posted Jul 18, 2008

I think he'll mount a serious green jersey challenge next year, when he won't have the distraction of having to preserve himself a bit for the olympics. He's already exceeded expectations for this year, next year he will be able to set the bar higher and hit the intermediate sprints regularly.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

He didn't say he'd be pulling out, he said he doubted he'd last because he was tired but he probably felt differently when he woke up this morning. If he can get through Wednesdays stage next week then that's it, he's home and dry.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

You don't need to contest intermediate sprints to win the green jersey voodoojon, you need to be able to score points on the hillier stages. Most intermediate sprints are won by the breakaways anyways.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

Assuming he makes it through the mountains, it would seem Cavendish would have to win 4 more stages to win Green. If he goes to Paris i reckon he can take 2 based on the profiles allowing for 1 breakaway win on the flats and maybe Zabel or Friere winning into St. Etienne. The numbers just don't stack up.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

"No sitting on the fence people, can he do it or not?"
Seems like I'm late to the party, and all the best jokes have been taken.
As others have said: He can take it, but he probably won't. Whoever wins green has to survive the Alps, and that probably rules out Cav. Don't forget that these riders don't just have to be able to get over the humps but it do it in a tight timeframe. It's the "within 20% of the winner's time" that does the sprinters in. Sprinters have been known to (a) give up before the stage (Cipollini's specialty) (b) give up halfway through a stage at the advice of their team manager, or (c) just fail to make the cut off.

Looking at the current contenders my top four are Freire, Hushovd, Zabel, and Kirchen. Kirchen is in there because I'd say he has the best chance of the four of them of making it to Paris.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

If it's any help, I'm from the Channel Islands - so I'm not from the UK but I am British, much like Cav.
Also, as far as the myth of Scots being British when they win and Scots when they lose, Cav's first victory was reported in a Scottish tabloid as 'Brit Mark Cavendish became the first British winner of a Tour de France stage since Scot David Millar...' Surely they're either both Brits or one's Manx and the other a Scot.
And most importantly, no I don't think Cav'll be in green in Paris - that's for years to come hopefully.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

Only a select number of riders in any Tour have the ability to win it. You need to be a good time trial rider and a good climber, not a sprinter. All the members of a team have their specific roles and Cavendish (as just about the fastest man in the sport just now) is there for the sprint finishes.

That's his job within the team and it's already job done... and more.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

Another stage in the bag, another 13 points out of Oscar Freire's lead. If he truly means to complete the Tour, if he can take all three flat stages remaining (105 possible points), then I seriously believe that he can pull this off. As has been already mentioned, he needs to negotiate the Alps safely and I really hope it doesn't end with him pulling out halfway up the Lombarde or Alpe D'Huez.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

He will finish the tour, and like any true sprinter now he can see himself winning in Paris. He is pure joy to watch and even listen to.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

Is it not double points on the Champs-Elysee?

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