"The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F)......"
"The context for the thesis is related in the Preface:
In 2006, I joined KNMI to work on a project “Tailoring climate information for impact assessments”. I was involved in many projects often in close cooperation with professional users.
In most of my projects, I explicitly or implicitly relied on General Circulation Models (GCM) as the most credible tool to assess climate change for impact assessments. Yet, in the course of time, I became concerned about the dominant role of GCMs. During my almost eight year employment, I have been regularly confronted with large model biases. Virtually in all cases, the model bias appeared larger than the projected climate change, even for mean daily temperature. It was my job to make something ’useful’ and ’usable’ from those biased data. More and more, I started to doubt that the ’climate modelling paradigm’ can provide ’useful’ and ’usable’ quantitative estimates of climate change.,,,,
...Bakker’s closing statement:
"The ’climate modelling paradigm’ is in ’crisis’. It is just a new paradigm we are waiting for."
Science is and always be wondrous, never settled, never exhaustive, provided it is never allowed to be made exclusive..
Contains some info that you may find interesting and hopefully it may supply some confirmation rather than adding more confusion?:-
"The best series, 31, was the (single) run from the inmcm4 model, as I suspected might be the case. That is the CMIP5 model with the lowest climate sensitivity (ECS), and it has a TCR of 1.3 C, in line with good observational estimates. It comes out top at matching the BEST tempereature record as well – see their website."