This week, the Oscars.

I can't hate them. I've tried, really I have. Money and campaigning, I tell myself. All that “It's an honour just to be nominated” and “Above all I'd like to thank the caterers”. What lies. Fake smiles, fake kisses. Even the carpet's not all that red. But damn it, they’re the Oscars. So, herewith, after a mighty prizefight between the inner cynic and the inner optimist, are Tinseltown's 2004 Oscar predictions...

Best Actor: Bill Murray for Lost In Translation. He's wry, he's aloof, he feuds with pretty girls like Lucy Liu. And he made a throwaway comedy like Groundhog Day into an existential exegesis. There might be some competition from Sean Penn but - although he's an amazing actor who manages to be attractive despite his, well, ugliness – I think Hollywood finds him a bit self-righteous and annoying. And I just can't forgive him for I Am Sam.

Best Actress: Charlize Theron for Monster. She's a 10ft tall stunner who gained weight, made her hair greasy and shared lesbian kisses with Christina Ricci - all things The Academy loves. There might be a small contingent who insist on giving Diane Keaton the sympathy vote, but Theron and her disappearing eyebrows will take this one.

Best Supporting Actress: Renée Zellweger for Cold Mountain. Miramax and its hefty top dog, Harvey Weinstein, have spent countless thousands campaigning for this Civil War epic, but it failed to get nominated for any of the top categories. Think of this as a consolation prize. Plus, the voters inexplicably love Zellweger - especially when she's being plucky - and her character Ruby is the very picture of pluck.

Best Supporting Actor: Alec Baldwin for The Cooler. The only other contender in this category is Tim Robbins, but the sheer Godfather-esque coolness of Baldwin's casino-owner character should help him in this category. And there's no danger of his bringing feisty Native Americans to the stage or, even worse, hungry young orphans.

Best Original Screenplay: Sofia Coppola for Lost In Translation. Did you see her at the Golden Globes? She looked about 12, in her sweet little dress and flat little shoes. All melancholy and secretly hip. How can they not give her the Oscar? Besides, Coppola is the first American woman ever to be nominated for Best Director, which she doesn't have a chance of winning.

Best Animated Film: Finding Nemo. Is there even a contest, really?

Best Director/Best Picture: Peter Jackson for The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King. The Oliphants alone should be enough to win Jackson a pair of statuettes. Well, OK, those and the seven years, the cast of thousands and the elves, dwarves, hobbits, orcs and Viggo Mortensen-ish wonder of it all. Do you doubt the juggernaut? Jade Chang 30 January 04

useful link: www.oscars.com