Shortly after sunset GMT on Thursday, Marc Turnesa launches the first drive of the 2009 PGA Tour season and seldom can the outlook be so full of uncertainty.
The economy, Tiger's return, the economy, the Race To Dubai, and, oh yes, the economy all conspire to cloud the future in an unprecedented way.
In clear response to Commissioner Finchem's plea to Tour players to enter more tournaments in goodwill towards sponsors and advertisers, the World's 2,3,4 players join wounded Tiger in avoiding glorious Kapalua, Phil, Sergio and Padraig with other things on their minds. But we still have an elite field of 33 tournament winners and the Tour's appetising 1.10 P.M. tee-time pairing of Anthony Kim and Camilo Villegas will ensure plenty of attention to Maui's "Mercedes-Benz Championship".
The "Mercedes" hasn't been won by an American since Furyk beat Sabbatini in a play-off back in 2001 and I can't see Vijay, Ernie and the rest of 'em allowing that trend to change.
That's this week sussed out then, but what about the rest of the year? Glad you asked. Last year my "Eight for '08" was modestly successful in predicting who might do well so pay attention to the "Seven for '09": (Number of awards reduced due to the economy).
*Player of the Year: (Last year's pick: Tiger.)
2009: Tiger again.
*Comeback Player of the Year: (Last year's pick: Canada - Weir and Ames both did well but not well enough.)
2009: Arron Oberholser: Away from us for the better part of two years Oberholser, is allegedly fit and signed off last autumn with a 4th place at the Fry's Open. Start your betting year with an each-way punt on Arron at Pebble Beach: 4th, 6th, 1st in his last three trips to the "AT&T".
*Rookie of the Year: (Last year's pick: Day, from Flanagan. Jason Day was one good final round away from comfortably retaining his card, but allowed the Turning Stone Championship to get away, and he's presumably back to the Nationwide. Jason: Please get fit first.)
2009: Webb Simpson: Walker Cupper had modest success in a handful of Tour events, and two seconds during a short Nationwide shift. Played well in Q-School and could be one to watch.
And some awards of my own:
*First first-time winner: (2008 pick Tim Clark from Poulter - both had second places).
2009: Graeme McDowell from Paul Casey.
*Breakthrough Player: (2008 pick: Baddeley - who disappointed following Pete Bender's illness.)
2009: Hunter Mahan: Got a taste of how rich the rewards can be at the Ryder Cup; he'll focus on his short game and grab two wins in '09.
*Good Ole Boy: Award cancelled after 2008 pick Bubba Watson faded in the wake of Elkington winding him up in New Orleans. I don't fancy Tommy Gainey so this award is to be withdrawn.
*Best new player never covered by the British Press: (2008 pick Nicholas Thompson finished 41st on the money list.)
2009: Not so bold as last year but under-the-radar '08 winners Dustin Johnson, Turnesa and Parker McLachlan are all expected to shine in 2009.
Finally to the Majors:
Masters: Geoff Ogilvy (from Weir and Harrington): Same pick as '08, but Ogilvy peaked at Doral - he won't make the same mistake this year.
US Open: Woods (If absent Garcia)
Open Championship: Graeme McDowell (from Harrington)
PGA Championship: Woods (2nd at Hazeltine in 2002, one better this time.) Long shot: Oberholser
('08 picks were Ogilvy, Woods, Westwood, Love, all of whom had fine years but only Tiger peaked at the right time - for me.)
So, now you know what's going to happen; you just have to follow the next ten months to discover exactly how.
Meanwhile, Kapalua is on many lists of courses to "Play before you die". I've played there so I guess I'm on schedule. But those lists are correct; tune in this week to discover why.
Happy New Year
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