 Weather
Wisdom
by James McDonald
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Let’s get one thing straight - weather sayings aren’t superstition.
They’re based on observation of the weather, perhaps over many generations,
then passed from parent to child, often in the form of a rhyme to
make them more memorable.
Many of them you might have already heard - some are just plain odd!
Some, like ‘Red sky at night shepherd’s delight’ give
us a short term forecast. But others, often based on observing plants
and animals, claim to offer longer term predictions.
Can we really predict how harsh the coming winter will be by these
sayings? A popular saying revolves around ice on duck ponds: "Frost
in November to hold a duck The rest of the winter is slush and muck."
Many people swear by this saying. Noel Adams from Cannock says he
worked outdoors for much of his life and this often proved to be true.
"Ash before Oak, we’re in for a soak Oak before Ash, we’re
in for a splash." This saying suggests if the leaves
on the ash tree appear first, it will be a wet summer. If the oak
comes first, a dry summer.
In 1998 the ash did come out first, and yes, there was a lot of rain.
But this year the ash also came into leaf before the oak, but it was
a dry summer! So it seems this particular saying is perhaps less reliable.
Another saying suggests that a mild December precedes a cold snap
later in the winter: "A green December fills the graveyard"
October seems to be a month bursting with weather sayings. Many of
the predictions are based around birds. Field fares and redwings seen
in the fields during October forecast a hard winter. Some people say
if the squirrel has a bushy tail, or horses have a thick coat in autumn
it will be a hard winter However, all mammals have thicker coats in
preparation for the winter, and the thickness of a horse’s coat seems
to be more dependent on its age than forecasting the weather!
For each fog during October there will be a snowfall during the winter.
Can’t see any meteorological reason for this one, but some people
claim its true!
 A
good crop of berries forecast a hard winter. This is a common saying
and certainly many people claim its true. But Harry Green from the
Worcestershire Wildlife Trust doesn’t see how this could be possible,
as the amount of berries on a bush or tree depends on weather conditions
during the previous spring.
Some sayings though may hold more truth according to John Kings, a
meteorologist at the University of Birmingham. The saying ‘Hot
Summer, Cold Winter’ suggests that a particularly warm summer
will be followed by a harsh winter. Weather statistics for the past
150 years do lend some credibility to this saying, particularly the
1920s when a series of hot summers were followed by arctic conditions
through the winters.
And how about this rhyme from Keith Hall in Oldbury?"If
in summer the grass grows long then come the autumn the winds will
be strong." Well, this year had a hot summer, and yes,
for one week in October it was quite breezy!
 The
moon also has its share of weather predictions.
A halo around the moon forecasts bad weather - this could be true
as high cirrus cloud would create a halo and precede the build up
of thicker cloud.
A less likely saying suggests that if the moon turns on a weekend,
there will be floods before the month is out. As a full moon is due
on 9th November 2003 we shall soon be able to put this to the test!
The conclusion is to take some of these sayings with a large pinch
of salt, but others might just have a grain of truth in them! |
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