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NFL picks - week one

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Brett Favre in action for the Jets

According to Burt Reynolds’ girlfriend in The Longest Yard, “Only a moron can sit and watch two football games, one after the other”. I’m not like that. I often watch three.

I’ve been in front of a television for every Super Bowl for the last 24 years, I played a little back in the day (until someone pointed out that there isn’t much call for 5ft11, 155lb linebackers) and I like to think I can still call sweep or a screen pass almost before the quarterback does.

Also, somehow, I managed to correctly call the result of 66% of matches I previewed last year. Unfortunately that didn’t include the Super Bowl or I might have been a little richer.

This year I’m aiming to follow the model of my hero Paul Zimmerman of Sports Illustrated in taking on the closest games each weekend (in my case defined by those you can watch on TV in the UK given the right equipment) and trying to pick a winner.

I’d love to hear your predictions, or you can add them here.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants, Friday 0000 BST

What has became the NFL’s traditional kick-off classic pits the Super Bowl champions against an arch-rival.

New York’s strength last year was their defensive front but that will not be the case this term
And the strength of the NFC East division this year makes every intradivision match-up crucial.

New York’s strength last year was their defensive front but that will not be the case this term, with Michael Strahan retired and London-born Osi Umenyiora out for the season with a knee injury.

The Redskins have had a new look each year since Daniel Snyder took over as owner and this year is no different with Jim Zorn the new head coach and defender Jason Taylor the new star signing.

New York will begin this season where they left off last, though, with a 24-14 win.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, Sunday 1800 BST

Game of the weekend – in terms of story lines at least - has to be the visit of the New York Jets to Miami, where quarterback Chad Pennington is in action for, erm, the Dolphins. His replacement in kelly green is some bloke called Favre, whose passion for action proved too much to keep him in retirement for more than a few months.

Miami were awful last season, winning just one game, but Pennington is just one of the upgrades they have made on offence
The Jets have been splashing the cash after another difficult season, bolstering both offensive and defensive lines, which should allow Favre more time to find his feet.

Miami were awful last season, winning just one game, but Pennington is just one of the upgrades they have made on offence. Running back Ronnie Brown is seeking to prove he is fully recovered from a knee injury that ended his 2007 season but he is currently second on the depth chart behind Ricky Williams, a former top draft pick whose last full season was in 2004, since when he has flirted with retirement, injury and drugs bans.

New York’s defence gives them the edge, opening the season with a 35-21 victory in Dade County.

Other Sunday games

In Sunday’s other early game New Orleans – including new tight end Jeremy Shockey – should begin to prove that last year was an aberration (and whet appetites for their arrival at Wembley on 26 October) as they deal with the under-prepared Buccaneers.

There is some nostalgia in store in the Sunday night game with a re-match of Super Bowl XLI and this one could be closer than expected
To major contenders take the field at 2115 BST. Dallas will have a harder time of it against Cleveland, whose young side might be reaching maturity in time for a run this season but the Cowboys will still come out on tip.

Meanwhile Carolina will be hoping defending NFL rushing champion LaDainian Tomlinson, quarterback Philip Rivers and four-time Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates have yet to fully recover from pre-season niggles. Expect San Diego to puncture those hopes, six weeks away from their appearance in London.

There is some nostalgia in store in the Sunday night game with a re-match of Super Bowl XLI and this one could be closer than expected as Colts QB Peyton Manning is only just back from surgery on his left knee. A stuttering Indianapolis will overcome what could turn out to be a woefully weak Chicago Bears side, though.

Monday games

Another new NFL tradition is the season-opening Monday night double-header, which may have provoked Mrs Reynolds to drive the Maserati into the ocean herself had it been around in the 1970s.

The post-Favre era begins in Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers is likely to be given a baptism of fire by local rivals Minnesota. The Vikes made a move for Favre in the off-season, which struck me as odd given the ability and potential of incumbent QB Tarvaris Jackson.

Then there’s the visit of Denver to Oakland. My colleague Tim Love’s assertion that the Raiders are Super Bowl material will take a battering at some point but it might not be just yet. I’ll stick with Tim for another week at least and give this one to JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden.

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posted Sep 4, 2008

Thought I'd break this

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/8524404/Culpepper-retires-after-nine-NFL-seasons

Also
thanks for the article Martin!
Im relatively big on the Raiders aswell

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posted Sep 4, 2008

Hi Gilly

Shame about Culpepper, who I really enjoyed watching at the start of his career. He was one player for whom free agency did not favours. He suffered that serious knee injury in the final year of his contract with the Vikings and they cut him loose.

I don't think he was terribly amenable to the Vikes at that point but a decade ago he would have had a year or so to stew and recuperate rather than rushing back into action, trying to prove himself with the Dolphins, which he never did.

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posted Sep 4, 2008

Nice article Martin

Just thought I'd point out that the link to the predictions page isn't working (well it isn't for me anyway!)

I'm surprised that no-one was willing to give Culpepper a chance at back up. There's certainly a few teams I feel that could do with an upgrade there.

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posted Sep 4, 2008

Culpepper is a legend. Just thought I'd point out that most of the links on the article don't work. I disagree with most of your marginal predictions, though some are pretty much nailed-on. I think the 'skins will take out the Giants, Dolphins will scrape past the Jets and Broncos will overturn the Raiders. A weekend of misery for Tim, basically.

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posted Sep 4, 2008

Ta, SDGN - rogue spaces in my HTML.

I think starting quarterback and backup quarterback are completely different roles and the latter is perhaps one Culpepper struggles to fit into. It requires a little more humility and adaptability, not to mention the pay cut.

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posted Sep 4, 2008

Philadelphia Eagles 35-14 St Louis Rams :D

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posted Sep 4, 2008

Cheers Martin

Love that film.......have carefully avoided that terrible looking remake hangover

Im a little surprised about Culpepper-it seemed he was in the market to be a backup somewhere possibly in Green Bay.

It seems the few posters here liked him as a player. I have heard a different view which goes something like 'Randy Moss made him look good in Minnesota' and how he was so poor at regognising defences etc that the center had to tell him about blitzes and so on.

Personally I dont know-I do recall that Minnesota being very entertaining in those years and DC had a big arm and could run if needed. It seems that knee injury never really healed and his play dropped off in Miami and Oakland. Shame really.


biggrin

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posted Sep 5, 2008

Martin!
for your attention.let me knoe if your interested
http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/606/A40606012

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posted Sep 5, 2008

Hi Gilly

Not going to manage I'm afraid - I'm in two leagues already and am very cautious about over-committing and looking like an eejit!

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posted Sep 5, 2008

ok if you say so. Tim Love is in it aswell.

Its just a bit of competitive fun

change your mind let me know

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