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Why Cameron will win in 2015.

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Messages: 1 - 22 of 22
  • Message 1. 

    Posted by wycombewanderer (U3114853) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    The last two days have been very good news for the conservative party if they use the opportunities now handed to them.

    Firstly the GDP figures alone are of small consequence but as the chancellor stated calmly and matter of factly they are a small step in the right direction.


    They have been almost guaranteed that the coalition or indeed themselves as a minority government will survive until at least until autumn 2014, the reason being the pyhric victory of Salmond winning the right to hold the Scottish referendum at that time.
    Polls in Scotland cobnsistently point to a worsening of the SNP independence share of the vote should a labour government be incumbent at Westminster.
    If the coalition falls then at present and in all likelihood for sometime to come labour would become the party of government at westminster and the slight hopes that Salmond may have will disappear.
    He is now inextricably linked and committed to saving the coalition until at least that time; (I believe he will be toast shortly afterwards either way).
    He also has nothing to lose by abstaining or even voting with the government regarding boundary changes, the SNP stand neither to gain nor lose by any changes likewise Plaid and ulster parties and of course sinn fein do not take their seats so given that, and a likely bit of horsetrading the conservbatives now have a de facto majority, albeit a slim one in the commons.
    The only option if the conservatives were to force through a vote would be for the lib dems to either resign from government to vote against(which would probably include one or two abstentions and possibly one or two defections) the bill or to abstain which as said would allow the bill to pass.
    Therefore the conservatives would gain most from the fairer allocation of votes for seats and remove the current anomly.

    Given that the economy is getting backl on track the stated aims of the coalition to reduce the defict will be largely on course towards the end of 2014, which will coincide with a large rise in the tax take due to higher rate tax payers who have delayed taking income in this financial year to next year when the rate is reduced.
    The chancellor will go into the next election having delivered, albeit by sleight of hand , a crushing blow to labours credibility that higher tax rates produce more revenue and the figures will be there for everyone to see.

    The last and probably most important point however is the shadow chancellor. He is now being mocked openly during interviews aabout his record and his attempts to defend that record are bordering on the absurd.
    He is quite simply a busted flush and I think secretly most labour supporters know his presence is highly toxic.

    Cameron also has the ace up his sleeve that he can also offer a referendum on Europe and will in all likelihood gain from, what may be an ill deserved reputation, for having saved the union.

    There will be some bumps along the way, of course, his stock may rise considerably next week for instance if he vetoes the EU budget proposals,
    So you can forget the pastygates LOL,and train ticket flim flam, the conservatives can and will win in 2015 if they want to.

    Report message1

  • Message 2

    , in reply to message 1.

    Posted by Purbeck (U14810240) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    Thanks for that Wycombe.

    You've put a spring in my step as I embark on another day of boosting the GDP.

    After all, those Dole Boys, now abed, need to be fed.

    Report message2

  • Message 3

    , in reply to message 1.

    Posted by 1984 (U6551334) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    WW,

    Far too early to know what is going to happen.

    "A week is a long time in politics"

    Two and a half years is an eternity. Remember how far Gordon Brown and Labour were behind in the polls in 2007-2008.

    Though I do see the logic you are trying to make your case with. The SNP I think will lose, and from a very small straw poll of the Scottish guys I work with aren't in the slightest bit interested. With no devo max on the ballot paper, Salmonds best hope, then they will vote to stay in.

    The boundries changes which could have helped Cameron to get maybe an extra 20 seats (at best) probably won't go through. The double dealing, principle light Lib Dems have seen to that.

    The economy back on track? Hmmmm far too many global worries to knock that off course. Trying to predict the economy from say the late 1990s to the early 2000s is hard enough. Trying to predict for the next few years in these turbulent times is next to impossible IMO.

    Europe is the wild card. Anyone notice that when Cameron said he would use his veto on the EU budget, and Teresa May said she wanted to repatriate 140 statutes from the EU, the reaction that Clegg and Miliband gave. Not much of anything really, and to me that lack of noise speaks volumes.

    UKIP are likely to do well in the 2014 EP elections, and if Cameron is behind in the polls, or even neck and neck the pressure will be on him. He can not win outright without the UKIP vote. Though even if forced to give a cast iron guarantee that if re-elected a referendum on membership of the EU will be his first bill through parliament may not be enough.

    If the Lib Dems and Labour refuse to offer the same, then they will lose the election. On the quiet Miliband is considering a more eurosceptic tone and they could revert back to their pre 1987 stance on the EU.

    It's going to get interesting, but hard to predict, and when you look at how many governments in other countries have been unseated since the banking crisis started, staying in government is a hard trick to pull off at present.

    Report message3

  • Message 4

    , in reply to message 1.

    Posted by BryanLuc (U12989423) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    This has to be a joke or a WUM
    This government staggers from one U turn to another, they must be the most incompetent of all time
    You only have to look at the opinion polls to see what Joe voter thinks of them
    Amazing, the Tories have been in the doldrums for so long now, they take a glimmer of sunshine to mean a victory at the next election

    Report message4

  • Message 5

    , in reply to message 4.

    Posted by me (U14258191) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    ...and maybe by 2015 education will be so good that we will all be able
    to spell 'Pyrrhic' correctly.

    Report message5

  • Message 6

    , in reply to message 4.

    Posted by malfunction (U1523018) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    As Devon has already pointed out Bryan, a week in politics is a long time. Two and a half years is an eternity.

    Premature chicken counting is a habit common amongst the cocksure.

    Report message6

  • Message 7

    , in reply to message 1.

    Posted by rg (U5314762) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    He is now being mocked openly during interviews aabout his record and his attempts to defend that record are bordering on the absurd.
    He is quite simply a busted flush and I think secretly most labour supporters know his presence is highly toxic.

    Cameron also has the ace up his sleeve that he can also offer a referendum on Europe 

    Balls now seems to say that he didn't know about the structural deficit when he claimed there was no structural deficit. (DP 25/10/12)

    On an EU referendum Labour hinted as recently as last month that they'd offer the electorate an exit opportunity. Update: www.guardian.co.uk/p... "Denis MacShane, urged the party to state now that it would hold a referendum if Labour formed a government after 2015"

    Report message7

  • Message 8

    , in reply to message 7.

    Posted by malfunction (U1523018) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    Balls now seems to say that he didn't know about the structural deficit when he claimed there was no structural deficit. (DP 25/10/12)  I just watched it. What an absolute lemming! Balls has been banged to rights, and this is the comedian who thinks he has the wherewithal to run the economy. He even denies his own quotation.

    God help us should that idiot enter No 11.

    Report message8

  • Message 9

    , in reply to message 6.

    Posted by BryanLuc (U12989423) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    <quote> Premature chicken counting is a habit common amongst the cocksure. </quote>

    Glad you put it like that, summs up the OP precisely

    </quote> As Devon has already pointed out Bryan, a week in politics is a long time. Two and a half years is an eternity </quote>

    Of course your government is doing so well !!
    It hasn't had much success since 2010, Cameron had the chance to make a fresh start with his reshuffle but that turned out to be a no event
    Downhill all the way now for the Tories

    Report message9

  • Message 10

    , in reply to message 9.

    Posted by malfunction (U1523018) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    Downhill all the way now for the Tories  We shall see, Bryan, we shall see. If the recovery continues, and a voter is about to put his 'X' on the ballot paper, thinking that Ed Miliband might become PM, you may find your chicken count to be rather less than you thought it was going to be.

    Report message10

  • Message 11

    , in reply to message 1.

    Posted by Cliff Hanger (U14309141) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    The last and probably most important point however is the shadow chancellor. He is now being mocked openly during interviews aabout his record and his attempts to defend that record are bordering on the absurd. 
    I was on the point of agreeing with this bit until I spotted "shadow" chancellor. Drop that one word and you're spot on.

    Report message11

  • Message 12

    , in reply to message 11.

    Posted by starlilolill (U11601004) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    To the OP - delusional!

    Nothing to add except delusional!

    Report message12

  • Message 13

    , in reply to message 12.

    Posted by wycombewanderer (U3114853) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    Well you certainly got the 'nothing to add'part correct, so no change there!

    Report message13

  • Message 14

    , in reply to message 12.

    Posted by Charley Farley (U7037023) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    To the OP - delusional!

    Nothing to add except delusional! 
    Let's be sure to reference this post at the next election.

    The only way Labour will be able to win is if they ditch Miliband/Balls.

    Can't see that happening though.

    Report message14

  • Message 15

    , in reply to message 1.

    Posted by DragonFluff (U6879248) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    So you'll be moving back here, then, WW?

    Report message15

  • Message 16

    , in reply to message 13.

    Posted by starlilolill (U11601004) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    WW that's right, keep burying that old head of yours in the sand.

    You believe everything the Tory boys tell you without question.
    Many are asking questions about the figures coming out this week, it's a shame you take everything at face value.

    I'll just add here that I'm struggling to believe that Ed Milliband could lead his party to win next time round, but I am convinced that Cameron will certainly not be PM - make of that what you will!

    Report message16

  • Message 17

    , in reply to message 3.

    Posted by wycombewanderer (U3114853) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    Well that kind of confirms that point Devon, whatever the midpoint polls say come voting day the incumbent almost always does better that the polls have suggested.

    1990- 1992 Kinnock had poll leads of up to 26% but Major won the 1992 election,( More's the shame to be honest as Black Wednesday would have occurred no matter who had been in government and any ill deserved reputation they now have for economic competency would never have come about.

    Two and a half years is an eternity. Remember how far Gordon Brown and Labour were behind in the polls in 2007-2008. 

    Report message17

  • Message 18

    , in reply to message 4.

    Posted by londonplug (U13638089) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    This has to be a joke or a WUM
    This government staggers from one U turn to another, they must be the most incompetent of all time
    You only have to look at the opinion polls to see what Joe voter thinks of them
    Amazing, the Tories have been in the doldrums for so long now, they take a glimmer of sunshine to mean a victory at the next election 
    REPLY................. Have to agree with you Bryan on this one, probably for sightly diferent reasons, you no doubt hate the Torys and would like to see Labour back in dictatorship Whereas i find this bunch of liberal globalist hugging hoodie wets an Insult to what used to be a proper Conservative party and would love to see them booted out even if it is by the labour party as much as i hate them

    You never know we might be lucky UKIP may get in

    Report message18

  • Message 19

    , in reply to message 17.

    Posted by 1984 (U6551334) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    1990- 1992 Kinnock had poll leads of up to 26% but Major won the 1992 election 

    Well just as one of Majors best assets was having Kinnock as Labour leader, so too does Cameron in having Miliband as leader.

    Though I still stand by my point that these are very different times. The volitility due to the financial crisis to my mind still means all bets are off.

    More's the shame to be honest as Black Wednesday would have occurred no matter who had been in government and any ill deserved reputation they now have for economic competency would never have come about. 

    True, both Labour and te Lib Dems voted for the ERM.

    Report message19

  • Message 20

    , in reply to message 19.

    Posted by rg (U5314762) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    these are very different times  Times do change though I fail to see how anyone (left, right or centre) can be certain of the outcome of a General Election next week let alone in two and a half years.

    Report message20

  • Message 21

    , in reply to message 9.

    Posted by Ronnie Kissinger (U14241330) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    Downhill all the way now for the Tories 

    So you think they would prefer it to be "uphill all the way"?

    Report message21

  • Message 22

    , in reply to message 15.

    Posted by wycombewanderer (U3114853) on Friday, 26th October 2012

    So you'll be moving back here, then, WW?   Not for the moment but maybe who knows?

    120 days into Holland's presidency, with a socialist majority in parliament and the Croix Rouge have just announced the opening of a food bank in the local town.
    still I suspect it's all Osbornes fault!

    Report message22

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