posted Jul 10, 2008

Would Cadel Evans at just over even money be more to your liking then ?

4 mins as i'm sure you know is nothing in the mountains when a rider cracks so this to me is still wide open, the bookies and big hitters are banking on Cadel staying strong, so excited about next week i can hardly wait to find out

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posted Jul 10, 2008

I gueess the weight of expectation dragged him down, poor fellow. Always tragic to see those early-tour falls on flat stages - you just knew he would abandon.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

yes - evens for cadel is far better.

please consider this, historically speaking bookies only take a hit when favourites win. this is due to weight of money, not just absolite odds. a quick look at betfair shows me;

there is 35x more money wagered on cadel than ricco.

cadels money weighted average odds are 3.13

riccos money weighted average odds are 70.75

cadel is currently trading approx 1 point better, and ricco 5 points better. therefore is a single bookmaker had written all of the bets he would currently have 7 times the exposure if cadel were to win (at current mark to market). i don't think anyone is sweating on ricco....

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posted Jul 10, 2008

1955 KOM for Charley Gaul, I think.

Won it all in 1958...would be nice to see Kirchen or one of the Schleck brothers do something great to mark that honour.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

But in the context of the Tour De France one rider should not be evens and the other 70/1 especially as Ricco has just finished 2nd to Contador in the Giro, those odds are saying that only one time in 70 that Ricco will make up 4 mins in mountains against Cadel which of course is way out, anything can happen, i think people with a limited knowledge of the sport but with money to burn are following other money and backing a favourite, the last few years are a good guide to getting fleeced when you do this.

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posted Jul 10, 2008

In fairness, it's saying that only one time in 70 Ricco will make up the time on Cadel and all the other GC contenders.

Cadel's odds seem right to me.

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posted Jul 11, 2008

If you are a betting man with plenty of funds in betfair then there is a excellent chance today of some free bets on Ricco, 2 bookmakers are currently 100/1 while on betfair there small amounts ready to be laid at 54/1 and upwards, quite a chunk difference there providing you have a few grand to lay it off on betfair, be worth the while if you can.

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posted Jul 11, 2008

Does anybody else remember a guy who lead a certain Mr Armstrong up mountains year after year. I have a feeling that Big George could be a wild card for this year.

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posted Jul 11, 2008

Hincapie cracked and conceded over 10 minutes today (after working hard for his team, mind) so I'm not sure he's got the legs this year to get up the big climbs.

He'll likely prove me wrong and win Alpe d'Huez, but I just can't see it.

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posted Jul 13, 2008

Well there you go !

There's some crazy punters on betfair, i've just laid off all of Ricco bet at around 5/1 from a massive 70/1 all because of his attack today, there's easy money to be made backing and laying each time the top boys attack or struggle but the initial debate between the 1 out of 70 chance of Ricco beating Evans looks a lot more realistic given the thrills and spills of the TDF

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