By BBC Political Correspondent Carolyn Quinn
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Many grassroots Liberal Democrats, though, abhor the idea of realignment and continue to view Labour as the enemy. Paddy Ashdown insists he is "keeping his options open" and has ruled out the prospect of playing "bridesmaid " to Tony Blair.
However, few observers believe that the fate of the Liberal Democrats is not inextricably linked with that of Labour. The question is whether this provides Paddy Ashdown with his big moment or causes untold damage to the party he has weaned so skillfully from its turbulent post-Alliance birth in 1988. No election has been so crucial for him.
In 1988, the Liberal Democrat coffers were virtually empty and morale was at an all time low. The modern Liberal Democrats are undoubtedly more professional, better strategists and more disciplined. But they know that to have any credibility they have to build on their achievements in the 1992 election, and increase their number of MPs.
On the new boundaries, they are defending 18 seats. In 1992 they got 18% of the vote. Their minimum hope is to increase the number of their MPs to at least 30 or 35. They know they will not form a government but their abiding hope is to have at least the force of numbers to be able to influence policy or win a share of power.
The Campaign Style
In 1992 the Liberal Democrat election campaign was a one-man band - centred around their "action-man" leader. Paddy Ashdown dashed from one end of the country to the other - he even made a trip to northern France. Dick Newby, his press officer at the time, now acknowledges that the political message was often sacrificed for the sake of a good photo-opportunity - Paddy Ashdown at a seal sanctuary in Cornwall was one of the highlights.
This time, Newby says, there will be regional tours but fewer photo stops per day and the politics will be king. There will be limits on the campaign. While Labour and the Conservatives will have between £15-20 million to spend, the Liberal Democrats will be restricted to around £3 million.
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And selling Ashdown's blunt message on the doorstep will be a new, more professional pavement army. No sandals and pullovers this time - like Labour, the Liberal Democrats have recognised the advantage in smartening up. The party's Director of Campaigns, Chris Rennard, says the assault on the 50 target seats is being run with military precision and voters will be told not just the benefits of supporting the Liberal Democrat candidate but also about the tactical ramifications of their vote.
Relations With Labour
During the past year some Labour and Liberal Democrat politicians have spoken of a realignment in British politics with the aim of creating one Centre-Left alliance, marginalising the Labour left wing and shutting the Conservatives out for a generation.
In reality, a great many Labour and Liberal Democrat members still need convincing. The bitterness of the campaign in Littleborough and Saddleworth hardened the attitude of Liberal Democrats like Liz Lynne who have remained opposed to closer links with the Labour party. She and her predecessor as MP for Rochdale, Sir Cyril Smith are among the key agitators in the anti-Labour camp, Sir Cyril being among those calling for a special Liberal Democrat conference after the election to approve or reject any proposed deals with Labour.
In January of this year David Alton, who is standing down as an MP at the election, added his own withering assessment to the debate. In a newspaper article he accused Paddy Ashdown of risking the party's election prospects and independence by encouraging closer links with Labour and holding out for a cabinet seat. He said he feared Paddy Ashdown's judgement had been clouded by his frustration at never being in the centre of power. " It is time he put the interests of his country and party first and those of personal ambition second."
Paddy Ashdown continually denies that any formal deal with Labour has been mapped out. And at times in the run-up to this election there have been times when the channels of communication have run dry. But since Ashdown ruled out the prospect of propping up a Conservative Government by ditching the policy of Equidistance - the concept of staying equally aloof from both Tories and Labour - the question has remained about the price he might exact from Labour for his support.
In a speech in January 1995 Ashdown introduced the concept of "Partnership Politics" - how to repair the damage of the past 17 years of Conservative rule and restore trust in government. He spoke of a culture in British politics in which "parties which are different, distinctive and independent, offer separate choices at the ballot box but are prepared to work together where they agree and they believe it is in the nation's interest to do so". He insisted that he was not talking of pacts or coalitions, but the underlying impression was that he would be prepared to support a Labour government for at least two parliaments.
For the Liberal Democrats, the price of support has traditionally been conditional on the delivery of electoral reform and a commitment by Tony Blair to campaign for a "yes" vote in his promised referendum on Proportional Representation. But in the run-up to the elections, the leadership has at times seemed decidedly flaky on an "all or nothing " approach even though Blair has recently confirmed that he remains unpersuaded of the benefits of PR.
Proportional Representation - The Holy Grail?
Proportional Representation provides a glimmer of hope for a party like the Liberal Democrats which traditionally suffers under the First Past The Post system. They feel they are constantly punished for having an even spread of support. This means they can come a close second, they can increase their share of the vote and the number of votes, but they don't increase their number of parliamentary seats.
But some Liberal Democrats are starting to dissent from the party line - and warn against holding PR up as the Holy Grail. One senior MP said he was concerned that the Liberal Democrats would appear "obsessive" if they rejected a deal on a plate with a weak Labour government and sacrificed the chance for power because they were blinkered into saying "PR or nothing".
Officially, Paddy Ashdown and the party leadership are insistent that if Labour only gets a small majority or if there is a hung Parliament, there would be no formal coalition without a Labour commitment to PR. But that does not rule out regular detailed informal talks with, or informal support for, a Blair Government during its first years in office, with agreement bit by bit on individual pieces of legislation.
Some Liberal Democrats hope that if that government remains weak numerically or troubled by left-wing dissent , this could open the door to greater influence two or three years down the road or even herald cabinet seats for some in the smaller party. Paddy Ashdown denies he is obsessed with "getting my backside onto the seat of a leather Government Daimler", but some anti-coalitionists fear he and other senior members like Menzies Campbell are allowing themselves to get hypnotised by thoughts of ministerial power into compromising their true Liberal Democrat beliefs.
As if to prove he's still his own man, Paddy Ashdown from time to time has lobbed missiles into Labour's camp. At the party's 1996 spring conference in Nottingham he criticised what he called New Labour's "state-sponsored morality" and its desire to reshape Britain in the image of Singapore:
"It starts with community based projects , residents helping older neighbours, the promotion of social cohesion. But it ends by telling people how to live their lives. By limiting freedom of speech. By spot fines for chewing gum and neglecting to pull the lavatory chain. It ends in policies which punish the sinner, but ignore the sin. Policies which have more to say about driving beggars from the streets than housing the homeless and helping the poor ".
At times Liberal Democrats have claimed to be the only real opposition to the Conservatives - voting against tax cuts in the last two budgets and stating clearly their intention to buy back Railtrack after privatisation. The truth is though that despite such side-swipes, it will be difficult for Ashdown to play hard to get or try hard bargaining if, as expected, a new Blair Government were to produce a Queens Speech in favour of devolution, improved education and comparatively pro-European. Many Liberal Democrats realise their potential powerlessness - that Tony Blair would simply defy them to vote against the Queens Speech, stand back and watch them squirm.
Despite the continued suspicion between the two camps Liberal Democrats and Labour have shown they CAN work together successfully in certain areas. In October 1995 they announced joint talks to discuss a common constitutional reform programme, focusing on devolution, reform of the Lords, PR and a bill of rights. Early in 1996 they employed a joint strategy to attack the Government over the controversial Scott report on Arms to Iraq. Outside Westminster, they work together in 19 local councils with joint administrations and joined forces on the Scottish constitutional Convention - though Blair's sudden decision on a referendum on devolution did not involve consultation with Paddy Ashdown.
Besides all this, there is the ever closer relationship between the two leaders, which is said now to extend to invitations to each other's family homes. The two men apparently have a "chemistry" between them. The elements seem to be there for a potential working relationship.
Liberal Democrats - The New Left?
Paddy Ashdown knows his party has to tread carefully. The Liberal Democrats want to sell themselves as a party with relevant policies, more radical on taxation , education and Europe than Labour, but also as a party which is trustworthy, which tells it as it is, the "what you see is what you get" approach to policy.
But in many areas where they've achieved electoral success it has been purely because they ARE an alternative to Labour or the Conservatives. The fear for some now is that their close association with Labour may stop that source of votes and deter disillusioned Tories from voting for them if they suspect a vote for Ashdown equals a vote for Blair in the long run.
Conversely the other concern is that they may be perceived as being more left wing than Labour particularly on taxation and social policy and thus equally lose votes. Many of the voters they need are opposed to high taxes and are socially authoritarian. Liberal Democrats are in favour of earmarked higher taxation and are socially libertarian .
Cleaning Up The Mess In Politics
A popular theme for Paddy Ashdown since the last election has been the concept of "cleaning up the mess in British politics". He speaks, in his book "Beyond Westminster" about the distrust of politicians expressed by many of the people he met on his weekly travels. He hopes that this election result will show that more people than ever are willing to put their trust in him - though deep down most in the party admit that the closest he'll get to government this time is influencing policy, rather than making it.
Paddy Ashdown has long been one of Westminster's characters. His personal story - his marine training and time with the glamorous but secretive special boat squadron - has provoked both admiration and mockery. Rumours abound about Paddy Ashdown's future should the party fail to consolidate or better its position in the centre ground of British politics. His departure from the leadership would be welcomed by some, but throughout most of the party there is a nagging admiration for the way he hauled them up by the bootstraps when they were at their lowest point.
There's no denying though that a great deal is at stake with this election - and for Paddy Ashdown , now the oldest of the party leaders, it could be his last chance to make a breakthrough. Whether he flourishes or not depends, most probably, on the Labour leader and the certain arithmetical carousel that both men will have to jump onto as soon as the election is through.
By BBC Political Correspondent Carolyn Quinn, taken from
"The BBC News General Election Guide", published by Harper Collins, price £5.99