More time to argue about Greece

 
Masked demonstrators and riot police clash near the Greek parliament in Athens The battle over Greece is being waged on more than one front

The Greek government might be living on borrowed time, but European finance ministers have just borrowed a bit more. As I said on the Today programme this morning, the IMF has blinked in the battle over how - and when - to agree a second European rescue package for Greece.

Assuming that some form of Greek government emerges out of the political discussions now under way in Athens, it is now almost certain that Greece will get the official money it needs to stay above water a few more weeks, notably the next tranche of last year's EU-IMF bailout.

All the eurozone ministers have to do is agree in principle to fill the funding gap in the Greek economic programme, which they will now do on Sunday.

The trouble is, they have always agreed on the principle: indeed, the only thing that France, Germany and the ECB can agree is that a second support programme for Greece is essential. Rightly or wrongly, they are united in the belief that letting Greece go it alone would be a catastrophe - for Greece and for the eurozone.

Where they disagree is on the form that support should take and - as I have discussed many times here - the role of the private sector. By refusing to disburse the next 12bn-euro tranche of last year's 110bn-euro bailout, the Fund had hoped to force eurozone ministers' hands. It hasn't worked. As was made abundantly clear by their special meeting on Tuesday, Germany is sticking to its guns.

There have been wobbles in the past few weeks, but in public, at least, the German finance minister is just as adamant today as he was four weeks ago that the deal needs to force private bondholders to do something which they would not otherwise choose to do.

That is his test of private sector involvement: that private institutions and investors hold a greater quantity of Greek bonds, for longer, over the next few years than they would otherwise have done.

Unfortunately, that is very close to the ECB's - and the ratings agencies' - definition of a "selective default", for which Greek banks would be quickly and decisively punished. The more you offer the private sector "incentives" to roll over debt or extend its maturity, the less voluntary it becomes.

As the European Commission pointed out this week in a private paper revealed by the FT, if the new rescue package did trigger a "selective default" and lock Greek banks out of ECB funding, Greece would then need additional official support, to shore up their banks. In other words, "involving the private sector" in the rescue could end up forcing even greater costs on European governments, which you might think rather undermined the point of the entire exercise.

In theory, there is a a very small amount of space between the German definition of private sector involvement and the ECB's - and the French - definition of selective default. But it's proving devilishly hard to find. So hard that - as the European Commissioner Olli Rehn confirmed this morning - there is now little chance of them reaching an agreement before next week's Ecofin meeting.

All they will agree on Sunday and Monday, with great fanfare, is that a second support programme will go ahead. Bondholders will have to wait until the next meeting, in early July, to find out whether and to what extent that programme will involve them.

 
Stephanie Flanders Article written by Stephanie Flanders Stephanie Flanders Former economics editor

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  • rate this
    +18

    Comment number 2.


    As we have been saying for some time now, the only way out of this catastrophe for Greece (and possibly others) is simple:

    D-E-F-A-U-L-T

    It is time the wealthy investors took the hit they should have taken three years ago, before asking the taxpayer to cover their bad debts.

  • rate this
    +15

    Comment number 5.

    Surely no private investor in their right mind is going to get involved in financing Greek debt, however attractive the terms appear..?
    Isn't this now becoming a slow motion train crash..?

  • rate this
    +12

    Comment number 6.

    This is still all about banks. French, German and more than ever the ECB itself as it now holds ridiculous amounts of Greek (and Portuguese, Irish etc) bonds.
    An insolvent ECB would be (or is?) an embarrassment.

  • rate this
    +11

    Comment number 51.

    The real reason that the European Central Bank is against many of these measures is shown below.

    "As to debt restructuring the Euro zone has by a combination of incompetence and dithering got itself into a position where a lot of the restructuring would take place on the books of the European Central Bank!"
    http://t.co/YaDcx0R

    It wants to avoid having to admit its expensive mistakes ..

  • rate this
    +11

    Comment number 55.

    What you are seeing now is a European public that has finally grasped the fact that they have been used as the guarantors to protect the banks and their investors from their own gambling losses! The banking sector of the troubled countries will receive no more support from the people of Europe. If the EU pushes bailout 2........the people will push it right back down their throat!
    "Game Over"

 

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