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NFL picks - divisional play-offs

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Phillip Rivers embraces Darren Sproles

Each week during the NFL regular season I’ve been predicting the results of games televised in the UK but we step up a gear this weekend as the best teams in the league join the play-offs in round two.

It’s been a crazy season and my results have suffered as a result - I’ve got 58 correct and 40 wrong.

There may be a little more craziness on Sunday, though, as San Diego and Philadelphia both have the air of fairytale about them.

Last year New York were sparked from an early-season slumber towards Super Bowl glory by a trip to London and a win at Wembley.

In Darren Sproles, the Chargers have the ideal man to deal with defensive aggression
This season, the team that lost at Wembley, the San Diego Chargers, have already gone on a wild ride and I think that may continue for another week as they face the Pittsburgh Steelers at 2145 GMT on Sunday.

No team without a winning record in the regular season has ever reached the Super Bowl (the 1979 LA Rams were the worst with a 9-7 mark) and many argued San Diego should not have progressed with their 8-8 record – despite winning the AFC West division – while the New England Patriots kick their heels at home after winning 11 games from the AFC East.

San Diego made the most of the seeding system, though, and then upset Indianapolis in a wild overtime game last Saturday. A defence that appeared woeful at Wembley bewitched and battered Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, the NFL’s Most Valuable Player.

By comparison to Manning, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is a novice and he has been desperately inconsistent this year, with 15 interceptions to go with his 17 touchdowns.

Pittsburgh have a fearsome defence, which has allowed just 13.9 points per game and evoked comparison to the Steel Curtain units of the 1970s.

In Darren Sproles, who stepped in for the injured LaDainian Tomlinson and gained a massive 328 all-purpose yards against the Colts, the Chargers have the ideal man to deal with defensive aggression, as he runs nippily and can catch short passes from Phillip Rivers neatly, while San Diego’s three physical receivers clear space for him.

I’m backing San Diego to win, possibly by 14 or more.

December held wildly contrasting fortunes for the Eagles and the team they visit at 1800 GMT on Sunday, the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

Philadelphia were written out of the playoffs after week 12, when quarterback Donovan McNabb was benched in a 36-7 loss to Baltimore. McNabb has since returned to form and the Eagles won four of their last five

Runner Brandon Jacobs is back to fitness for New York but the Eagles held the Giants to 88 rushing yards in their last game
Meanwhile the Giants, who started the season with 11 wins against a single loss, dropped three of their last four after losing receiver Plaxico Burress to a season-ending ban for illegal gun possession.

This is the third time this season these two teams have met and, although the Giants won the opener, I believe the week 13 fixture, won by the Eagles with Brian Westbrook rushing for 131 yards and catching for 72 more, has more significance.

Runner Brandon Jacobs is back to fitness for New York but the Eagles held the Giants to 88 rushing yards in that last game and restricted league-leader Adrian Peterson to 83 yards in their win over Minnesota last weekend. Eagles to upset the Super Bowl champs.

Saturday sees two games with slightly less glamour but plenty of grit. First up, at 2130 GMT, is the visit of the Baltimore Ravens to the Tennessee Titans, a re-enactment of a play-off game in 2000, when the Ravens upset top-seeded Tennessee on the way to a Super Bowl triumph.

The two also met in week five this year, the Titans squeaking home 13-10 with a late touchdown, and the closeness of that score shows just how tight this one will be.

Titans veteran Kerry Collins’ short approach may avoid the ball-hawks in the Ravens defensive backfield
Their approaches are similar, with tough defence (Tennessee have the second-best defence in the league in terms of points conceded with 14.6 per game while Pittsburgh are third with 15.3) and two-pronged running games, featuring a slasher and a basher.

The Titans averaged 137.4 yards per game through the fluid moves of Chris Johnson and the bullocking runs of LenDale White. Baltimore rely on Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee.

The difference may be in the passing game, where veteran Kerry Collins’ short approach may avoid the ball-hawks in the Ravens defensive backfield, while young gun-slinger Joe Flacco may struggle under pressure from the Titans front seven. Tennessee in another close one.

Ten years ago, Kurt Warner beat Jake Delhomme in the battle for the starting quarterback’s spot with NFL Europe’s Amsterdam Admirals. They go head-to-head again at 0115 GMT on Sunday as Arizona visit Carolina.

Delhomme leads a side ranked second-best in the National Football Conference, which many feel is better than the team that reached the Super Bowl five years ago.

Warner can be vulnerable under pressure, when he becomes prone to mistakes
He leads an old-school offence, which relies on the running of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart, as well as the deep threat of receivers Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad.

Some have written Arizona off as one of the worst play-off teams ever but they confounded that with a wildcard-round victory over Atlanta last weekend, when their defence held the league’s second-best runner, Michael Turner, to 42 yards.

Warner, who won the Super Bowl with St Louis eight years ago, had been written off after several mediocre seasons. This year he was the second most successful passer in the league, with the help of physical receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

Warner can still be vulnerable under pressure, though, when he becomes prone to mistakes. An interception ended his hopes of victory the last time the Cardinals were in Charlotte in October.

Perhaps Carolina’s defence isn’t as good as the 2004 version but it is good enough to stop Warner and Co and secure a Panthers victory by around 10.

Latest 10 comments

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comment by gycax88 (U8355857)

posted Jan 9, 2009

I don't see SD's line holding up against Harrison and Woodley. Sproles may well get hammered by the 5 linebackers the Steelers have (Polamalu hits like a linebacker, he totally counts). Not discounting his X factor, but I think the Steelers take it.

Arizona will be destroyed in every facet of the game by the Panthers. All they can hope is that Larry Fitz pulls something out of the bag for them.

The Giants/Philly game should be the best one of the weekend. I think the Giants win a close game, but I'm really not sure. Should be fun.

Titans/Ravens will be an all out war. Close call again, but I think the Titans should be able to eke it out because of superior special teams play.

Panthers/Giants
Titans/Steelers

I'm going for a Panthers/Steelers Superbowl, although Panthers/Titans would be great. Anyone seen the Double Trouble website by Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams? It's hilarious, aimed at 'Smash and Dash'. Link below...

http://www.nameswecanbelievein.com/

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comment by mm1971 (U13775278)

posted Jan 9, 2009

Martin Gough, ( bbc sport ) is your sport american football ?? Could've fooled me !! I'm sorry to say, but like most peoples comments, they tend to disagree with your predictions. And so do I !! I am with Southy on this one. Steelers to meet the Giants in the Superbowl. Ravens will beat the Titans ( Titans must be the worst 13-3 team in NFL history ) Steelers to edge the Ravens in a low scorer !! If the Titans do meet the Steelers, Those 2 Titan players who everyone saw on Sky jumping on the ' terrible towel ' will have that rammed down their throats ( sorry, you don't do that sort of thing on national tv ... ) Cardinals cannot win an argument on the road let alone a play off game in Carolina, Giants will beat the Eagles, and should beat the Panthers ( again ) in New York. Overall, the Giants to edge the Steelers. Well, that's what I have bet on !!!

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comment by Laheed (U1955727)

posted Jan 9, 2009

How does this guy have the BBC's American Football blog? He knows nothing!

I actually agree with his picks for the NFC, the game between the Ravens and the Titans is very hard to call. I can see OT in that one but I think the Titans can do it on home field.

But as a Steelers fan, I'm going to take issue with his call on this game. SD by 14 points?!
If you offered San Diego 14 points in TOTAL for that game now, I think they might even take it! Sproles is quick, but we have the best covering Special Teams in the league, and the fastest Line-backers on the outside. If he gets into the secondary Polamalu will munch him. And he's certainly not going to go up the middle! He won't be a factor, at the end of the day he's not a proven player like Tomlinson. I'm much more concerned about Rivers form, but I can't see him enjoying the conditions or LeBeau's blitz scheming that much.

The most annoying thing in the article though is his dismissal of our offence and the ridiculous labelling of a ring-wearing quarterback as a novice. Rothlisberger knows how to do it in the play-offs and his 'inconsistency' is due to our horrendous Offensive Line. Fortunately the Chargers secondary is nearly as horrendous to balance that out. We'll win by controlling the football in the conditions - Parker is pumped for and due a big game and Ben will play action or pass on the run for big gains. And ultimately, the chargers offence will run into the Steel Curtain. 20-10.

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posted Jan 9, 2009

NO WAY DO SAN DIEGO WIN BY 14 or more lol, Steelers win by the biggest margin or 5-6. If Chargers win itl b by 3 ish.
Ravens by a couple, Defence makes enough plays to put a more experienced Flacco in position to win.
Arizona will keep it close 4 a while, and then i think Carolina break it open late on in the game.
NY Giants, beat the Eagles, they can do enough against that Eagles defence, with BJ back.

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posted Jan 10, 2009

Backing San Diego to win by 14???

Either Martin has had a premonition or he's been been drinking the BBC bar dry this week. He does realise this game is in Pittsburgh - in JANUARY - without Tomlinson and against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

As for the ridiculous Roethlisberger comment, if Big Ben is a novice then so must Rivers as they were both drafted in the same year. In fact Big Ben has been a starter since Day 1 while Rivers was a backup to Drew Brees his first two seasons so he's far more a novice than his Steelers counterpart. Delve a little deeper like someone else pointed out and you'll realise his 17-15 TD/INT ratio is far more down to one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. It can neither run nor pass block and is easily the Steelers biggest weakness. Anyone would be a sitting duck behind with that lack of protection. For me its why they will come a cropper eventually as Baltimore and Tennessee both have outstanding defences should Pittsburgh get to the AFC Championship.

Big Ben has won more games as a starting QB in his first five seasons than any other QB in NFL history. A 51-20 record, a career passer rating of just under 90 and a Super Bowl title with the chance of another in the next few weeks is doing quite nicely don't you think.

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posted Jan 10, 2009

"As for the ridiculous Roethlisberger comment, if Big Ben is a novice then so must Rivers".

Eli Manning, last years superbowl winning QB with the Giants was round 1 pick 1 in the same draft. Big Ben is also the youngest ever QB to lead a team to the superbowl and win, so ease up on the 'novice' comments.

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posted Jan 10, 2009

ManUand Wasps

If you had actually bothered to read the entire thread you would see I was challenging Martin's assumption that Big Ben was a novice, not agreeing with it. You have taken what I said completely out of context.

Martin was calling Big Ben a novice (which he clearly ain't with his record) yet didn't tar Rivers with the same brush when he has two years less starting experience. Why attack one but turn a blind eye on the other? Very poor and inconsistent don't you think?

I'm also quite well aware Eli was also taken in that same draft but as we are talking about San Diego and Pittsburgh I can't see how Peyton's little brother is relevant in this discussion.

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posted Jan 11, 2009

Oh my god some people really do think they know everything.

Oh Rivers is a novice, oh the scary Steelers defense will shut out the Chargers.

Rivers may have less starting experience, but Rivers has last year under his belt. This guy got the Chargers to the Championship game almost on his own (no LT and Gates was missing). He almost beat the Patriots and Brady in their own back yard!! What has Big Ben done??????

Roethlisberger has much to prove and is coming of a concussion and does not have the options that Rivers has in his offense.

Steelers are big fav in my opinion but only if the keep the chargers under 20, now way they themselves can relay on an average offense to win them a game where the chargers score more than that.

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posted Jan 11, 2009

Dandie.

Again you are another one completely missing the point of what I'm trying to say.

I'm just pointing out the inconsistency from M.Gough's original article.

If M.Gough is going to call Big Ben a novice then he has to do the same for Rivers, who has two years less starting experience under his belt. He didn't. Why not? It seems to me Gough had a strong Chargers bias in his article. That's what I'm most disappointed with.

I'm not trying to imply Rivers is a novice. Far from it. Neither QB is a novice imo.

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posted Jan 12, 2009

I think you're all missing the point because you didn't read the start of the sentence. I said, "Compared to [Peyton] Manning, Roethlisberger is a novice." Manning is an 11-year veteran with three league MVPs. Compared to him, only Brett Favre doesn't count as a novice. What I was saying was, if the Chargers D could rattle Manning they could rattle anyone.

Roethlisberger's maturity was outstanding last night, though. The Steelers established the run, which prevented San Diego targeting the QB, but he was still left with three key third-and-long conversions on the way to the Billy Miller TD that took them 11 points ahead.

Steelers are a good way better than the Ravens, who had no offence to speak of and would have lost to the Titans had Tennessee managed to hold onto the ball.

Philadelphia v New York was a scrappy one and the Eagles this year don't compare with most of the other five Philly NFC Championship Game sides of the last decade but Eli Manning was having an off day and there was only so many times the Giants could hand off to Brandon Jacobs.

Cardinals v Panthers was past my bedtime on Saturday so I'll catch up with that one during the week. I've a horrible feeling, though, that the NFC has opened up for the Cards.

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