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Should
we give up hope of seeing any snow for another year? And do we have
unrealistic expectations for winter?
It
is an undeniable fact that our weather has been getting warmer.
Even leaving aside the phenomenon of global warming, our climate
has undergone some big changes.
From
about the middle of the 15th century until the middle of the 19th
century we were in the grips of what became known as 'the Little
Ice Age'.
The
famous Ice Fairs on the River Thames were a regular occurrence in
Victorian London.
The
warming of our weather began during the latter half of the 19th
century. That warming has accelerated in the last 100 years since
the burning of fossil fuels began in earnest during the Industrial
Revolution.
Click
on the link below for pictures of Gloucestershire's snowiest winters
Here
in Gloucestershire we have continuous records beginning around the
end of the 19th century, although official records are only available
from 1937 onwards. And what
these show is that cold and frosty winters are very few and far
between.
Mild winters, it would seem, are here to stay. |
| Richard
Angwin |
The
coldest winter on record was that of 1962-63 when the average temperature
throughout the three months of December, January and February was
0° Celsius - compare this with the winter of 2002-03 which had an
average temperature of 6° C.
Looking
back through the records only 1946/7 (1.5° C) and 1978/9 (2.5° C)
could be classified as 'cold' although the winter of 1981/2 saw
some very cold weather with record lows in January
(-20.1° C in Cheltenham).
So
let us be generous and say that there have been four cold winters
in the last 65-plus years.
That
makes a pretty slim chance of this or any winter in the next five
years being cold.
Almost
every winter throws up at least one 'cold snap' but ask any farmer
or gardener about changes in weather patterns over the last 20 to
30 years and they are sure to mention the decrease in severe and
prolonged frosts.
Mild
winters, it would seem, are here to stay.
By
Richard Angwin
If
you would like to comment on this or any other story in this section get in
touch at gloucestershire@bbc.co.uk
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