The
longer range computer models are beginning to give us some indication
of whether the current odds on a White Christmas are worth a
gamble.
 |
| Richard
Angwin |
At
any other time of the year, mention of the 's' word is enough to
cause panic. But when snow threatens to fall on Christmas Day the
excitement is almost tangible.
For
some, part of that excitement is the propect of beating the bookmakers
and collecting a White Christmas bonus.
Computer
model
With
Christmas Day now less than three weeks away the longer range computer
models are beginning to give us some indication of whether the current
odds on a White Christmas are worth a gamble.
The
fact that odds on offer have slipped from 7/2 to 4/1 show that punters
are reluctant to part with their cash as the temperatures show no
real sign of a marked fall.
Predictions
would suggest that, in this case, a cautious punter is a wise punter.
Most forecasts suggest that the mild weather will continue over
the Christmas period with the prevailing winds from the southwest.
Small
wager
Whilst
it is quite possible that the predictions will change nearer the
time it might be wise to wait for the odds to slip to 5/1 or even
6/1 before making a small wager.
Even
if the weather is mild in the week before Christmas, there is still
a chance that the odd flake of snow will fall if temperatures are
slightly below what is currently predicted.
Modern
Myth
The
idea of a White Christmas is a modern myth which has its roots
in the romanticism of the Victorian Age.
|
| Richard
Angwin |
The
idea of a White Christmas is a modern myth which has its roots in
the romanticism of the Victorian Age. Snowy Christmases were a feature
of our weather during the 'Little Ice Age' which lasted from about
1550 to 1850.
Today
snow is most likely to occur in February, March and even April,
when the temperature of the sea around our coast is at its lowest.
Generous
Christmas
snow in Gloucestershire occurs about once every ten years. So any
odds offered of less 9/1 or 10/1 would not be particularly generous.
by
Richard Angwin
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