The BBC's West Midlands political region runs north to south up the Welsh border taking in Hereford and Worcester, and Shropshire and on the eastern side from Warwickshire up to Staffordshire. At the heart of the region is the West Midlands conurbation with Birmingham at its centre.
Viewed as a crucial battleground between Labour and the Conservatives in past general elections, the region is not quite as key to Labour as in 1992, having six of the 57 seats Labour must gain if they are to win an overall majority, compared to the East Midlands where there are eight. However, the West Midlands contains a higher proportion of the skilled working classes - many of whom defected to the Conservatives during the 1980s - and so trends in this region will still be watched closely by political commentators. Indeed the West Midlands more than any other English region is a barometer for the nation. Its mix of rural and inner city constituencies provides a thorough testing ground for policy and as the manufacturing heart of Britain its industrial fortunes are an index of economic performance.
The stereotype of Tory shire counties and Labour industrial heartlands is very much in evidence in the West Midlands. The urban and manufacturing seats in the east of the region around Birmingham, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Coventry and Walsall form the mainstay of Labour's support, whilst the western shire counties are a sea of blue. The Liberal Democrats are very weak in the region and their main area of support is in Hereford, where they now control the council.
Throughout the Thatcher years Labour tried in vain to unseat Tories in urban marginals, but in 1992 took all but one of its target seats. If it is to deliver the five per cent swing Tony Blair needs for a working Commons majority though it will need to make deep inroads into the shire counties and the commuter belt.
Whilst the net effect of the boundary changes to West Midlands seats has left Labour down one and the Conservatives up two, the review has not been as bad for Labour as it would initially seem. Although the party has seen two seats disappear through boundary revisions, the new drafting of Staffordshire Moorlands changes it from Conservative to Labour. The boundary review has also made some seats good prospects for Labour such as Halesown & Rowley Regis. The realignment of the two Dudley seats has made them both notionally Labour, and the concentration of Coventry into three instead of four seats gives Labour a much better chance of winning the Tory Coventry South.
In view of the changes made to West Midlands' constituencies some Conservatives have chosen to abandon their seats in favour of bigger majorities elsewhere, in what Labour has dubbed the "chicken-run". Peter Luff has decided against staying with the majority of his constituents in Worcester with its slimmed down majority of three thousand (Labour need a swing of 2.8% to gain) and has opted instead for the healthier 14,500 majority in Mid Worcester (Lib Dems need a swing of 14.4% to gain), displacing Education minister Eric Forth in the process. However, Mr Forth has secured the nomination for the much safer seat of Bromley and Chislehurst in South London. Euro-sceptic in chief Bill Cash is also on the move in 1997 from slightly marginal Stafford (78th Labour target 6.6% to gain) to the adjacent seat of Stone (15,079 majority).
Peter Luff's decision to vacate Worcester follows the seat's concentration on the town, losing its rural hinterland and 14% of the electorate to other seats. The effect has been to halve the Tory majority representing the best chance Labour has had to win the seat.
From this revision has been born "Worcester woman" the new 'Essex man' for political pundits. Essentially dreamed up by Tory party analysts she is a C1 or C2, 35-44 year old wife of a skilled tradesman who earns around £18,000. She voted Tory, wooed by Mrs Thatcher's policies, but is tempted by Blair this time around and is the type of voter Conservative Central Office believe could be the decider in 1997.
Another West Midlands seat which is crucial to Blair's chances of viable government is Birmingham Edgbaston. The seat is 67th on Labour's target list (4.97% swing to gain) and if this seat falls to Labour it would not only mark a clean slate for Mr Blair's party in the Birmingham named seats, but also the point at which Labour gainÕs a 21 seat majority.
The full list of Labour's West Midlands target seats needing a 5% swing or under are: Halesown % Rowley Regis (maj 125, no 3, swing needed 0.12%); Coventry South (maj 2,904, no 35, swing needed 2.55%); Worcester (maj 2,947, no 39, swing needed 2.8%); Redditch (maj 3,287, no 44, swing needed 3.4%); Burton (maj 4,127, no 46, swing needed 3.5%); Birmingham Hall Green (maj 3,665, no 51, swing needed 3.9%); Wolverhampton South West (maj 4,966, no 65, swing needed 4.7%); Birmingham Edgbaston (maj 5,056, no 67, swing needed 5%). These target seats are based on the new constituency boundaries and include the notional majorities which are calculated by taking the 1992 General Election results and weighting them according to voting patterns in local elections in wards which are being transferred as part of the review.
Constituencies in this area