posted Jul 10, 2008

Have to admit I don't know what will happen today. Can Millar feed off Cavendish's euphoria? I can't see Gerolsteiner allowing Millar to attack early on.

It might be one of those days where teams place the right men in the attack and because they aren't really dangerous, the peloton let them get on with it. The bigger hills are around the corner, and I think people will be saving themselves for that.

Fascinating day in prospect it has to be said.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Speaking of Cav, does he pull out today, if inded all those stories are true?

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posted Jul 10, 2008

I was so annoyed last night. I had the will-power to stay away from the BBC updates from 3:30 yesterday and avoid all sports news until the highlights came on.

But what happened at the climax? My mum wanted to watch Corrie???!!! Damn you Roy Cropper!

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posted Jul 10, 2008

I reckon it will be a quiet day for the gc riders in the fact that a small group that have no overall ambitions may stay away and win the stage. Can't see Millar being a part of that as he's too near the top at the moment even though I can't see him finishing in the top 40 overall.

Da La Fuente is prob not a bad bet for the polka dot as he's contested it before.

If anything will happen with the gc riders, it will be to attack near the summit of the final climb just to show they are strong. They will take seconds not minutes out of their rivals.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Looking forward to watching the highlights tonight, some nice big bumps today. I'd like to see Millar take advantage today, I think realistically it is one of his better chances as his GC position will worry some others will recognise that it is only the first week and with the big bumps to come... Certainly a day for those wishing to wear Polka before the Alps.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

It was great to see Cavendish winning an out and out strong man's sprint. Long, straight, wide road and no excuses, jus the fastest man first to the line. Apart from Malcolm Elliott in the late 80s I can't remember another British rider getting anywhere near winning a pure bunch sprint, can anyone else?

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posted Jul 10, 2008

What's going on. The race starts at 12:02 and by 12:10 - only 8 minutes later we have a breakaway more than 2 minutes ahead. Did anyone check they started with everyone else?

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Millar - no can't see it.
It's been reported for days that he and Vaughters have said they were targetting the Cholet TT and the Super-Besse stage, intending to get him into yellow, so it should be no surprise to the other teams and he's too high on GC for them to let him.
It'll either be one of the true climbers if the stage is contested seriously by the big boys, or another breakaway by some of the little guys from Agritubel, AG2R, Cofidis who aren't seen as a threat to anyone.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Can't see Millar taking yellow to be honest, the stage is pretty mucht ideal for the likes of Kirchen and Schumacher: uphill but nothing too serious.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

The French are loving their long break aways this year.

After missing out on a bunch sprint earlier in the Tour and only just catching the break yesterday surely the peleton will jump on this break?

Valeverde to win today - put a monkey on it!

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Does anyone think that Cadel Evans stands a chance in today's stage? Nice to think that Millar could add to the Brit collection, however I am not convinced he has the team support.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Cav - simply awesome! He didn't just beat them yesterday, he left the other world-class spinters trailing in his wake. Great job by the Columbia Team to put him in precisely the right place at the right time. I could watch it again, and again, and again (oh, I did...).

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Now I'm even more suspicious - the leading group managed to cover 41 km in the first 18 minutes - an average speed of 136 km/hr. They are on motor bikes - surely nobody will catch them today.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

They started at 12h30 local time, which means they've been underway just over an hour.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Kirchen will never be allowed to get away, he has top 5 potential.

The three breakaway riders could easily stay away and Chavenel has possibilities for the polka dot as he can climb when needed and not affect the overall.

Polka Dot chances, ignoring the GC contenders, Sandy Casar, Felix Cardenas (will now be given his head as Soler is out), Manuel Monfort, and possibly Moreau.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Strong Promise's post reminds me, how about suggestions for films with Tour riders names in the title, rather than songs? I'm sure there is a rich seam of amusement to be mined by fellow 606-ers. How about a suggestion from a work colleague of mine to kick things off "The Island of Christoph Moreau"? Cheers Mark!

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posted Jul 10, 2008

OK The race starts at 1202.
At 1230 the riders have already contested the second sprint at 44.5km.
Thats an average speed of 92.7kph.
Somethings wrong here. But what.
Did the race start at 1202 French time and we are now on BST?
Must be.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

> Kirchen will never be allowed to get away, he has top 5 potential. <

Just to be clear, I didn't say he'd get away: I just don't think anyone will be able to shake him here and if they come to the line together Kirchen has the power (along with a Valverde or Cunego) to take the stage.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

On Tuesday cadel evans said he expected to see the GC riders stretch their legs today. I imagine Cadel or Valverde will want to test the likes of Kirchen to see if he has the form of his Tour TT or his Helvetie TT.

Personally, I would love Moreau to take the KoM jersey. He needs to achieve something at the Tour or he'll keep coming back forever. I believe he will be targeting it this year after so many GC disappointments.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

I think Chavenel is going for the polkadot jersey. Very impressed by the french riders this year - always on the attack. Felt sorry for Vogondy yesterday being caught just before the finish - great effort. Valverde to outsprint the leading bunch to win todays stage.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Apols Lowland,

You may have a point re Kirchen winning the stage today if they are all together at the base of the final climb, however I reckon the breakaway group will survive today. Bigger mountains to come that will be where the damage is done.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

This breakaway isn't going to last when they get to the first of the Cat 2 climbs.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

Hopefully Millar can do the business and sneak into yellow today but historically he's always gone backwards in the big mountain stages in any of the grand tours he's done.
His motivation and confidence seems to be a lot higher than it's been for donkeys and that will hopefully make a huge difference to his performance this year.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

It's the sort of stage that Millar could ride well on - past form has shown him to be a decent climber of these medium mountains rather than the really big stuff. Unfortunately you can say pretty much the same for both Schumacher and Kirchen (probably the best proper climber of the 3). So little chance of taking the jersey.

How hard are the climbs at the end? If long draggy climbs then look for a non-threatening rider to break away and win the stage (Devolder, Flecha). If properly steep them perhaps Valverde, Cunego, Ricco might look to gain back a bit of their TT losses relative to Evans - would certainly make it an interesting stage.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

I expect a split in the field at that final Cat 2, and agree that some of the GC lads may well want to flex it and grab a few seconds. You know that Cadel Evans will be going with them - he's not going to give up his current advantage.

I like Moreau to try and start getting some KOM points today, but I also expect Ti-Vo to hang on today - these climbs are not too high for him, and he'll want to hang on to the maillot pois as long as possible.

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