posted Jun 19, 2008

Well I'll be £5 down if your right but Coastal Path has looked something special. He does stay two miles as Le Miracle must stay 3 and hs has been disposed of easily. I can't see where the pace will come from anyway. Yeats was at his best when he won the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup in 2006 and I doubt if he will ever reproduce that form again so Coastal Path must have an excellent chance.

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posted Jun 19, 2008

Thanks everyone for filling me in. I'm still in the Geordieland camp for the Gold Cup though. I like Jamie Osbourne as a trainer, the horse has form and i've got a sneaking suspicion that the harder ground will play into Geordieland's hands when he comese charging through in the last 1 1/2 furlongs. I'm sorely tempted to put a 3 point place bet down and a 2 point win. Decisions decisison!

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posted Jun 19, 2008

Has Dar Re Mi withdrawn from the 2nd race?

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posted Jun 19, 2008

Geordie's don't have the guts to win in the big games, he'll look Yeats in the eye and be found severely wanting.

Coastal Path will be dispatched easily. When Yeats comes past him the only thing you will be thinking is "I didn't realise horses could run backwards".

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posted Jun 19, 2008

Being a "Flawed Genius", I am going to create a "Dream Desert" !!

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posted Jun 19, 2008

Geordie's don't have the guts to win in the big games, he'll look Yeats in the eye and be found severely wanting.

Coastal Path will be dispatched easily.
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Could I have been any more accurate? This was the easiest of the 3. Class defined.

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posted Jun 19, 2008

Well I think all the Yeats doubters can start admitting it now - O'Brien's horse is as good as ever! Coastal Path looked like he might be putting up a fight for a little while but Yeats is probably as good a stayer as there ever has been, as well as a group 1 winner over 1m 4f, and there can be no shame in losing to such a horse. Top class performance. Now will he go for a fourth Gold Cup?

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posted Jun 19, 2008

Kuyt: You have said 'this is one of the worst from comparisions you are every lkely to read'.

You are intitled to your opinions. However as I did not explain myself clearly, i'm going to now. The reason why I did not put every bit of form on here regarding this, was becuase it would have taken ages. However I'm going to 'now', so you have the further chance to say this form comparison was rubbish, or such like....

'Geordieland' finished in front of 'Royal and Regal' LTO - A head was the difference (which works out at about a quarter of a pound).

'Royal and Regal' (rec 2lb) was a length and half in front 'Peppertree Lane' at Sandown. After a adjustment of the 2lbs 'Peppertree Lane' was conceding to 'Royal and Regal', that would have meant at level weights 'Peppertree Lane' would have only been half a length behind 'Royal and Regal' in that race at Sandown.

So 'step 1'.... from that I deduce that 'Geordieland' is three-quarters of a length better to 'Peppertree Lane', under those conditions.

Now to step 2....'Peppertree Lane' has finished in front of Alfie Flits last year to the tune of 4 lengths. 'Nicks Nikita' was 2nd, 3 lengths adrift of 'Peppertree Lane'. That puts 'Nicks Nikita' a length in front in front of 'Alfie Filts', on that day. The form is solid, because in a recent race that Yeats won, 'Nicks Nikita' was a neck adrift of 'Alfie Flits' and 'Nicks Nikita' was conceding 2lb. Therefore, at level weights 'Nicks Nikita' would have been in front of 'Alfie Flits' to the tune of about three-quarters of a length in the Yeats race, recently. Therefore, that from is solid as in the races in question here, it proves 'Nicks Nikita' about a three-quarters of a length or 'length' better to 'Alfie Flits'. Therefore, this proves 'Alfie Flits' is a reliable guide on what he achived behind Yeats recently and 'Peppertree Lane' last year.

Therefore, as 'Peppertree lane' was about 4 lengths in front of Alfie Flits last year (the line is solid), and this year I have deduced that 'Peppertree Lane' is about three-quarter of a length adrift of 'Geordieland' based online through 'Royal and Regal', a straight-forward line now would mean through 'Peppertree Lane', 'Geordieland' would be in front of 'Alfie Flits' to the tune of about 4 and three-quarter lengths. That is step 2 and if I didn't lose you at the start, I probably have by now!

Therefore, the last step is adjusting the 'Yeats / Alfie Flits' race recently.

A adjustment of Yeats conceding 7lb (3 and half lengths in distance terms), and the length and three-quarters he was in front of 'Alfie Flits' would mean that Yeats would have been '5 and a quarter lengths' in front of 'Alfie Flits' at level weights.


So to conclude, if 'Alfie Flits' is adrift of 'Geordieland' to the tune of 4 and three-quarter lengths.... and 'Alfie Flits' is adrift of Yeats to the tune of 5 and a quarter lengths.... That would have meant, based on what Yeats achieved on his one run in Ireland this year, he would be in front of 'Geordieland' to the tune of about 'half a length'. That is only one length difference to how far he was in front of 'Geordieland' in last years GC.


That is all I want to type for the moment but at least that clears up (as far as i'm concerned) a bit of the original 'insight', that I clearly didn't make clear.

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posted Jun 19, 2008

Kuyt: What you said was.... 'this is one of the worst form comparision you're ever likely to read'.

I have had the time to re-type your original comment, without mistakes so that is what I have done now.

Unfortuately, I spotted a further spelling mistake in my last message ('From', instead of 'form'). That mistake appears in 'step 2'.

I can also see a reason why at least one sentance regarding the form, might be difficult to read or could be interpretated the wrong way. If you are unsure, you had better say so.

Regarding the comments of Coastal Path in my original post, I said 'If the line through Royal and Regal (based on 3yo form) is accurate, 'Coastal Path' should take this race as you say, and quite rightly so.'

Take more notice of 'IF' and 'IS ACCURATE' in that sentance. Previous years 3yo form can be difficult to interpretate as a lot of it is based around 'weight for age'.

I don't believe in weight for age for NH as it usualy makes no difference.


However for 'flat', some horses do improve from 3yo to 4yo so it was not impossible to suggest Coastal Path 'could' improve from 3yo. 'Royal and Regal' (who ran in that 'CP' 3yo race last year) appears to have improved near enough in accordance with weight for age. It was just a question if 'Coastal Path' would too.

In the second last race that Coastal Path ran in in France, he had 'Le Miracle' and 'Ponte Tresa' adrift. The form is solid. 'Le Miracle' conceding 10lb was 3 and a half lengths adrift of 'Ponte Tressa'. After a adjustment of the weights at a pound for half a length, that would mean 'Le Miracle' is a 3lb better horse to 'Ponte Tressa'. That is exactly as it was last year - Based on last years form, 'Le Miracle' conceding 3lb, has finished adrift of 'Ponte Tressa' in 2 races and the distances adrift of 'Ponte Tressa' for those 2 races were a 'head' in one, and a 'nose' in the other race. That is a difference of 3lb on one run and 2 and three-quarter pounds on the other run, in favour of 'Le Miracle' over 'Ponte Tressa'. So on 3 runs including one run this year, 'Le Miracle' is better to 'Ponte tresa', to the tune of about 3lbs on each race.

Therefore, how they ran in CP's second last race in France is accurate. Based on that, CP was intitled to run in this race.

Based on what CP did as a 3yo, he was entitled to win this race and quite rightly so providing....

1) He adjusted accoringly from his 3yo form at 'weight for age'

2) He stayed.

3) He handled the ground.

Personaly, I think the last 2 points today are debatable, if the horse did.

Kuyt, I think Jose was right in saying about the horse settling being a part. As i'm certain you are aware, the horse being keen probably didn't favour the chances of the horse staying.

I would consider betting on CP on races up to about 2m and on 'good/soft' ground as I think they are what he prefers. I have seen no evidence to suggest anything else so far.

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posted Jun 22, 2008

I hope they don't bring back Yeats next year - we don't want another Persian Punch ending.

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