March 17: Running Order Revealed

Katrina and the Waves also performed towards the end of the show in 1997.

The sun is shining brightly this morning on the BBC Eurovision HQ and we've all arrived at work in a very good mood indeed. The reason? Yesterday afternoon, the running order for the Eurovision 2009 final was drawn and it turns out the UK will be performing 23rd out of the 25 acts. This is the first time since Katrina and the Waves stormed their way to victory for the UK in 1997 that we are amongst the last three performers in the competition, which can only be a good sign!

So what does this mean for Jade? Many Eurovision fans and commentators believe the position you get picked in the running order can impact on the votes you get from other countries. The theory is that the closer you play to the end of the contest, the higher your chances of winning - the last few songs are more likely to be remembered by casual voters when it comes to making their mind up who to vote for. In fact, the lucky countries who won 'Wildcards' to pick their own placings in the running order almost all chose to appear near the end of their semi-finals.

Well we thought we'd do some investigating into whether or not this theory holds water. Statistically, just twice since 1997 has the winner of the contest been in the last three to play, indeed only four times in twelve years has the overall winner been in the last five. However, it certainly is true that being in the second half of the draw is a big advantage. Between 1997 and 2008, only three songs (25% of the total) appearing in the first half of the show have gone on to win:

WINNING SONGS, 1997 - 2008

• 1997 - Katrina and the Waves (UK) - 24th out of 25 acts
• 1998 - Dana International (Israel) - 8th out of 25 acts
• 2000 - Olson Brothers (Denmark) - 14th out of 24
• 2001 - Tanel Padar, Dave Benson & 2XL (Estonia) - 20th out of 23
• 2002 - Marie N (Latvia) - 23rd out of 24
• 2003 - Sertab Eraner (Turkey) - 4th out of 26
• 2004 - Ruslana (Ukraine) - 10th out of 24
• 2005 - Helena Paparizou (Greece) - 19th out of 24
• 2006 - Lordi (Finland) - 17th out of 24
• 2007 - Marija Serifovic (Serbia) - 17th out of 24
• 2008 - Dima Bilan (Russia) - 24th out of 25

But does recent voting history give the UK an advantage when it comes to appearing near the end of the running order? Well, as we've tended to do spectacularly badly throughout pretty much the whole of the past decade, it's rather hard to tell! Here's a list of the UK's acts, how well they did, and the place they had in the running order:

UK ENTRIES, 1997 - 2008

• 1997 - Katrina and the Waves (WINNERS!) - 24th out of 25 acts
• 1998 - Imaani (2nd place) - 16th out of 25 acts
• 1999 - Precious (12th place) - 5th out of 23 acts
• 2000 - Nicki French (16th place) - 3rd out of 24 acts
• 2001 - Lindsay (15th place) - 16th out of 23 acts
• 2002 - Jessica Garlick (3rd place) - 2nd out of 24 acts
• 2003 - Jemini (26th place - last, nul points) - 15th out of 26 acts
• 2004 - James Fox (16th place) - 15th out of 25 acts
• 2005 - Javine (22nd place) - 2nd out of 24 acts
• 2006 - Daz Sampson (19th place) - 15th out of 24 acts
• 2007 - Scooch (23rd place) - 18th out of 24 acts
• 2008 - Andy Abraham (25th place - equal last) - 2nd out of 25 acts
• 2009 - Jade (???) - 23rd out of 25 acts

So what does this tell us? Well in recent years, the UK seems to have done badly no matter where in the running order we've been placed. But has that been due to political voting (does it really exist?), unfavourable placings in the running order (Andy Abraham, Javine), or due to the quality of the song and performance (Scooch, Jemini)? Let's hope that Jade's position near the end of the Grand Final will help her to win enough votes to claim a well-deserved UK victory this year!