posted Jul 16, 2008

I think people are ignoring another possibility outside the classic main contenders for GC which is that there are a couple of massive mountain stages due in the Alps and there's always the possibility of a true climber cracking the field and taking big big chunks of time back. I'd have put Soler Hernandez in as a dark horse because of this until he dropped out, but surely it's a possibility - look at the way Rasmussen destroyed Evans last year.

For me the criticism of Evans is a double-edged sword. If he was truly the strongest rather, as opposed to the ablest defensive/tacical rider then there would have been or would be in the future obvious areas for him to stamp this dominance on the race but I can't see any myself. Indurain is probably the apotheosis of the defensive rider, but he could do it because he was pulverising the field in the ITTs and unbreakable in the mountains, I can't see Evans doing either of these things. If the rest of the field aren't strong enough to make time on him when they can and when he isn't setting the road alight when it's his chance to shine then he deserves to win but it will be monumentally tedious. I think however that Schleck and Sastre will have a gameplan for him in the Alps.

So there it is, if he wins it'll be dull but deserved because the other riders have plenty of chances to break him but I still think we should be talking about the Grimpeurs who could climb onto the podium in the next week.


ps Hi Alex.

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posted Jul 16, 2008

I am suprised that nobody has mentioned Riccardo Ricco. He looked very strong going up the mountains in stages 9 and 10 and he is a very good sprinter. He is my tentative choice !!

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posted Jul 16, 2008

i presume all of you evans knockers will be laying at 1.9 on betfair then? dint think so!! evans, menchov, sastre in that order. all this talk of ricco, he has said himself he is not going for the gc and everything else he has said sofar on the tour has been correct (stages he's win, stages piepoli would win)

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posted Jul 16, 2008

Yep....the bookies have it spot on I'm afraid....can't say I warm to Evans, but I felt he was verrryyy impressive on Monday and he'll just "play the Belgian" on the mountains i.e. sit in the slipstream and be carried along and then whip them on the final TT to confirm the Yellow jersey.

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posted Jul 16, 2008

dicey - i've just emailed ricco for my weekend lottery numbers....

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posted Jul 16, 2008

good luck to you omgidbi

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posted Jul 16, 2008

John Ware will win. Cycling king.

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posted Jul 16, 2008

"All this talk of Ricco, he has said himself he is not going for the GC"

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He did before the start of the Tour, though has since changed his mind on the matter, after just riding away from the main GC contenders on the two ascents on stage 9.

"And now people are going to start talking of you as a potential winner"

RR - "We'll see".

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posted Jul 17, 2008

No that Ricco & Co are gone.
Evans is well positioned to keep yellow til Paris.

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posted Jul 18, 2008

tricky with sastre; he is a great rider, but perhaps a combination of not quite having the required level of self-belief compounded by spending a good part of his career as a super domestique. did anyone see him in 'overcoming'? despite his efforts to improve in TTs this is always going to be a difficult area for a rider of his size and weight. csc is a great team though - i guess the internal team dynamic as the tour goes into the alps will be influenced a lot by how sastre is looking relative to schleck

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