Italian bond prices have risen, and the implicit borrowing costs of the two governments have fallen - though to levels that are still high by recent standards.
That is what last night's ECB statement, which implies the central bank would start buying Italian and Spanish government debt, was designed to achieve.
It would have been utterly disastrous if there had been any other outcome.
Because - for the avoidance of any doubt - the ECB is taking a substantial reputational and financial risk in buying the debt of these nations: many will see the ECB as taking a serious credit risk in bailing out two financially over-stretched governments and as behaving contrary to the rules of prudent central banking.
But, for now, investors and creditors care most that someone - anyone - is buying Spanish and Italian government debt. And they're not desperately worried by the long-term risk that confidence in the intrinsic value of the European currency could be undermined by the conversion of government debt shunned by commercial investors into cash.
There has been a positive knock-on to shares in Spain and Italy, which have risen. The increase in government debt prices should help to make it easier and cheaper for Italian and Spanish banks to borrow - and also to lend, thus reducing the threat that their economies will slump
In volatile trading, UK shares opened lower, then rose, then dropped back. As for now, the trend is difficult to discern.
The attention of investors will now shift to the US Federal Reserve, and whether it will start buying US debt in a third phase of quantitative easing, to address concerns that America is slipping back into recession.
But as I have bored you by saying countless times, all this debt buying by central banks would be seen by investors and lenders not as a fundamental solution to the economic fragility of the US and the eurozone, but as simply creating the time and space for governments to address the fundamental problem of a record debt burden (household, government, financial and business debt) bearing down on their respective economies.
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~57~RS~)



Charting Europe's economic woes
World Bank predicts 'difficult' 2013
Pakistani politician is shot dead
Patience of Job
Tweets of the week
Clocking out
Most wanted
Story of the S-Class
Fast Track
Comment number 514.
ukblahblahblacksheep9th August 2011 - 10:37
Morgan Sindall are eyeing up land in London for re-development. Does that count as a silver lining? Come on City speculators... get the Share price up! Come on Rioters...get those old buildings down!
The sad thing is it would not surprise me if some suit somewhere commanding a massive salary is considering this. Someone earlier mentioned Social Responsibility is missing. I wonder why.
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Comment number 513.
ukblahblahblacksheep9th August 2011 - 10:27
Edwina Curry says the rioters do not understand that 'what is mine is mine, what is yours is yours so don't touch'
Brilliant... bit difficult to sell to people though when 'I' have a lot and 'You' have nothing. By the way Edwina... where is my Pension? Someone seems to have taken some of it. One rule for the rich, one for the poor.
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Comment number 512.
watershed9th August 2011 - 10:14
505
Up2snuff
I trust your second catgeory only refers to those journos and police who have broken the law and excludes those who are doing a responsible job.
Assuming this, I can exclude myself from your list which seems to cover many of those whose moral compass appears to be entirely lacking. Not so different really from the rioters although the latter do not wear suuits.
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Comment number 511.
Reticent_Trader9th August 2011 - 9:53
Have you seen the shock and awe on the face of Theresa May?
It is only now dawning on the establishment the power of these people. They have run rings around the met. Utterly.
I think we will soon see various fig leaves given out. Lets see what happens to the EMS.
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Comment number 510.
Reticent_Trader9th August 2011 - 9:51
These yoof are inadvertently doing what 13 years of Labour government, trades unions, peaceful demonstrators and other bien pensants and that is provide the check and balance to 30 years of neoliberalism.
Neoliberal solutions do not solve the faults of neoliberalism.
These kids have no future and they know it. No place in the No Country for Young Men.
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Comments 5 of 514