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Murray's ranking in a couple of months?

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by MrInvisible (U1645512) 13 May 2008
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This time last year Murray was nursing his wrist injury and didn't see any competitive action again until August. Obviously there's the chance to really make some progress in the rankings with no points to defend. But what is a realistic ranking for Murray to have by 2 months time (this is one for the number-crunchers!) based on the following scenarios:

'Pessimistic' - Murray goes out in next round of Hamburg, fails to go further than 2nd round at both Wimbledon and Roland Garros, with a mediocre showing at Queens.

'Realistic' - Either goes out next round/wins 1 more at Hamburg, reaches 3rd round at Roland Garros and 4th Round at Wimbledon. Reaches quarter-finals/semis at Queens.

'Optimistic' - Gets to semis of Hamburg, reaches quarters at Roland Garros and semis at Wimbledon, semi-finalist/finalist at Queens.

Even in the 'pessimistic' scenario Murray will surely get back into top 10 or just outside it...?

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posted May 13, 2008

If those odds were for ranking till the USO, I'd be piling in big time on 4-10, he would have to do well not to make it.
But year end is a little different, he has some quite big points to defend in the final part of the year.

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posted May 14, 2008

I don't think Murray will ever get any higher than #5, myself. But he will definitely be back in the top ten before the end of the season.

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posted May 14, 2008

The one thing that puzzles me in all this is that when Murray burst onto the scene it was claimed in the media that because he had spent much of his time training overseas on clay we could not expect him to be strong at Wimbledon in the way Henman was. However he was likely to be stronger on the red stuff. So far I have seen no evidence that Murray is even comfortable, never mind strong, on clay, so what gives?

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comment by davser (U1195784)

posted May 14, 2008

Murray has always said that hard courts are his best surface.

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posted May 14, 2008

He hasn't always said hard is is best surface, he did toy with the idea of saying clay was, right back when he was a teenager and "British player brought up on clay" was a good tennis story. It rapidly became clear that hard suits him better though.

Agree that it's a total no-brainer that he ought to be in the top 10 by the end of Wimbledon. Those who think otherwise should study the figures.

Also agree that the meat on the odds for him still being there at the year-end comes from the trickiness of defending a decent run at the end of last year, which included one title.

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comment by ritz (U1710511)

posted May 14, 2008

On fast hard courts (esp in the US) I feel Murray is a top 5 player.

(along with Fed, Novak, Davydenko & Blake)

However on slow surfaces such as clay and slow hard courts - he is top 20 player.

He might do ok on grass as many people dont know how to handle the low bounce and cannot move well on it.

I feel on the slower surfaces you need to be a little more aggressive unless you are Nadal. Murray does not do this.

He has a good counter-attacking game and returns well but unless he can be more consistent on his attacking shots (including his serve) he will struggle on the slower surfaces.

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comment by sol517 (U11935861)

posted May 14, 2008

according to my crystal ball, Andy can only reach 3rd round... unless the blisters get worst...

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posted May 14, 2008

Personally I think he is a good top 20 player, but he does rely heavily on his oponents making unforced errors and mistakes. Also what is with the constant injury's, are these genuine or has he just got his excuse for losing in place.

I'm not convinced that a lad his age should be picking up this many injuries, yes some injuries cannot be helped, but he needs to pick up his fitness or show more heart if he is ever to trouble the top 5

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posted May 14, 2008

What an excellent point shabba_Khan! Very appropriate given that next week is the anniversary of the last time he got an injury.

doh

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comment by Anadir (U10230787)

posted May 23, 2008

Clearly he will be top 10 at season end. Exactly where depends on so many factors. As for being injury prone, hopefully those days are behind him, but young athletes who grow in stature quickly often find they have a few years of injuries to overcome. Steven Gerrard in football is a classic case in point. Always injured a few years ago he now only picks up injuries if someone else fouls him.

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