US election: A vote for the status quo

 
President Obama acknowledging the crowds at his victory speech in Chicago

After the longest and most expensive election campaign any democracy has ever seen, President Barack Obama was re-elected, albeit by a narrower margin than he received four years ago.

Despite America's weak economy, high unemployment and partisan rancour, voters returned incumbents to office in the White House and Congress, kept the same the balance of party power in Congress, and squarely embraced the status quo.

President Obama won re-election with unemployment at 7.9% - the highest any incumbent seeking re-election has faced since Franklin D Roosevelt.

And no incumbent since Roosevelt has held onto office amidst such a bad economy - not Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter or George Bush Sr.

Bucking the tides of history, however, is not the same as earning the kind of mandate that will intimidate the opposition party.

The final popular vote is not in yet, but it appears Mr Obama will have just a minute margin over Mr Romney.

The president will again face a Republican House of Representatives, though he will have a few more Democratic senators to help him.

332
Barack Obama
206
Mitt Romney
  • California 55
  • Colorado 9
  • Connecticut 7
  • District of Colombria 3
  • Delaware 3
  • Florida 29
  • Hawaii 4
  • Iowa 6
  • Illinois 20
  • Massachusetts 11
  • Maryland 10
  • Maine 4
  • Michigan 16
  • Minnesota 10
  • Nebraska 0
  • New Hampshire 4
  • New Jersey 14
  • New Mexico 5
  • Nevada 6
  • New York 29
  • Ohio 18
  • Oregon 7
  • Pennsylvania 20
  • Rhode Island 4
  • Virginia 13
  • Vermont 3
  • Washington 12
  • Wisconsin 10
  • Alaska 3
  • Alabama 9
  • Arkansas 6
  • Arizona 11
  • Georgia 16
  • Idaho 4
  • Indiana 11
  • Kansas 6
  • Kentucky 8
  • Louisiana 8
  • Maine 0
  • Missouri 10
  • Mississippi 6
  • Montana 3
  • North Carolina 15
  • North Dakota 3
  • Nebraska 5
  • Oklahoma 7
  • South Carolina 9
  • South Dakota 3
  • Tennessee 11
  • Texas 38
  • Utah 6
  • West Virginia 5
  • Wyoming 3

Gridlock and intense partisanship may well be part of the status quo that endures in President Obama's second term.

That will depend partly on how the Republicans in Congress read the election results.

Will they see a weakened president, who squeaked through, and thus carry on with their aggressive, uncompromising opposition?

Or will Republicans be more concerned with their own losses and steer toward a more traditional, conciliatory and co-operative posture in Congress?

Their internal battles between party factions will be as intense as the campaign that just finished.

The Obama White House faces a similar strategic choice, but with a more united party behind him.

A "fiscal cliff" is looming - a difficult coincidence of expiring tax breaks and federal spending cuts.

Will the president spend his freshly-earned political capital trying to navigate a grand compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff" and work for negotiated, bi-partisan legislation to govern the country's debt, deficit and spending laws over the next several years?

A delighted Obama supporter watches the results in New York

Or will the White House take a more piecemeal approach, negotiating something small-bore to deal with the "fiscal cliff" elements, but not a grander fiscal blueprint?

A second term does ensure that the hallmark achievement of Mr Obama's first term - Obamacare - will not be repealed.

To the contrary, the president will have four years to tinker with the programme, improve it and institutionalise it.

The success of his healthcare reform programme may not have been an obvious asset in the 2012 campaign, but it is likely to be an enduring accomplishment of his presidency.

Mr Obama will also have the opportunity to influence the Supreme Court long after he leaves office.

The key there is Justice Anthony Kennedy, 75, a Republican appointee who has been the key swing vote on the court. If Justice Kennedy retires, Mr Obama will be able to make an appointment that could give liberals - or at least judges appointed by Democrats - a majority on the court for a decade or more.

Start Quote

The negativity and lying that marked this campaign wasn't a new low for American politics. It was a very old-style low, but with new volume”

End Quote
Foreign challenges

It is unlikely there will be any major course changes on foreign policy. Anti-terrorism will remain the highest of priorities, the military draw-down in Afghanistan will continue, and there are no indications of a more interventionist policy in Syria.

Barring a strike by Israel on Iran, the US seems set to continue its policy of sanctions and international pressure.

The fate of other issues potentially high on Mr Obama's second term agenda is more unpredictable.

The administration could well make the contentious issues of immigration reform, climate change and financial regulation priorities, for example.

And Republicans could fight Democratic initiatives with all their might.

"There's nothing in the closeness of the popular vote or the minimal change in House seats that would suggest the Republicans will feel any need to alter their oppositional stance," said Stanford University political scientist Morris Fiorina.

Or they could change course and join hands.

If there is any impetus for a spasm of Republican bipartisanship, it could come from a reading of the exit polls and demographic trends.

Women once again voted heavily for Mr Obama by a margin of 55% to 43%. The female tilt toward the Democrats is now deeply etched in presidential elections.

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan campaigning together with fireworks going off behind them They fought a hard campaign, but there were no fireworks on the night

Non-white voters broke for Mr Obama overwhelmingly. And that population is growing by roughly 2% every four years; the white population is shrinking by roughly 2% every four years.

"The demographics race we're losing badly," Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told The Washington Post this summer, in a moment of candour. "We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long-term," he said.

Republican shift to right

The Republican Party has deep and emotional divisions, as the Democrats did throughout the 1970s and 1980s.

The Tea Party might have lost some supporters in the House, but they remain potent in the party's primaries, driving the Republicans to the right. The few remaining self-described moderate Republicans have left the Senate, so that centrist pull is gone.

Start Quote

No-one is fair to President Obama... But his innate ability justifies that high standard”

End Quote David Brooks Columnist

Republicans are not without advantages. They remain the party of business and raise more money than Democrats.

And Republicans again did better with white voters - the biggest block on the board. They have an attractive, younger group of politicians with some national reputation, led by Mitt Romney's running mate, Paul Ryan.

As for Mr Romney, his campaign was methodically organised and well-financed, but he never quite overcame the perception that he was an opportunist without principled political spine.

His own spokesman seemed to prove that point after the primaries, where Mr Romney ran as a hard conservative.

"Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign," Eric Fehrnstrom said. "Everything changes. It's almost like an etch-a-sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all over again."

The etch-a-sketching didn't work. The image of Mr Romney as an extremely wealthy man out of touch with real life in America hardened after a recording emerged of him saying 47% of Americans were, in essence, freeloaders.

On election day, the 72% of voters who earn less than $100,000 a year (£60,000) decisively rejected Mr Romney.

Obama at a campaign rally in Denver in August 2012, with a big banner saying "women's health security" Obama will get a chance to defend, even tinker with, his healthcare programme

His ads and his stump speech were infamous - even by the low standards of modern American campaigns - for stretching, or ignoring, the truth. "We're not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers," said Neil Newhouse, a Romney pollster. They didn't.

Dollar-fuelled politics

Tough campaigns lead to calls for tough political reforms. And 2012 was a very tough campaign, partly because of its length and the money involved - an estimated $2.6bn (£1.6bn) - mostly spent on TV ads.

Within days of the 2010 mid-term elections, presidential campaigns commenced.

Then an important Supreme Court removed almost all remaining limits on campaign fundraising and spending. Voters were bombarded by TV ads, robo-calls and social media messages, for months and months.

The tenor and tone of political propaganda this year fit the early years of the country, when parties and partisans controlled the newspapers and pamphleteers.

Start Quote

Free of the burden of facing re-election, Mr Obama could be a very different leader in his second term”

End Quote

The negativity and lying that marked this campaign was not a new low for American politics. It was a very old-style low, but with new volume, thanks to new technology - and billions of dollars.

There will certainly be a move for election reform. It will be interesting to see if President Obama leads that effort.

In 2008, Mr Obama was something of a Rorschach test for his supporters - a vessel for hopes, ideals and aspirations. His election as America's first black president was an emotional, prideful moment for the country.

But his first term was dogged by the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression.

Healthcare reform may well be the most consequential legislative action since the Great Society in the 1960s. But voters remain divided over it.

Mr Obama's Republican opponents fought him every step. Throughout the campaign year, Mr Obama appeared to lack the stature his accomplishments might seem to demand.

"No-one is fair to President Obama," the conservative columnist David Brooks wrote last week.

"People grade him against tougher standards than any other politician. But his innate ability justifies that high standard," he said.

Tested and tempered by four years in office, the worst of the economic crisis behind him, and free of the burden of facing re-election, Mr Obama could be a very different leader in his second term.

But the Washington he must operate in is very much unchanged by the results of the 2012 elections.

 

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US Presidential Election 2012

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  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 65.

    I love that quote in the article:

    '' "We're not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers," said Neil Newhouse, a Romney pollster. They didn't. ''

  • rate this
    +4

    Comment number 64.

    For the outside World a relief. For the Republican party realization that they need to move to the left. For the American people the requirement of a third political party. To president Obama, well done Sir !

  • rate this
    -1

    Comment number 63.

    I supported the President; but do not overanalyze: this is not the dawn of a new age; the rural red states have not gone away and do not trust the Democratic Party more than before. ... Americans want our presidents to succeed and President Obama seems to know what he is doing, even if he scares us at times; we will let our bets ride four more years.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 62.

    Just relief, pure relief...

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 61.

    @58 "[on Obama] half of the population did not vote for him remember that"

    Nothing unusual about that. In fact the last president got elected with fewer votes than his opponent, never mind half the population.

  • rate this
    -3

    Comment number 60.

    Obama won..hurry up and give him another Nobel peace prize...

    I loved how he was so proudly saying in presidential debates that while he was in-charge the military spending has increased each year (while the unemployment has increased), so why was Mitts idea of increasing military budget so alien to him? They both have same policies and doubt we are going to see any changes for better in future.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 59.

    A voting Yank here - I admit the last four presidential elections have been a bit too disputed for my taste, but this is not at all historically unusual (Google the 1800 presidential election). That said, voter turnout was high, rivaling 2008 levels, which is all one can ask for. The people have spoken. Like it or not, Americans have Barack Obama as our commander-in-chief for four more years.

  • rate this
    -7

    Comment number 58.

    Well all those white buisness folk who will now feel alienated and threatened by Obama and his socialist crew are more than welcome to relocate to the UK. Obama has divided America on racial and class grounds, half of the population did not vote for him remember that and that is the half that creates the jobs. He just doesn't have it in him to be a one nation president, as time will no doubt tell.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 57.

    The rhetoric from Romney esp was amazing. He could say anything and the adoring crowds cheered and whooped everything he said even if it was blatantly wrong. How are people so gullible to accept everything, just because it sounded good to them, as I said even if it was a downright lie? Romney couldve said Obama was the devil, the crowd would cheer. You want the devil to be President ? Whoop whoop!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 56.

    You have a spelling error - should be led not lead
    Dollar-fuelled politics
    Tough campaigns lead to calls for tough political reforms

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 55.

    As an outsider I cant understand the hysteria surrounding the result. Romneys pple crying uncontrollably as if their child has just died, Obamas groupies celebrating with looks on their faces reminiscent of sect members adulating their guru. Your preference either wins or loses, ultimately you wont get much in return so why this hysteria? Why taunt your fellow Americans if they voted Romney etc?

  • rate this
    +15

    Comment number 54.

    It's a sad result for the party of Lincoln, Eisenhower and many achievements. But they only have themselves to blame. In the mid-90's they abandoned the middle road, and instead chose for bigotry, shortsightedness and outright incompetence. Now they have lost all credibility overseas, as shown by Romney's miserable foreign poll numbers. Obama has won for the USA, and the world!

  • rate this
    -2

    Comment number 53.

    As much as I wanted President Obama to win, just a little of me wanted Romney to win, 4 years of comedy gold, and the possibility he would have run the USA train into the buffers, though a humiliated USA is probably a dangerous one.

    "The Best Government Money Can Buy, The USA"

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 52.

    The GOP has spent years painting itself into a corner by antagonising "fiscally conservative but socially liberal" voters.
    Now any substantial move away from the right runs the risk of losing the ultra-conservatives to a third (Tea?) party.
    Their quandary now is whether the potential gains of moderate centrists are enough to compensate and so marginalise the extremists.

  • rate this
    -5

    Comment number 51.

    Perhaps now we can get back to UK news that isn't dominated by presidential elections.

    Next time BBC, just tell me the result please.

  • rate this
    +5

    Comment number 50.

    I support Obama but to all those saying that this was a thrashing for the right: it wasn't. No matter what the electoral college outcome says, the popular vote is very close, with only a 2% difference. It is that which reflects the mood of this society. There is a great deal of work to be done to try to bring the country together.

  • rate this
    +2

    Comment number 49.

    No - it was a thorough repudiation of Republican party platform. People don't think Romney should be paying 12% in tax, that corporations are people, that people should be denied good medical treatment. We were also sick of increased defense spending and the faux concern about the national debt and deficit. Socially they are way out of step with most women. The Republicans are done!

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 48.

    The US of the last few years is the most polarised since the 1960's. The elections are increasingly showing the split all too starkly .... its not clear how all this will play out in the long run, but it can't be good for the US to find itself politically paralysed for years and years.

  • rate this
    +3

    Comment number 47.

    7.Shroppie Lad
    The Republicans also need to suck it up and do the right thing - instead of blocking Barry's proposals every time just because he's a Democrat (or any other reason...) they need to get behind him for the good of their own nation. The people want the best deal but the Republicans have prevented that for the past 4 years, hopefully the next 4 wont be as bad. I wont hold my breath

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 46.

    I find gridlock extremely frustrating on healthcare, energy policy, education, and any number of other things but when it comes to the fiscal cliff I have hope we will go over the fiscal cliff. If Congress refuses to compromise, automatic measures to tackle our monster debt will finally kick in, and that is so much more important than the short term economic repercussions of austerity.

 

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