Places Features

Richard Heinberg, an international expert, has been in Leicester with a mission. He wants to impress us that as the oil runs out each and every one of us will feel the impact.

But each and every one of us can do something about it.

"The USA used to be the world’s foremost exporter. Its oil production peaked in 1970. Now it imports two thirds of what it uses."

Listen: Oil Expert

BBC Leicester's Tony Wadsworth spoke to the international authority about the subject. Listen to what Richard had to say...

Richard came to the city to talk to local authority officers about the Transition Movement which, on a local basis, is attempting address the impact of global warming and decreasing oil supplies. He describes Transition as "a bottom-up movement to wean us off fossil fuels."

If we don't act now he foresees "unprecedented political, social and economic impacts".

Communities that embrace the Transition idea use its website as a focal point in implementing initiatives.

Big Question

According to the site, "A transition initiative is a community working together to look Peak Oil and Climate Change squarely in the eye."

The big question for participating communities is: "For all those aspects of life that this community needs in order to sustain itself and thrive, how do we significantly increase resilience (to mitigate the effects of Peak Oil) and drastically reduce carbon emissions (to mitigate the effects of Climate Change)?"

The site contains all sorts of advice for activists and interested parties to get their teeth into.

In common with many other towns and cities around the country Leicester is interested in the ideas of Transition.

Richard says the outlook is pretty bleak if we don't start to do things now.

"North Sea oil peaked in 1999 and since then the North Sea oil production has declined by about half. Every year there are fewer oil exporters, more importers."

But what is the effect of this on ordinary people? Richard is in no doubt.

"It affects all of us... Prices have sky-rocketed. $100 a barrel would have been inconceivable a few years ago."

Can it go any higher?

"Absolutely! If demand continues to go up and supply doesn't the market will sort it out. Prices will rise inevitably.

"The amount available on the global export market could dry up very soon because all the oil exporting countries are increasingly oil consuming countries... countries like Russia, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

"These are the very countries where oil consumption is going up. The reason is that as the price of oil goes up their economies expand and when economies expand people start buying more cars and driving them.

"The result is that they use more of their own domestic production so there is less for export."

Richard is concerned that the implications of all this are not being properly thought through.

No Plan B

"About 95% of global transport is reliant on oil... We really haven't thought this through. There isn't a Plan B. It is not as though the industrial societies have other forms of fuel waiting in the wings."

Richard says: "The likely date of oil production peak is 2011. That is not far away!"

He is sceptical about bio-fuel. Food prices are rising rapidly because fuel crops are replacing food crops.

"Why," he asks "should many starve so that few thousand can drive cars?"